Sample Category Title

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1240

The bias on the lower frames is positive above 1.1210, with a risk of a short-lived climb to 1.1280 hurdle, but the overall outlook remains bearish, for a continuation of the downtrend towards 1.1090.

USD/JPY

Current level - 111.19

The intraday bias is slightly positive, for a test of 111.50 resistance area and such a rise should be followed by another leg downwards to 110.10 zone.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2997

Allow a brief consolidation pattern above 1.2960 before drowning towards 1.2845 area. Intraday I favor a rebound towards 1.3050 and even 1.3100 before downward leg unfolds.

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of AUDNZD published in members area of the website. As our members know, AUDNZD has incomplete sequences in the cycle from the January 21st (1.0673) peak. Break of 02/06 low made January cycle incomplete to the downside, which suggesting the pair is now bearish against the 1.05478 peak . Consequently , we advised clients to avoid buing AUDNZD and keep on selling the rallies when given the opportunity. In the charts below, we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave structure, forecast and trading strategy.

AUDNZD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 2.20.2019

As we can see at the charts below, AUDNZD is bearish against the 1.05478 peak . Proposed short term bounce seems to be unfolding as a Elliott Wave Double Three pattern. Recovery has scope to make another leg up toward Blue Box area , where we would like to be sellers against the 1.05478 peak. We recommended members to sell AUDNZD at the blue box ( 1.04563-1.04973 ) for further downside. As we have incomplete bearish sequences in August cycles, we expect sellers to appear at that area for further delcine ideally or 3 wave pull back alternatively. Stop Loss of the trade is a break above 1.618 Fibonacci extension (1.04973 )

AUDNZD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 2.21.2019

The pair has made proposed leg up and found sellers right at the blue box : 1.04563-1.04973 . We have already got decent reaction from the selling zone and calling recovery completed at 1.04853 as (b) blue . As a result members who took short trades are now enjoying profits with risk free positions. While below current short term high and more importantly while pivot at 1.05478 high holds we expect further weakness.

AUDNZD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 2.21.2019

The pair has made proposed leg up and found sellers right at the blue box : 1.04563-1.04973 . We have already got decent reaction from the selling zone and calling recovery completed at 1.04853 as (b) blue . As a result members who took short trades are now enjoying profits with risk free positions. While below current short term high and more importantly while pivot at 1.05478 high holds we expect further weakness.

The USD seems to steady and nudge up a bit as global growth worries increase after the release of a disappointing NFP figure on Friday. The NFP figure came out at 20k far lower than what was expected (180k), yet a drop in unemployment and an acceleration in average earnings softened the blow for the USD considerably on Friday. Analysts point out that worries regarding global growth seem to keep the other currencies under pressure making the USD relatively stronger. The USD may be sensitive the release of the US retail sales for January later today. Please be advised that Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that we might see a rebound in retail sales for January and should the actual rate accelerate more than expected, we could see the USD strengthening. EUR/USD rose on Friday, breaking the 1.1215 (S1) resistance line (now turned to support) and stabilized above it during today's Asian session. We could see the pair maintaining a sideways motion, yet some bearish tendencies could be present should the release of the US retail sales growth rate outperform expectations. Should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we could see it breaking the 1.1260 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.1300 (R2) resistance hurdle. Should on the other hand the pair come under the selling interest of the market, we could see it breaking the 1.1215 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.1165 (S2) support barrier.

GBP weakens as Brexit impasse continues to loom.

