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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.75% against the USD and closed at USD15.45 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 15.46, with silver trading 0.06% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 15.39, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.32. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.51, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.57.

The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.44% against the USD and closed at USD57.16 per barrel, after the Energy Information Administration, in its short-term Energy outlook, lowered its projections for US crude production growth. Additionally, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week ended 08 March 2019.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 57.12, with oil trading 0.07% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 56.73, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 56.34. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 57.53, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 57.94.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1252; (P) 1.1279; (R1) 1.1313; More.....

EUR/USD rebounds further to 1.1305. But such rise is seen as a corrective move. Intraday bias stays neutral. In case of further rise, upside should be limited well below 1.1419 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1176 will extend the down trend from 1.2555 and target 100% projection of 1.1814 to 1.1215 from 1.1569 at 1.0970 next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress. Bearishness is affirmed by sustained trading below falling 55 week EMA. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 is met. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1569 resistance will now indicate completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2955; (P) 1.3122; (R1) 1.3239; More....

GBP/USD is staying in range of 1.2960/3350 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, Break of 1.3350 will resume the rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. On the downside, again, sustained break of trend line support will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0056; (P) 1.0085; (R1) 1.0107; More....

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation from 1.0124 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 1.0027 minor support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.0124 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9716 to 1.0098 from 0.9926 at 1.0162 and then 100% projection at 1.0308.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9926 support will be the first signal of medium term reversal and bring another test on the trend line.

EUR/USD recovered recently above 1.1200, but it is facing a crucial resistance near 1.1320. USD/JPY is also approaching a major barrier, which could produce a bearish reaction.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

• The Euro recovered nicely after trading towards the 1.1180 support area.
• There is a major contracting triangle in place with resistance at 1.1300 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/JPY corrected higher after trading close to the 110.80 support area.
• There is a crucial contracting triangle formed with resistance at 111.30 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro fell significantly this past week from well above the 1.1380 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.1240 support level and traded close to the 1.1165 support level.

There was a sharp decline towards 1.1165 and the pair traded as low as 1.1176 on FXOpen. Later, the pair started a slow and steady rise and recovered above the 1.1220 and 1.1240 resistance levels.

There was also a close above the 1.1240 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair formed a swing low at 1.1249 and it recently traded as high as 1.1304. Later, there was a downside correction and the price declined below 1.1290.

It is currently trading near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1249 low to 1.1304 high. To the downside, there are many supports near the 1.1270 level.

More importantly, there is a major contracting triangle in place with resistance at 1.1300 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. Therefore, the pair could soon make the next move either above the 1.1305 resistance area or decline below the 1.1270 support and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1249 low to 1.1304 high.

On the upside, a break above the 1.1305 and 1.1320 is needed for more gains. On the downside, a break below 1.1270 could push the price towards the 1.1235 and 1.1210 support levels.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar faced a strong selling interest near the 112.10 level against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair started a downside move below the 111.80 and 111.50 support levels to move into a bearish zone.

It even broke the 111.00 support and traded as low as 110.79. Later, it recovered nicely above the 111.00 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.85 high to 110.79 low.

However, the previous support area near the 111.50 level acted as a strong barrier for buyers. Besides, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 111.85 high to 110.79 low acted as a resistance.

At the outset, there is a crucial contracting triangle formed with resistance at 111.30 on the hourly chart. Therefore, the pair may soon make the next move either above the 111.50 resistance or below the 111.20 support level in the near term.

If there is an upside break above the 111.30 and 111.50 resistances, the pair could rise towards the 112.00 level. On the other hand, a break below 111.15 and 111.10 may push the pair back towards the 110.80 support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.15; (P) 111.31; (R1) 111.51; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as this point. Consolidation from 112.13 might extend. But as long as 110.35 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and rise from 104.69 is still in favor to resume. On the upside, break of 112.13 will target 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3332; (P) 1.3375; (R1) 1.3398; More...

USD/CAD's retreat from 1.3467 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained by 1.3301 support to bring another rally. Corrective fall from 1.3664 has completed at 1.3068 already. Break of 1.3467 will target 1.3664 resistance then 1.3685 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3139) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7061; (P) 0.7077; (R1) 0.7096; More...

AUD/USD's recovery lost momentum after hitting 0.7091 and dropped notably. But it's staying above 0.7003 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more consolidation could still be seen. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.7121 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7003 will resume the fall from 0.7295 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we'd treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

After much volatility in the past 24 hours, Sterling is staying in familiar range against Dollar, Euro and Yen. UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal was voted down by the Commons. That puts Brexit back into the original path. A no-deal vote will be held today and is expected to be rejected too. The breakthrough could come tomorrow with the vote on Article 50 extension. The UK Parliament might finally tell the world what the majority supports, rather then just what they reject.

The Pound is currently the strongest one for today. Yen follows as the risk appetites fades again. More importantly, global treasury yields dropped rather notably, likely on safe haven flows. US 10 year yield closed at 2.605, just barely defended 2.6 handle. 30-year yield lost 3.0 handle to close at 2.988. Swiss Franc follows as the third strongest so far. On the other hand, Australian Dollar is the weakest one, partly weighed down by deteriorating consumer sentiment. New Zealand and Canadian Dollar are the next weakest.

