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EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8522; (P) 0.8588; (R1) 0.8701; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.8474 will resume larger down trend to 0.8416 long term projection next. However, firm break of 0.8676 resistance will indicate short term reversal and bring further rise to 0.8840 resistance.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current fall from 0.9305 (2017 high), is a falling leg inside the pattern. Such decline is now targeting 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416 and possibly below. But for now, we'd expect strong support around 0.8312 support to contain downside and bring rebound.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5904; (P) 1.5930; (R1) 1.5966; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. The fall from 1.6765 is probably still in progress. Break of 1.5721 low will extend the decline and target 1.5346 support. On the upside, above 1.6122 will resume the corrective rise from 1.5721.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1354; (P) 1.1369; (R1) 1.1392; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. More consolidation could be seen. But as long as 1.1310 support holds, further rally remains in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1444 will resume the rebound from 1.1181 and target 1.1501 key resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 1.1310 will indicate completion of the rebound. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

Euro Trading A Tad Lower In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.21% against the USD and closed at 1.1289.

The US dollar declined against the euro, amid downbeat US consumer inflation data.

In the US, data showed that the US consumer price index climbed 1.5% on an annual basis in February, for the first time in four months and at its weakest pace in 2.5 years. Market participants had envisaged the CPI to record a rise of 1.6%. In the prior month, the CPI had advanced 1.6%. Moreover, the NFIB small business optimism index advanced to a level of 101.7 in February, compared to a reading of 101.2 in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged the index to jump to a level of 102.0. Further, average weekly earnings rose 1.6% on a yearly basis in February, compared to a rise of 1.9% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1284, with the EUR trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1254, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1223. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1310, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1335.

Going forward, traders would await the Euro-zone’s industrial production for January, slated to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US durable goods orders and construction spending, both for January and the producer price index for February along with the MBA mortgage applications, will garner significant amount of investor’s attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Britain’s Economy Grew Beyond Expectations In January

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 1.26% against the USD and closed at 1.3077, after Britain's parliament rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal for a second time in a vote, increasing the likelihood of a no-deal scenario.

On the data front, UK's total trade deficit widened to £3.83 billion in January, amid decline in automobile production and compared to a revised deficit of £3.45 billion in the previous month. Market participants had expected the nation to post a deficit of £3.50 billion. Further, the nation's industrial production fell 0.9% on an annual basis in January, less than market expectations for a fall of 1.3%. Industrial production had registered a similar drop in the previous month. Also, UK's manufacturing production declined 1.1% on a yearly basis in January, less than market consensus for a fall of 1.9%. In the prior month, manufacturing production had recorded a fall of 2.1%.

On the flipside, Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded 0.5% on a monthly basis in January, surpassing market consensus for a rise of 0.2%. The GDP had recorded a decline of 0.4% in the previous month. Moreover, the nation's construction output unexpectedly advanced 1.8% in January, defying market expectations for a fall of 0.2%. In the prior month, construction output had registered a fall of 2.4%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3084, with the GBP trading 0.05% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2978, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2873. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3216, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3349.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japan’s Machinery Orders Declined At Its Fastest Pace In Four Months In January

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly rose against the JPY and closed at 111.31.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 111.25, with the USD trading 0.05% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that, Japan's machinery orders eased 2.9% on a yearly basis in January, declining at its quickest pace in four months and more than market expectations for a fall of 2.1%. In the prior month, machinery orders had recorded a climb of 0.9%.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.08, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.92. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.44, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.64.

In absence of key economic releases in Japan today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Trading Flat In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.22% against the CHF and closed at 1.0076.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0076, with the USD trading flat against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0055, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0035. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0104, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0133.

With no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investors would look forward to global macroeconomic releases for further directions.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Loonie Trading Flat In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.25% against the CAD and closed at 1.3394.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3394, with the USD trading flat against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3373, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3353. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3427, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3461.

Amid lack of economic releases in Canada today, traders would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence Index Dropped In March

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD marginally rose against the USD and closed at 0.7076.

LME Copper prices rose 1.2% or $75.0/MT to $6510.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 1.2% or $21.0/MT to $1851.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7057, with the AUD trading 0.27% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index dropped 4.8% on a monthly basis, to a level of 98.8 in March. The index had recorded a reading of 103.8 in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7040, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7023. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7083, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7109.

Moving ahead, investors would closely monitor Australia's consumer inflation expectations for March, set to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Gold: Yellow Metal Extends Its Gains In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.60% against the USD and closed at USD1301.00 per ounce, amid weakness in US dollar.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1304.70, with gold trading 0.28% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1297.40, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1290.10. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1308.90, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1313.10.

The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.