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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4264; (P) 1.4339; (R1) 1.4380; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the downside with breach of 1.4234 support. Deeper fall would be seen to 1.4150 low. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.4791 is still extending. Firm break of 1.4150 will confirm the start of the third leg towards 1.3946 cluster support. On the upside, break of 1.4414 will argue that the pattern is still in the second leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.4541 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6258; (P) 0.6299; (R1) 0.6341; More...

AUD/USD spiked higher to 0.6339 but quickly reversed. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 0.6218 will target 0.6186 support first. Firm break there will indicate that corrective pattern from 0.6087 has completed and larger fall from 0.6941 is ready to resume. However, break of 0.6339 will bring stronger rise back to 0.6390/6407 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6461) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0785; (P) 1.0855; (R1) 1.0929; More...

EUR/USD's break of 1.0857 resistance suggests that correction from 1.0953 has already completed at 1.0731. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Decisive break of 1.0953 will confirm resumption of whole rally from 1.0176. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0358 to 1.0953 from 1.0731 at 1.1099. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0731 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0692) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2932; (P) 1.2979; (R1) 1.3056; More...

GBP/USD's rally from 1.2099 resumed by breaking through 1.3013 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2248 to 1.3013 from 1.2878 at 1.3351. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.2878 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8805; (P) 0.8827; (R1) 0.8841; More…

USD/CHF's breach of 0.8757 suggests that fall from 0.9196 is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Next target is 61.8% projection of 0.9196 to 0.8757 from 0.8854 at 0.8583. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8854 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.80; (P) 149.64; (R1) 150.19; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the downside with break of 148.69 and retest of 146.52 low should be seen next. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 158.86. Next target is 61.8% projection of 158.86 to 146.52 from 151.20 at 143.57. On the upside, above 148.69 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 151.20 resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Reactions in the US markets to the long-anticipated reciprocal tariff announcement were decisively negative. NASDAQ futures tumbled more than -3%, while DOW futures shed as much as -2% at one point. US 10-year yields plunged below the 4.1% mark, highlighting a strong wave of safe haven flows. The reactions confirm what traders feared most—not just new tariffs, but the sheer complexity and breadth of the measures rolled out by the White House.

However, the global market reaction was more uneven. Japan’s Nikkei plummeted by over -1,000 points, nearly -3%, reflecting its vulnerability given the 24% tariff rate applied to its goods. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s HSI fared relatively better, falling by just -1.5%, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index even managed to claw back most of its early mild losses.

In currency markets, Aussie and Kiwi led the declines, driven by broad risk aversion and China’s exposure to some of the harshest tariff levels. Dollar also came under pressure, as investors pulled out of US assets. Yen emerged as the day’s biggest gainer on classic safe-haven flows, followed by Swiss Franc. Euro, Pound, and Canadian Dollar showed some resilience, as the EU, UK, and Canada either received relatively milder rates or were temporarily spared.

The White House confirmed a baseline 10% tariff on all countries starting April 5, with "reciprocal" rates up to 50% going into effect on April 9. Contrary to earlier hopes that the 10–20% range would serve as a maximum cap, these figures now appear to be just the starting point.

The US claims the new tariffs reflect roughly half of the effective trade barriers faced by American exports, accounting for both monetary and non-monetary impediments. But in practice, this means a steep increase in trade costs.

Many allies, including the EU (20%) and Japan (24%), were not spared, although Canada and Mexico were temporarily exempt. What’s more concerning is that these new tariffs are being layered on top of existing duties. The effective rate for China has ballooned to a staggering 54%, factoring in both new and existing duties.

The list of exemptions is narrow, covering only certain critical imports such as copper, pharmaceuticals, energy products, semiconductors, and minerals not available domestically.

Gold, as expected, surged to a fresh record amid the turmoil, but signs of momentum exhaustion are emerging. While further rally is expected, Gold might find strong resistance at 100% projection of 2584.24 to 2956.09 from 2832.41 at 3204.26 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Break of 3100.74 support will indicate short term topping and bring consolidations.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -2.95%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.77%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.52%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.17%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.099 at 1.38. Overnight, DOW rose 0.56%. S&P 500 rose 0.67%. NASDAQ rose 0.87%. 10-year yield rose 0.040 to 4.196.