Technically, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY are staying in range. We'd prefer to see the Pound to break out in the same direction in these pairs, sustainably, before confirming the breakout. AUD/USD's dip today might suggests completion of recovery from 0.7003. And the pair could return to this 0.7 handle ahead. EUR/USD's recovery, while strong, is still viewed as a corrective rise. It should start to feel heavy above 4 hour 55 EMA and lose momentum well ahead of 1.1419 resistance.

In Asia, Nikkei is down -1.36%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.37%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.58%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.75%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0112 at -0.041. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.38%. S&P 500 rose 0.30%. NASDAQ rose 0.44%. 10-year yield dropped -0.038 to 2.605. 30-year yield dropped -0.045 to 2.988.

Sterling staying in range after May's Brexit defeat, no-deal vote next

UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal was voted down again in the Commons overnight, despite the last minute concessions from EU. MPs voted 391-242 to reject the deal, an insufficient improvement from January's 432-202 votes. Now, a vote on no-deal Brexit will be carried out at 1900GMT on Wednesday. If no-deal is voted down, there will be another vote on Thursday for seeking Article 50 extension.

May warned after the defeat. "Let me be clear. Voting against leaving without a deal and for an extension does not solve the problems we face." And, with the government at impasse, she asked "Does it wish to revoke Article 50 (announcing intention to leave the EU)? Does it want to hold a second referendum? Or does it want to leave with a deal, but not this deal?"

EU President Donald Tusk's spokesman said the EU has done "all that is possible to reach an agreement" and the solution "can only be found in London." The results now increases the risk for UK to crash out the EU without a deal. And he emphasized that there needs to be a "credible justification for a possible extension and its duration."

UK CBI: Extending Article 50 to close the door on no-deal is now urgent

In a rather short statement, UK CBI Direct-General Carolyn Fairbairn expressed the frustration on the parliament's Brexit circus. She said: "Enough is enough. This must be the last day of failed politics. A new approach is needed by all parties. Jobs and livelihoods depend on it. Extending Article 50 to close the door on a March no-deal is now urgent. It should be as short as realistically possible and backed by a clear plan. Conservatives must consign their red lines to history, while Labour must come to the table with a genuine commitment to solutions. It's time for Parliament to stop this circus."

EU sets out 10 actions on relationship with systemic rival China

The European Commission sets out 10 actions to discuss regarding the relationship with China. In the statement, EU described China a "cooperation partner" and "negotiating partner". Also, it pointed out that China is a "systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance."

Vice-President, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini, said it's the aim of the actions to "strengthen our relations with China, in a spirit of mutual respect." Vice-President Jyrki Katainen, responsible for jobs, growth, investment and competitiveness, said EU would act to "strengthen its competitiveness, ensure more reciprocity and level playing field, and protect its market economy from possible distortions."

There are a few points within the 10 actions that are worth noting.

• Action 5: In order to achieve a more balanced and reciprocal economic relationship, the EU calls on China to deliver on existing joint EU-China commitments. This includes reforming the World Trade Organisation, in particular on subsidies and forced technology transfers, and concluding bilateral agreements on investment by 2020, on geographical indications swiftly, and on aviation safety in the coming weeks.
• Action 8: To fully address the distortive effects of foreign state ownership and state financing in the internal market, the Commission will identify before the end of 2019 how to fill existing gaps in EU law.
• Action 9: To safeguard against potential serious security implications for critical digital infrastructure, a common EU approach to the security of 5G networks is needed. To kickstart this, the European Commission will issue a Recommendation following the European Council.
• Action 10: To detect and raise awareness of security risks posed by foreign investment in critical assets, technologies and infrastructure, Member States should ensure the swift, full and effective implementation of the Regulation on screening of foreign direct investment.

Australia consumer sentiment dropped to 98.8, pessimists outnumbered again

Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment dropped sharply by -4.9 to 98.8 in March, down from 103.8. That's the lowest level since September 2017. Also, with sub-100 reading, pessimists outnumbered optimists again. The release of the national accounts update is seen as a piece of news that triggered the deterioration. Data collected before the March 6 release showed reading of 100.7. Those collected after showed combined reading of 92.7, down -8. Westpac continues to expect a total of -50bps rate cut by RBA by the end of 2019. And they expect the hikes to happen in August and then November.

Also released in Asian session, Japan machine orders dropped -5.4% mom in January, domestic CGPI rose 0.8% yoy.

Looking ahead

The no-deal Brexit vote in the UK is for sure a major focus. Also, Eurozone will release industrial production. US will release durable goods orders, PPI, construction spending.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7061; (P) 0.7077; (R1) 0.7096; More...

AUD/USD's recovery lost momentum after hitting 0.7091 and dropped notably. But it's staying above 0.7003 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first and more consolidation could still be seen. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.7121 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7003 will resume the fall from 0.7295 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we'd treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Economic Indicators Update