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In CBS's 60 Minutes show, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that current interest rates are "appropriate" while inflation is "muted". He also described the current rate setting as "roughly neutral". Fed is patient regarding policy adjustment and that means "we don't feel any hurry to change our interest rate policy".

On the economy, he said "the outlook for the U.S. economy is favorable." And, "the principal risks to our economy now seem to be coming from slower growth in China and Europe and also risk events such as Brexit."

Powell added that "what's happened in the last 90 or so days is that we've seen increasing evidence of the global economy slowing down" and "we're going to wait and see how those conditions evolve before we make any changes to our interest-rate policy."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-VZf43VysU

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According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended March 5,  NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +21 130 contracts to 348 801 for the week. Speculative long positions rose +11 421 contracts while shorts declined -9 709. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for gasoline fell -9 698 contracts to 83 866, while NET SHORT  for heating oil gained +3 942 contracts to 12 770 contracts for the week. NET SHORT for natural gas futures added +1 836 contracts to 49 352 contracts for the week. Yet, bets for both longs and shorts gained for the week.

On the precious metal complex, NET LENGTH for both gold and silver futures declined last week. For the former, speculative long positions plunged -34 207 contracts, while shorts rose 13 471, resulting in an fall in NET LENGTH, by -4 7678 contracts, to 88 018 contracts. For silver futures, speculative long positions slipped -14 017 contracts while shorts jumped +11 775. These resulted in a fall in NET LENGTH, by -25 792 contracts, to 32 521 contracts.  For PGMs, NET LENGTH of Nymex platinum futures increased +5 718 contracts to 21 463 while that for palladium slid -636 contracts to 13 628.

EUR/USD. The pair collapsed on Thursday, March 7, after the ECB announced that it was not worth waiting for the increase in interest rates this autumn. The earliest when this can happen is 2020. In addition, it became known that the European regulator plans to launch LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) in September - a program to refinance European banks at low interest rates. If we add the reduction in forecasts for GDP and inflation to this, as well as statistics on foreign trade of China that are not the best for the Eurozone, the picture for the European currency is rather sad.

As a result, by mid-Friday, the pair slipped to the values of summer 2017 (1.1175), literally jumping out of the medium-term corridor 1.1215-1.1570. However, data on the US labor market published on March 8 (NFP) allowed the bulls to turn the trend up. After the number of new jobs amounted to 311K in January, it was expected that in February this figure would be equal to 180K. In reality, the result turned out to be many times worse, only 20K, which made it possible to once again talk about stagnation in the US economy and to return the pair to the level of 1.1235;

GBP/USD. As expected by most analysts (60%), on the eve of the re-vote in the UK Parliament on the EU deal, which should occur on March 12, the pound continued its decline, losing about 200 points in a week and reaching values in the 1.3000 zone;

USD/JPY. Recall that last week about 20% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 already gave signals this pair was overbought, which allowed us to expect a fairly strong downward correction. This is what happened in reality, the yen almost won back the losses of the last week of February and ended the five-day period at the level of 111.15;

Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has been slowly and not very confidently, but still growing for the last month and a half. Somebody, of course, may have some hopes out of the growth of 16%. But, if you look at the chart, it is clearly visible that any efforts of the bulls immediately meet with active resistance from the bears, who categorically do not want to release the main cryptocurrency beyond the 15-week highs. Therefore, it is still possible to talk about the consolidation of BTC in the $3,900 zone.

As for the capitalization of the crypto market, here everything looks quite prosaic and monotonous: starting from the end of December, its volumes fluctuate in a fairly narrow range from $110 billion to $135 billion (not counting a one-time surge to $141 billion).

Of the top altcoins, Litecoin (LTC/USD) has shown the most visible growth, having added almost 90% in a month and a half. For Ethereum (ETH/USD), this indicator looks much more modest: plus 30%, while for Ripple (XRP/USD) the increase was only 10%.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

The week March 11 to 15 will literally be filled with events, each of which can not only cause an increase in volatility, but also lead to a change in the trends' direction.

So, on Monday, March 11, a meeting of eurozone finance ministers will be held in Brussels. And on the same day in the evening, the data on the US "retail sales control group" will become known, which, according to forecasts, may slightly strengthen the dollar.

Tuesday will also see the publication of economic statistics from the United States, this time it will be the consumer price index. Attention should be paid to the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, J. Powell on monetary policy. On Wednesday, we are expecting a report on the UK budget, as well as statistics on retail sales and industrial production in China. On Thursday, we will learn what is happening with consumer prices in Germany, and on Friday we will hear Haruhiko Kuroda's comment on the prospects for the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.

But all these rather important events fade before what should happen on Tuesday, March 12, in the capital of the United Kingdom. It is on this day that a second vote will be held in the British Parliament on the terms of Brexit, and, in the event of another failure of Prime Minister May, lawmakers will be able to vote on March 13 to postpone the negotiations and postpone Brexit to a later date. Theoretically, even a second referendum on the exit of the UK from the EU is not excluded.