Japan’s PMI composite finalized at 48.9, back in contraction

Japan’s services sector lost momentum in March, with the final PMI Services reading falling to the neutral mark of 50.0, down sharply from 53.7 in February. Composite PMI dropped to 48.9—its lowest since November 2022—signaling contraction in overall private sector activity.

S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes noted that while new orders and export business in services remained in growth territory, market conditions had clearly softened.

Additionally, input costs across the private sector rose at the fastest pace in seven months, and output price inflation remained historically elevated.

Business sentiment also deteriorated, with overall optimism about the year-ahead outlook for output falling to its lowest since January 2021.

China’s Caixin PMI services rises to 51.9, but deflation and jobs remain concerns

China’s Caixin Services PMI ticked up to 51.9 in March from 51.4, while Composite PMI rose to 51.8 from 51.5, marking the 17th consecutive month of expansion.

According to Caixin Insight Group’s Wang Zhe, both supply and demand showed improvement, particularly in manufacturing. However, service sector employment dragged overall job growth, and price pressures remained weak.

Despite signs of recovery and a stable start to the year, persistent deflationary pressures and a sluggish job market continue to weigh on sentiment. Wang noted that weak domestic demand and cautious market expectations were limiting momentum.

Looking ahead

ECB meeting accounts is a main feature in European session. Eurozone will release PPI and PMI services final. UK will also release PMI services final while Switzerland will publish CPI.

Later in the day, US ISM services will be the focus, as trade balance and jobless claims will be released. Canada trade balance will also be featured.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.80; (P) 149.64; (R1) 150.19; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the downside with break of 148.69 and retest of 146.52 low should be seen next. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 158.86. Next target is 61.8% projection of 158.86 to 146.52 from 151.20 at 143.57. On the upside, above 148.69 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited below 151.20 resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

China’s Caixin Services PMI ticked up to 51.9 in March from 51.4, while Composite PMI rose to 51.8 from 51.5, marking the 17th consecutive month of expansion.

According to Caixin Insight Group’s Wang Zhe, both supply and demand showed improvement, particularly in manufacturing. However, service sector employment dragged overall job growth, and price pressures remained weak.

Despite signs of recovery and a stable start to the year, persistent deflationary pressures and a sluggish job market continue to weigh on sentiment. Wang noted that weak domestic demand and cautious market expectations were limiting momentum.

Full China Caixin PMI services release here.

Japan’s services sector lost momentum in March, with the final PMI Services reading falling to the neutral mark of 50.0, down sharply from 53.7 in February. Composite PMI dropped to 48.9—its lowest since November 2022—signaling contraction in overall private sector activity.

S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes noted that while new orders and export business in services remained in growth territory, market conditions had clearly softened.

Additionally, input costs across the private sector rose at the fastest pace in seven months, and output price inflation remained historically elevated.

Business sentiment also deteriorated, with overall optimism about the year-ahead outlook for output falling to its lowest since January 2021.

Full Japan PMI services final release here.

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a consolidation phase below the 1.3000 resistance.
• A key declining channel or a bullish flag is forming with resistance at 1.2955 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD is eyeing a fresh increase above the 1.0870 resistance zone.
• Gold prices corrected some gains after setting a record high near $3,150.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound failed to continue higher above the 1.3000 resistance against the US Dollar. GBP/USD corrected some gains and tested the 1.2880 support.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) but remained above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2557 swing low to the 1.3014 high.

The pair is now attempting a fresh increase above 1.2900. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.2960 level. There is also a key declining channel or a bullish flag forming with resistance at 1.2955 on the same chart.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2980 level. The main resistance is now forming near the 1.3000 zone. A close above the 1.3000 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 1.3050 resistance.

On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.2880 level. The next key support sits near the 1.2860 level. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.2820 level.

Looking at Gold, the bulls remained in action and pushed the price to a new record high before there was a downside correction.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• Euro Zone Services PMI for March 2025 – Forecast 50.4, versus 50.4 previous.
• UK Services PMI for March 2025 – Forecast 53.2, versus 53.2 previous.
• US Services PMI for March 2025 – Forecast 54.3, versus 54.3 previous.
• US ISM Services PMI for March 2025 – Forecast 53.0, versus 53.5 previous.