The pound weakened against the USD yesterday and opened with a negative gap during today's Asian session as Brexit worries grew. The pound started to weaken on Friday as Theresa May was calling for a last push to break the Brexit deadlock, yet her EU counterparts did not give in. Sterling came under renewed pressure today, as UK foreign minister Jeremy Hunt said on Sunday that Brexit could be reversed if the UK parliament rejects Theresa May's Brexit deal. Analysts point out that speculators are taking short positions for the pound in expectation of the Brexit outcome, which could keep GBP under pressure. Cable tumbled on Friday breaking the 1.3070 (R2) support line (now turned to resistance) and opened with a negative gap during today's Asian session, breaking also the 1.2990 (R1) support line (now turned to resistance). We could see the pair remaining under pressure today, yet it should be noted that the pair's RSI indicator in the 4 hour chart is below the reading of 30, implying a rather overcrowded short position for the pair. Should the bears continue to dictate the pair's direction we could see cable aiming if not breaking the 1.2900 (S1) support line. On the flip side, should the bulls take over, we could see the pair breaking the 1.2990 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.3070 resistance level.

Today's other economic highlights

In today's European session we get Germany's industrial output growth rate for January. In the American session we get the US retail sales growth rates also for January, while in tomorrow's Asian session, we get Australia's NAB Business Survey for January.

As for the week ahead:

On Tuesday, from the UK we get the GDP and Manufacturing Output for January, while the parliament votes on Brexit and from the US the CPI rate for February. On Wednesday, from Japan we get the corporate goods prices for February and the machinery orders for January, from the Eurozone the industrial production for January, from the US the Durable goods order for January and the PPI rate for February and the UK parliament may have another vote on Brexit. On Thursday, we get China's industrial output for January and the UK Parliament may have another vote on Brexit. On Friday, we get form Japan BoJ's interest rate decision, Eurozone's final HICP rate for February and from the US the industrial production for February and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March.

GBP/USD

Support: 1.2900 (S1), 1.2830 (S2), 1.2755 (S3)
Resistance: 1.2990 (R1), 1.2830 (R2), 1.2755 (R3)

EUR/USD H4

Support: 1.1215 (S1), 1.1165 (S2), 1.1125 (S3)
Resistance: 1.1260 (R1), 1.1300 (R2), 1.1340 (R3)

Bitcoin is moving closer to key trendline resistance in early-week trading, with the number one cryptocurrency pressing against the $3,900 level. If bulls can edge price above this key technical area, the BTCUSD pair could easily advance towards the $4,200 and $4,400 resistance levels. Should we see key upside resistance holding, the BTCUSD pair will likely move lower towards the $3,800 and $3,700 support levels.

The BTCUSD pair is strongly bullish while trading above the $3,900 level, key technical resistance is found at the $4,200 and $4,400 levels.

If the BTCUSD pair fails around the $3,900, sellers may test towards the $3,800 and $3,700 support levels.

• Rates: German 10-yr yield reaches lowest level since 2016
  Last week's dovish ECB signal pulled the German 10-yr yield to the lowest level since the end of 2016. A return to negative levels is likely unless growth/activity data picks up. This week's US eco calendar is interesting, starting with retail sales today. Consensus expect a rebound after a weak December. We especially expect market reaction in case of a new disappointment.
• Currencies: EUR/USD avoids break lower, at least for now
  EUR/USD hovered near the bottom of the MT range on Friday. US payrolls were weak and weighed on the USD, preventing an outright break lower of EUR/USD. Still the decline of the dollar was modest. Uncertainty on (global and EMU) growth remains a potential negative for the euro. Sterling will trade more volatile as no Brexit-breakthrough has been reached yet.

The Sunrise Headlines

• US equity markets edged lower on Friday, but proved rather resilient after disappointing payrolls. Asian equities are largely trading in green this morning with Chinese indices outperforming.
• PBOC governor Yi said China and the US are agreeing on crucial issues in trade talks and FX discussions are progressing. Vice Commerce Minister Shouwen added that an enforcement mechanism must be 'two way, fair and equal'.
• PBOC chief Yi said China has more room to lower the reserve ratio for banks, but it's smaller than in previous years. Yi confirmed the PBOC will keep credit growth aligned with the pace of nominal GDP and better support small firms.
• UK Cabinet members are seeking last-minute concessions by the EU so UK PM May can get her Brexit deal through Parliament tomorrow. May is under pressure to announce her resignation if parliament forces an extension.
• Kramp-Karrenbauer, Germany's CDU chief, warned for 'European centralism' in response to French president Macron's 'European Renaissance', as she thinks shifting more powers from national members to the EU level is not a solution.
• The Bank of England asked some UK banks to hold three times more easy-tosell assets to cope with a possible no-deal Brexit market meltdown, so they are able to withstand 100 days of 'severe stress', more than the usual 30 days.
• Today's US eco calendar contains US retail sales and German industrial production data for January. The US kicks of this week's government auctions and sells 3-yr Notes today. BoE's Haskels speaks

