Sample Category Title

US ADP private sector employment rose by 155k in March, exceeding expectations of 120k. There were 24k positions added in goods-producing sectors and 132k in services.

Employers of all sizes contributed to the growth, with small firms leading the way, adding 52k jobs, followed by large and medium-sized businesses with 59k and 43k respectively.

Despite the strong employment numbers, wage growth continued to decelerate. Year-over-year pay gains slowed to 4.6% for job-stayers and 6.5% for job-changers. The premium for switching jobs fell to 1.9 percentage points—the lowest in the series since September.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson commented that despite "policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers," the headline job number was a positive indicator for the economy and businesses of all sizes.

Full US ADP release here.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned today that a global trade war could cause a sharp resurgence in inflation and weigh heavily on growth.

In a speech, she highlighted that a severe disruption in global trade flows could lift inflation by several percentage points in the early years.

She added that even a "mild decoupling" scenario would still have a meaningful impact—adding up to 1% to inflation and taking years to unwind.

ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the global effects of US-led tariffs will be “negative,” though the extent of the damage depends heavily on the scope, duration, and targeted products.

In an interview with Ireland’s Newstalk radio, she emphasized that the broader implications for global trade and growth would vary, but the potential for lasting disruption is real.

Lagarde also noted that history shows such trade escalations often end in talks rather than prolonged battles.

“Quite often those escalation of tariffs, because they prove harmful, even for those who inflict it, lead to negotiation tables,” she said, suggesting that any initial damage might eventually give way to diplomatic resolutions and the removal of trade barriers.

• Gold gains nearly 20% year-to-date due to safe-haven flows.
• Trump’s tariff policies are fueling inflation and recession fears.
• Investors expect three quarter-point rate cuts by the Fed in 2025.
• But regardless of the Fed’s stance, gold may be destined to climb higher.

Tariffs are fueling Gold’s engines

Gold has been the best performing asset year-to-date, gaining nearly 20% and breaking record high after record high. The S&P 500, Treasury yields, and the US dollar are in the red, with Bitcoin suffering even more.

At this point it is worth noting that recently, equities have been positively correlated with the US dollar. The reason why this has been the case is the same reason why gold has been flying sky high, and it is no other than recession fears due to Trump’s tariff rhetoric and policies, as well as the broader uncertainty his policies are generating.

Although reports around a week ago suggested that Trump will adopt a softer and more flexible stance than previously anticipated on April 2, when the reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to take effect, the US President himself said last Wednesday that he is planning to proceed with a 25% levy on imported cars and light trucks on April 3. Duties on auto parts will take effect on May 3. And as if this was not enough, during this weekend, a report hit the wires saying that Trump will consider higher tariffs against a broader range of countries, as he aims at correcting trade imbalances against the US.

Recession fears intensify ahead of “Liberation Day”

Initially, investors were afraid that tariffs would refuel inflation. However, although this still may be the case, they have lately shifted their focus on the impact Trump’s trade policies may have on the world’s largest economy. Following the latest toughening of Trump’s stance, Goldman Sachs is now projecting a 35% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, while the Atlanta Fed has revised down its GDPNow model estimate for Q1 to -3.7%.

The heightening concerns about deep wounds in US economic activity have prompted investors to bring back to the table some of the rate cut bets they recently removed. Currently, they are pencilling in around 75bps worth of additional rate cuts by the end of the year, even though the Fed’s latest dot plot continued pointing to only two quarter point reductions.

And indeed, with the core PCE price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation metric, surging to 2.8% y/y in February, the path of monetary policy from here onwards is far from being crystal clear. The Fed may find itself between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, they need to safeguard the economy, and on the other, they need to make sure that inflation does not get out of control again.

Gold could continue exploring uncharted territory

Either way, in the current landscape, it may be a win-win situation for gold. If the Fed decides to hold interest rates steady, investors may become even more worried, as high borrowing costs could be an extra drag for the economy. They could then buy more gold due to its safe-haven status. On the other hand, an accelerating rate reduction process may reduce even further the opportunity cost for holding the precious metal, which is again positive.

The fact the Peoples’ Bank of China (PBoC) continued buying gold in February for the fourth straight month may be another important factor underpinning gold. Chinese officials may be willing to continue adding to their reserves in an attempt to further loosen their dependency to the US dollar in order to minimize the economic damages from an escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Correction is likely, but broader uptrend remains well intact

From a technical standpoint, gold hit a new record high near $3,150 on April 1, before pulling back. The prevailing uptrend remains well intact and very strong, with both the RSI and the MACD pointing to strong upside momentum.

The announcement of tariffs today and tomorrow may result in a “sell the fact” market reaction, but the uncertainty about Trump’s future trade policies may allow the bulls to jump back into the action from near the $3,067 zone, marked by the inside swing high of March 20. If this is the case, a rebound could aim for another test near the all-time high of $3,150, the break of which could allow extensions towards the $3,200 zone. That zone is the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level of the October 30 – November 14 correction.

