Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3310

Our preference Short positions below 1.3310 with targets at 1.3200 & 1.3145 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.3310 look for further upside with 1.3380 & 1.3415 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1295

Our preference Long positions above 1.1295 with targets at 1.1340 & 1.1360 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.1295 look for further downside with 1.1275 & 1.1250 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7037; (P) 0.7068; (R1) 0.7095; More...

Outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged for the moment. Recovery from 0.7003 is seen as a corrective recovery. Upside should be limited by 0.7121 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7003 will resume the fall from 0.7295 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below. However, sustained break of 0.7121 resistance will dampen this view and bring stronger rise to 0.7206 and above.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we'd treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3298; (P) 1.3324; (R1) 1.3361; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. The rebound from 1.3068 has possibly completed with three waves up to 1.3467. Further decline would be seen back to 1.3068/3112 key support zone. On the upside, though, break of 1.3371 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3467 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3157) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1284; (P) 1.1313; (R1) 1.1334; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first. Rebound from 1.1176 is seen as a corrective move. In case of another rise, upside should be limited well below 1.1419 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1176 will extend the down trend from 1.2555 and target 100% projection of 1.1814 to 1.1215 from 1.1569 at 1.0970 next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress. Bearishness is affirmed by sustained trading below falling 55 week EMA. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 is met. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1569 resistance will now indicate completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3181; (P) 1.3269; (R1) 1.3329; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. As long as 1.2960 support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, firm break of 1.3381 will resume whole rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, firm break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0025; (P) 1.0038; (R1) 1.0050; More....

Fall from 1.0124 resumed after brief recovery. The deeper than expected decline, and stay below 4 hour 55 EMA, suggests that rise from 0.9926 could have completed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for this key support level. Break will carry larger bearish implication. On the upside, though, break of 1.0063 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0124 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9926 support will be the first signal of medium term reversal and bring another test on the trend line.

Market movers today

Markets will continue to digest the outcome of yesterday's UK parliament vote on extending Art.50. Unless a deal is reached at the EU summit on 21-22 March, calls by UK politicians for a longer rather than short extension are likely to grow louder.

In the euro area, we get the final February HICP figures. The preliminary print showed headline inflation increasing to 1.5% y/y from 1.4% y/y in January, while core inflation disappointed at 1.0% y/y from 1.1% y/y in January. We are particularly interested in the drivers of this fall in core inflation, since the continued absence of transmission from wages to consumer prices is becoming an increasing worry for the ECB.

The day also brings data on new EU car registrations for February. Developments in the auto sector remain in focus with production hampered by new emission test standards in autumn and we look for a continuation of the recent months' rebound.

In the US, industrial production is expected to edge higher in February, while the Empire index will give us some hints on how the manufacturing sector fared in March, after some signs of weakness in recent months. Finally, consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is expected to continue its recovery in March after the dip during the government shutdown, boding well for consumer spending.

There is a string of possible rating reviews. Moody's could update Italy's rating. S&P has Finland, Austria and Portugal up for review. Fitch has Norway up for review.

Selected market news

After another dramatic night in the House of Commons, a majority voted to postpone Brexit. If the House of Commons votes to pass May's deal next week, it would be only a short extension, otherwise a long extension may be in the cards. Remember that the EU27 has to grant the extension unanimously, so the response by the EU leaders will be interesting. The EU summit takes place on Thursday-Friday next week.

There was no change from the Bank of Japan this morning. Its QQE was maintained with yield curve control and its forward guidance was unchanged at the meeting which ended this morning in a 7-2 vote. It was one of the small meetings, so no new projections were given for growth and inflation. The BoJ changed its assessment of Japan's economy somewhat. It now recognises that "exports and production have been affected by the slowdown in overseas economies". It kept the sentence that "Japan's economy is expanding moderately" unchanged, though, which highlights that the BoJ expects the global slowdown to be temporary and the recent weak Japanese export figures to bounce back once a trade agreement has been reached between the US and China. Hence, the BoJ is still in a wait-and-see mode.