Currencies: EUR/USD Avoids Break Lower, At Least For Now

EUR/USD avoids break lower, for now …

EUR/USD initially hovered in the low 1.12 area on Friday, as investors pondered the consequences of Thursday's easing in ECB interest rate guidance. Doubts on growth were the focus for global trading going into the US payrolls report. The jobless rate declined to 3.8% and wages rose a stronger than expected 3.4% Y/Y, but the most important indicator of the report, net job growth, missed the consensus by a big margin. The report initially triggered a further risk-off repositioning, but investors soon deliberated whether this was more than a oneoff. The damage for US equities and for the dollar stayed modest. USD/JPY closed at 111.17 (from 111.58). EUR/USD finished the day at 1.1235 (from 1.1193).

This morning, sentiment on Asian markets is not too bad considering the turmoil at the end of last week. Most indices show modest gains, with China outperforming. Amongst others, markets apparently expect soft growth prospects to potentially being mitigated by soft monetary and fiscal conditions globally. The dollar shows no clear trend with the trade-weighted index near 97.40. EUR/USD (1.1235 area) is holding near Friday's intraday peak. USD/JPY is trading in the low 111 area.

Today (and later this week) markets will keep a close eye on regional and local growth. Activity data even from EMU member countries might have some more impact on euro trading than is usually the case. US retail sales will also get ample attention. A modest rebound (0.6% M/M control group) is expected after an unexpected sharp December decline. The USD reaction function is not that evident as markets will look to the US picture and to the global story. USD/JPY will be most straightforward. The reaction of EUR/USD is less evident, especially in case of a poor figure. EUR/USD is struggling not to fall below the bottom of the 1.12/1.16 MT trading range. After last week's ECB decision, the euro has no prospect on additional interest rate support anytime soon. In this context, it is not evident for EUR/USD to rebound even in case of soft US data. Uncertainty on global growth might weigh on EUR/JPY and on EUR/USD. We remain cautious on EUR/USD long exposure. The single currency needs better EMU eco data. This will probably take time.

There was no break-through on the Brexit negotiations this weekend. So, talks in Brussels will continue today. With no agreement just one day before the key Pariamentary Brexit vote, uncertainty on the political developments in the UK is again growing. Is PM May's job again at risk? We expect sterling investors to remain mostly side-lined. That said, low visibility and the risk of a binary/negative outcome are in theory sterling negative

EUR/USD: struggles not to fall below the 1.12 range bottom

Pivot (invalidation): 2730.00

Our preference Long positions above 2730.00 with targets at 2761.00 & 2771.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 2730.00 look for further downside with 2722.00 & 2714.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further advance.

Pivot (invalidation): 11522.00

Our preference Short positions below 11522.00 with targets at 11370.00 & 11295.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 11522.00 look for further upside with 11567.00 & 11600.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Pivot (invalidation): 5.4540

Our preference Short positions below 5.4540 with targets at 5.4220 & 5.3930 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 5.4540 look for further upside with 5.4740 & 5.4890 as targets.

Comment The break below 5.4540 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 5.4220.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.7050

Our preference Short positions below 0.7050 with targets at 0.7020 & 0.7000 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.7050 look for further upside with 0.7065 & 0.7090 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 0.7050 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.7020 remains high.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3400

Our preference Long positions above 1.3400 with targets at 1.3445 & 1.3465 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.3400 look for further downside with 1.3370 & 1.3350 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.