For the outlook to start shifting to bearish, a decisive dip below the round number of $3,000 may be needed. Such a move would confirm a lower low on the daily chart, as well as the break below the near-term uptrend line drawn from the low of December 30. This scenario may materialize if Trump’s actions turn out to be way softer than what he initially signalled.

• EURUSD’s recovery attempt stalls near 20-SMA.
• Short-term outlook is fragile; support at 1.0732-1.0770.

EURUSD held a muted tone, struggling to break past the 1.0800 mark as traders braced for the upcoming US reciprocal tariffs set to be unveiled on Wednesday night. Uncertainty lingers over whether the US president will adopt a conciliatory approach or escalate tensions with a hardline trade stance, potentially igniting fresh concerns in an already fragile geopolitical landscape.

From a technical standpoint, the pair could face renewed downside pressure if support around 1.0770 – where the lower boundary of a bullish channel and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest upward move reside – fails to hold. A sharper bearish signal could emerge if the price dips below the 200-day SMA, which acted as a floor last week at 1.0732. A decisive close beneath this level could activate fresh selling orders, pushing the pair toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0660 or down to the tentative support trendline near 1.0600. If selling momentum intensifies, the next key destination could be the 1.0530 region.

While the downward tilt in technical indicators sends a cautionary signal, the RSI has yet to cross below its neutral 50 mark, leaving room for a potential rebound. If the price manages to break through resistance at the 20-day SMA around 1.0840, bullish momentum could return, shifting focus toward the 1.0925-1.0950 range. A further advance past this zone would bring the 1.1000-1.1050 resistance area into play, and a breakout here could accelerate gains toward the 2024 highs near 1.1175-1.1200.

In summary, EURUSD remains trapped in a neutral zone, and unless it firmly establishes support above 1.0732, the risk could tilt back to the downside.

Market Picture

The crypto market cap was virtually unchanged over the past day, remaining near the $2.70 trillion level. Media reports suggest that all markets are frozen in anticipation of the tariffs and bracing for volatility. We see this as a continuation of a prolonged pause, allowing the bears to accumulate liquidity before a new attack. We will see confirmation of this bearish scenario if market capitalisation falls below $2.62 trillion – the area of previous lows.

The Crypto Market Sentiment Index jumped 10 points to 44 because of the lull, which is close to the upper limit of the fear zone. However, this rise is due to a pause in the sell-off rather than an active recovery.

Bitcoin gained more than 3.5% on Tuesday but paused near $85,300. Once again, the upside momentum was lost on the approach to the 200-day moving average, which is now above $86,400. This is a case where the lack of growth is setting the stage for a decline. At the same time, we prefer to look at Friday’s employment data rather than tariffs to find the fundamental reasons for the next move. The former is a more reliable source of information.

News Background

Several on-chain indicators point to a gradual shift in sentiment, a return to buying and ‘structural strength in the market’, notes Bitcoin Magazine Pro. However, BTC remains ‘closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets’.

Cycle tops occur every four years in November-December. There is scope for the pattern to repeat itself this year, with Bitcoin rising to $150,000, the Cyclop analyst expects.

Tether, which issues the USDT stablecoin, bought 8,888 BTC for $734 million, bringing its reserves to 92,646 BTC. In line with its strategy, Tether adds to its reserves at the end of each quarter.

On 1 April, around ten small-cap altcoins, such as ACT, DEXE and HIPPO, saw their prices plummet by up to 50%. The community linked the crash to market maker Wintermute’s sell-offs, but the company’s founder denied its involvement in the collapse.

Gold prices remain firm and hold above $3100 for the second consecutive day, after the metal hit new record high at $3149 on Tuesday.

Strong safe haven demand on high economic and geopolitical uncertainties continues to lift gold price, which advanced over $400 since President Trump started his term in the White house.

The yellow metal ended March with over 9% gains that marks the biggest monthly gain since August 2011 and was up over 18% in the first three months of the year.

All eyes are now on President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs (due today at 20:00 GMT) which is expected to generate strong direction signal.

If Trump decides to act according to his promises during the past few weeks and announce implementation of full package of new tariffs on various countries (in addition to existing tariffs), gold would appreciate further in such scenario.

Violation of immediate barriers at $3149/57 to expose targets at $3171 and $3200, with stronger acceleration higher not ruled if markets anticipate that consequences of escalating trade war will be dramatic.

Additional support to metal’s price would come from worsening situation in Ukraine following warnings of peace talks failure, as well as deteriorating economic conditions in US and EU, following recent discouraging economic data.

On the other hand, softer tariff rhetoric from Trump would ease bullish pressure and probably deflate gold price, though dips likely to be limited as overall picture is still very bullish, with other factors fueling safe haven demand, remaining firmly in play.

Broken $3100 level reverted to initial and solid support, followed by rising 10DMA ($3062), and Fibo 38.2% of $2032/$3149 ($3028), with $3000 level (psychological / higher base) likely to contain extended dips and keep larger bulls in play.