General Trend:

• Shanghai Property index outperforms amid release of Feb new home price figures
• Macau to extend gaming concessions for SJM and MGM China, gaming sector rises
• Resources and financial companies decline in Australia
• Real Estate, Machinery, Auto and Financial companies rise in Japan
• Little initial reaction seen from BoJ decision, Kuroda press conference awaited (6:30 GMT)
• China passed foreign investment law

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened +0.2%
• (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) extends bilateral swap agreement with Bank of Japan (BOJ): permits the exchange of local currencies between the two central banks of up to A$20B or ¥1.6T

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened flat, Shanghai opened +0.3%
• (CN) China Premier Li: China economy faces new downward pressure; won't let growth slide out of reasonable range; 6.6% growth [in 2018] was hard-won; To cut VAT April 1st
• (US) China-US trade meeting between Trump and Xi to sign an potential agreement to end their trade war not likely until April at the earliest - financial press
• (US) US President Trump: We'll have 'news' on China trade deal in the next 3-4 weeks
• (CN) China Vice Premier Liu He: On Thursday spoke by phone with US Trade Representative (USTR) Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, says China and the US 'get substantial progress on document wording' -Xinhua
• (CN) CHINA FEB NEW HOME PRICES M/M: 0.5% V 0.6% PRIOR (slowest growth since April 2018); Y/Y: 10.4% V 10.0% PRIOR
• (CN) China Feb FDI Y/Y: +6.6%
• (CN) China National People's Congress (NPC) approves foreign investment law; to take effect Jan 1 2020
• (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): To inject CNY20B in 7-day reverse repos (First reverse repo operation in 12 sessions) : Net: CNY20B injection v nil prior
• (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate: 6.7167 v 6.7009 prior
• (CN) China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC's) Yi says bearish reports on firms are normal - Financial Press
• (CN) China may establish Deposit Insurance Agency in the near term - Chinese Press

Japan

• Nikkei opened +0.4%
• (JP) BOJ LEAVES INTEREST RATE ON EXCESS RESERVES (IOER) UNCHANGED AT -0.10%; AS EXPECTED
• (JP) Japan Financial Services Agency to conduct stress tests of banks future profitability and stage interventions to address weak finances of regional banks - Japanese Press
• (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: No citizen is angry because have not hit 2% target, No need to be too focused on 2% [price target] in that sense; If we insist too much on achieving 2% inflation target, things could 'go wrong'
• (JP) Brokerage firms in Japan are preparing for the 10-day holiday for Japan exchanges during the late spring - Japanese Press

Korea

• Kospi opened -0.1%
• (NK) North Korea Dep Foreign Min: No intention to yield to US demands; North Korea said to mull suspending denuclearization talks with US, according to Russia Media
• (KR) South Korea President Moon approval rating declines to 44% (record low) v 46% prior - Gallup Poll
• (KR) South Korea and US Defense Chiefs are expected to meet later in March - South Korea press
• (KR) South Korea Feb Export Price Index M/M: 0.2% v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: -2.4% v -1.4% prior
• (KR) South Korea sells KRW405B v KRW400B indicated in 50-year bonds: avg yield 1.98% v 1.970% prior

Other

• (ID) Indonesia Feb Exports Y/Y: -11.3% v -4.4%e

North America

• (CN) Treasury Sec Mnuchin: working with China on an 'extensive' document; confirms Pres Trump and Pres Xi will not be meeting this m
• (US) Treasury Sec Mnuchin: reiterates supports clean debt ceiling increase; urges Congress to raise debt limit soon

Europe

• (UK) Parliament passes govt motion to extend Article 50, delaying the Brexit date from March 29th; Vote 412-202

Levels as of 1:20 ET

• Nikkei 225, +0.9%, ASX 200 -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.7%; Shanghai Composite +0.9%; Kospi +0.6%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.4%%, Dax +0.2%;
• EUR 1.1328-1.1299 ; JPY 111.90-111.48 ; AUD 0.7093-0.7061 ;NZD 0.6853-0.6821
• Gold +0.2% at $1,298/oz; Crude Oil flat at $58.62/brl; Copper +0.5% at $2.905/lb

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.27% against the USD and closed at 1.1306.

In economic news, data indicated that Germany's final consumer price index (CPI) advanced 1.5% on an annual basis in February, less than market consensus and preliminary reading for a rise of 1.6%. In the previous month, the CPI had climbed 1.4%.

In the US, data showed that the US new home sales unexpectedly tumbled 6.9% on a monthly basis, to a level of 607.0K in January, defying market expectations for a rise to a level of 622.0K. New home sales had recorded a revised reading of 652.0K in the previous month. Moreover, the number of applicants filing for fresh unemployment benefits rose to a level of 229.0K in the week ended 09 March 2019, more than market anticipations for a rise to a level of 225.0K. In the prior week, initial jobless claims had recorded a reading of 223.0K.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1318, with the EUR trading 0.11% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1296, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1274. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1338, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1358.

Moving ahead, investors would await the Euro-zone's consumer price index for February, scheduled to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US NY Empire State manufacturing index and the Michigan consumer sentiment index, both for March as well as industrial production and manufacturing production, both for February, will keep traders on their toes. Additionally, the US JOLTS job openings for January,.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.