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The RBA Left Its Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged At 1.5%

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.06% against the USD and closed at 0.7089.

LME Copper prices declined 2.3% or $152.0/MT to $6420.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.6% or $31.0/MT to $1859.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7074, with the AUD trading 0.21% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data revealed that Australia’s AIG performance of services index advanced to a level of 44.5 in February, compared to a reading of 44.3 in the previous month. Further, the nation’s seasonally adjusted current account deficit narrowed more-than-expected to A$7.20 billion in 4Q18, following a revised deficit of A$10.80 billion in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the CBA services PMI declined to a level of 48.7 in February, following a level of 49.3 in the preceding month.

The Reserve Bank of Australia, in its latest monetary policy meeting, kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. In a statement following the meeting, the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, highlighted an upbeat assessment of the Australian economy and stated that the low rate continued to support the economy. Further, he added that he expects unemployment rate to edge down and expects the economy to grow by 3.0% this year.

Elsewhere in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, the Caixin services PMI declined to a level of 51.1 in February, more than market expectations for a fall to a level of 53.5. In the prior month, the PMI had recorded a reading of 53.6.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.706, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7045. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7095, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7115.

Looking forward, investors would await Australia’s gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2018, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Gold: Yellow Metal Reverses Its Losses In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.78% against the USD and closed at USD1287.70 per ounce, amid strength in the greenback.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1289.70, with gold trading 0.16% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1283.03 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1276.37. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1297.13, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1304.57.

The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Silver: White Metal Trading On A Stronger Footing In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 1.08% against the USD and closed at USD15.11 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 15.17, with silver trading 0.43% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 15.07, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.96. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.29, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.40.

The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Crude Oil: Oil Trading Lower, Ahead Of API’s Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles Data

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.61% against the USD and closed at USD56.39 per barrel, amid OPEC-led output cuts.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 56.32, with oil trading 0.12% lower against the USD from yesterday's close, on the back of weak demand growth outlook.

The pair is expected to find support at 55.75, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 55.19. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 56.94, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 57.57.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1305; (P) 1.1345; (R1) 1.1382; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.1316 minor support. Firm break there will indicate completion of rebound from 1.1234. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1215 low. On the upside, break of 1.1410 resistance will extend the rebound from 1.1234, which is a leg in the consolidation pattern from 1.1215, to 1.1514 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3146; (P) 1.3201; (R1) 1.3237; More....

GBP/USD's retreat from 1.3350 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat could be seen but downside should be contained by 1.3109 support to bring anther rally. On the upside, On the upside, break of 1.3350 will extend the rise from 1.2391 to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. Sustained break will pave the way to 1.4376. However, break of 1.3109 will turn focus back to 1.2773 near term support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will turn focus back to 1.2391 low and then 1.1946.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9969; (P) 0.9995; (R1) 1.0015; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. Firm break of 1.0024 minor resistance suggest that the pull back from 1.0098 is completed. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.0098. On the downside, below 0.9926 will extend the corrective fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9716 to 1.0098 at 0.9862. We'd look for bottoming signal again below there.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9716 will dampen this bullish view and at least bring deeper fall to 0.9541 key support.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.59; (P) 111.80; (R1) 111.96; More...

USD/JPY is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias remains on the upside with 111.50 minor support intact. Current rise from 104.69 should target 114.54 resistance next. On the downside, below 111.50 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 110.35 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, current strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Focus now turns back to 114.54 resistance, decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7074; (P) 0.7092; (R1) 0.7110; More...

AUD/USD lost downside momentum ahead of 0.7054 support and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7054 support will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 0.7235, h: 0.7295, rs: 0.7206). That should confirm completion of rebound from 0.6722. Further decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.7206 will turn focus back to 0.7295 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we'd treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3274; (P) 1.3306; (R1) 1.3338; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside with focus on 1.3340 resistance. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder bottom pattern (ls: 1.3180, h: 1.3068, rs: 1.3112). That should indicate completion of pull back from 1.3664. In this case, further rally should be seen back to 1.3664 high. On the downside, though, break of 1.3235 minor support will turn bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3118) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.