Res: 3149; 3157; 3177; 3200.
Sup: 3108; 3100; 3062; 3028.

As shown on the XAU/USD chart today, gold prices are fluctuating near their all-time high, set when the price of an ounce surpassed $3,140 for the first time in history.

Gold has risen by approximately 19% in the first three months of 2025.
Why Is Gold Rising?

On 2 April, traders' sentiment is driving gold prices higher in anticipation of US President Trump’s tariff announcements, expected later this evening.

This event enhances gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, as concerns grow that Trump’s aggressive trade policies could slow global economic growth and fuel inflation.

Additionally, media reports highlight strong demand for gold from central banks, while exchange-traded funds linked to the precious metal are seeing capital inflows from investors concerned about geopolitical uncertainty.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

Gold price movements have formed two ascending channels in 2025: a broader blue channel and a steeper purple channel.

Notably, gold is currently trading near the midpoints of both channels, indicating that supply and demand may have reached equilibrium after buyers broke through resistance around $3,088 (marked by an arrow).

It is likely that XAU/USD will exhibit low volatility until news about Trump’s tariffs emerges. This could trigger sharp price movements, with a potential test of the purple channel’s boundaries in the near future.

Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads. Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The EUR/USD pair continues its gradual decline, erasing its recent technical rebound and retreating to 1.0795. Traders remain cautious as key economic and political developments loom.

Key factors driving the EUR/USD movement

Today (2 April) marks a critical date for global markets as new US tariffs on trading partners take effect. Investors are closely watching for President Donald Trump’s final decision, which could escalate trade tensions.

Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that these tariffs could serve as leverage, pushing partner countries to negotiate lower duties. Meanwhile, recent US economic data has added to the uncertainty:

• Manufacturing activity contracted in March (the first decline of 2025)
• Prices increased for the second consecutive month, reflecting tariff-driven inflationary pressures
• Job openings declined in February, though layoffs remained low, indicating a potential cooling in the labour market

Market focus now shifts to Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will shape expectations for the Fed’s next interest rate decisions.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD

H4 chart analysis

• The pair declined to 1.0784 before correcting to 1.0825
• The next likely move is a continued downward trend towards 1.0695 (first target)
• A pullback to 1.0825 (testing from below) may follow (second target)
• MACD confirmation: the signal line remains below zero, pointing sharply downward and supporting further bearish momentum

H1 chart analysis

• The pair is forming the fifth leg of a downward wave, targeting 1.0695
• A short-term decline toward 1.0715 is expected today, possibly followed by a correction to 1.0772
• Stochastic oscillator confirmation: the signal line is below 50 and trending downward towards 20, reinforcing bearish momentum

Conclusion

With trade war risks resurfacing and mixed US economic signals, the EUR/USD remains under pressure. A break below 1.0695 could open the door for deeper declines, while a rebound above 1.0825 may signal temporary relief. Traders should monitor US employment data and trade policy updates for fresh directional cues.

GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2900 zone. USD/CAD declined and now consolidates below the 1.4350 level.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound is eyeing more gains above the 1.2970 resistance.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2935 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CAD started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the 1.4415 resistance.
• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.4310 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above the 1.2870 level. The British Pound started a steady increase above the 1.2900 resistance zone against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

The pair surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2972 swing high to the 1.2879 low. The pair is now consolidating near the 1.2925 zone and the 1.2420 level and the 50-hour simple moving average.

If there is another decline, the pair could find support near the 1.2900 level. The first major support sits near the 1.2880 zone. The next major support is 1.2870.

If there is a break below 1.2870, the pair could extend the decline. The next key support is near the 1.2820 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2800 support.

Conversely, the bulls might aim for more gains. The RSI moved above the 50 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now approaching a major hurdle at 1.2935 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2972 swing high to the 1.2879 low.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.2935. An upside break above the 1.2935 zone could send the pair toward 1.2970. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.2995.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CAD at FXOpen, the pair climbed toward the 1.4420 resistance zone before the bears appeared. The US Dollar formed a swing high near 1.4415 and recently declined below the 1.4350 support against the Canadian Dollar.

There was also a close below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.4310. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.4310.

The bulls are now active near the 1.4300 level. The pair is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4415 swing high to the 1.4288 low. If there is a fresh increase, the pair could face resistance near the 1.4330 level.

The next key resistance on the USD/CAD chart is near the 1.4350 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4415 swing high to the 1.4288 low.

If there is an upside break above 1.4350, the pair could rise toward the 1.4400 resistance. The next major resistance is near the 1.4415 zone, above which it could rise steadily toward the 1.4450 resistance zone.

Immediate support is near the 1.4290 level. The first major support is near 1.4260. A close below the 1.4260 level might trigger a strong decline. In the stated case, USD/CAD might test 1.4240. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a drop toward the 1.4400 support.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.