These votes can affect not only the quotes of the major world currencies, but also the future of the world economy as a whole. In the meantime, analysts' opinions are as follows:

EUR/USD. 60% of experts, supported by almost 90% of oscillators and trend indicators, expect the euro to further fall to the 1.1100-1.1125 zone. It should be noted that in the transition to the forecast for the second half of March, 60% of analysts are already siding with the bulls, waiting for the pair to return to level 1.1400-1.1500;

GBP/USD. 65% of the experts have now voted for the decline of the pair to the level of 1.2850-1.2900. However, in the transition to longer-term forecasts, as well as in the case of the euro, the majority (60%) expects the British currency to strengthen and rise to the maximum of February (1.3350) and then 200 points higher;

USD/JPY. Despite the fall of the pair last week, it remains within the ascending channel, which began at the very beginning of January 2019. That is why 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will overcome the bar at 112.00, after which it is expected to move in the side channel 112.25-113.70, as it was last November-December.
The alternative point of view is supported by 40% of experts, who believe that the pair has not yet reached its local bottom, which is in the zone of 109.70-110.10;

Cryptocurrencies. There is a saying "Many men, many minds". A well-known crypto trader and one of the top authors on TradingView under the pseudonym MagicPoopCannon has conducted a survey among his followers on Twitter, asking them to give an answer regarding the long-term price of Bitcoin. About 3 thousand subscribers took part in the voting.

According to their answers, the majority (42%) believes that over the next four years, the price of Bitcoin will be in the interval between $100,000 and $1 million, 30% called a number between $20,000 and $100,000, 13% in the range from $3.000 to $20.000 and 15% predicted this cryptocurrency the darkest future, calling the range from $0 to $3,000.

As for the forecast for the near future, according to most experts, the BTC/USD pair will most likely continue to move in the $3,600-4,300 range, waiting for some really serious news that will help break through the boundaries of this channel in any direction.

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 5, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained although bets decreased on both sides. With the exception of NZD, all major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. Although the market has trimmed expectations of a rate hike this year, the more dovish stances of some other centrals banks (such as BOC and ECB) lent support to the greenback. Speculative longs on USD index fell -6 925 contracts while shorts dropped -8 726, raising NET LENGTH, by +1 801 contracts, to 33 714.

Concerning EUR and GBP futures, speculative long positions for the former gained +12 075 contracts while shorts rose +17 786 contracts, raising NET SHORT to 78 166 contracts for the week. NET SHORT for GBP futures dropped -4 334 contracts to 34 929. Speculative longs were down -5 123 contracts while speculative shorts fell -9 457 contracts for the week. Despite the sharp rebound over the past weeks amidst rising chance of extension of Art. 50, the outlook for sterling remains uncertain. The UK parliament is set to vote on a new Withdrawal Agreement in the coming week. Rejection of which would lead to a vote on whether no-deal Brexit would be accepted. MPs have indeed indicated their intention for rejection for no-deal in a non-binding bill earlier this month. It is very likely that the MPs would pass the bill extension of Art. 50 afterwards.

On safe-haven currencies, Net SHORT for CHF futures dropped -1 245 contracts to 24 104. NET SHORT for JPY futures gained +11 652 contracts to 51 306 during the week. Bets rose on both sides.

On commodity currencies . NET SHORT for AUD futures rose +4 998 contracts to 40 741. Speculative long positions gained +3 795 contracts while shorts surged +8 793 contracts. NET LENGTH for NZD futures added +507 contracts to 1 421, with increase in longs outweighing that of shorts. NET SHORT for CAD futures climbed +1 267 contracts to 40 444. Bets were trimmed on both sides

EUR/USD dropped sharply to 1.1176 last week and breach of 1.1215 low indicates resumption of down trend from 1.2555. As a temporary low is formed, initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.1419 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1176 will target 100% projection of 1.1814 to 1.1215 from 1.1569 at 1.0970 next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress. Bearishness is affirmed by sustained trading below falling 55 week EMA. 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 is met. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1569 resistance will now indicate completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

In the long term picture, the rejection from 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 argues that long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) might not be over yet. EUR/USD is also held below decade long trend line resistance. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 should at least bring a retest on 1.0339 low. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1569 resistance holds.

USD/JPY edged higher to 112.13 last week but dropped sharply since then. Initial bias remains on the downside this week with focus on 110.35 support. With 110.35 support intact, near term outlook remains bullish and rise from 104.69 is still in favor to resume. On the upside, break of 112.13 will target 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD's pullback from 1.3350 extended to as low as 1.2990 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for trend line support (now at 1.2971) first. Decisive break there will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.3184 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3350.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

In the longer term picture, current development argues that corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low) is extending with another rise. But there is no change in the long term bearish outlook as long as 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 at 1.5466 holds. An eventual downside breakout through 1.1946 is still in favor in the long term.

USD/CHF rose further to 1.0124 last week but formed a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. The break of 1.0098 indicates resumption of rise from 0.9716. Hence, retreat from 1.0124 should be contained by 1.0027 minor support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.0124 will target 61.8% projection of 0.9716 to 1.0098 from 0.9926 at 1.0162 and then 100% projection at 1.0308.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9926 support will be the first signal of medium term reversal and bring another test on the trend line.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we'll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

AUD/USD dropped to 0.7003 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidation first. Current development suggests that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. Upside of recovery from0.7003 should be limited by 0.7121 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7003 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 and below.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we'd treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.