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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0770; (P) 1.0800; (R1) 1.0822; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.0857 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.0963 has completed already. Retest of 1.0953 should be seen first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.0176 towards 1.1274 key resistance. However, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0953 at 1.0726 will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0656).

In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0692) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2888; (P) 1.2915; (R1) 1.2950; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3013 continues. On the downside, below 1.2869 will bring deeper correction. But downside should be contained above 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099 towards 1.3433 high.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8819; (P) 0.8835; (R1) 0.8854; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 0.8757 is still in progress. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8911 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 0.8757 will resume the fall from 0.9200 to 61.8% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8690. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 0.8374 support.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption.

WTI oil price is trading under new five-week high ($72.08, posted on Tuesday) after the price rallied 2.8% on Monday (the biggest daily gain since Jan 15).

Slight easing so far looks more like a consolidation rather than stronger profit-taking as markets turned to quiet mode and await the verdict about tariffs from US President Trump (due later today).

Positive factors that boost oil demand were threats from the US on imposing the secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, better than expected China’s recent economic data which boost hopes for stronger demand from the world’s number one oil importer and growing tensions between the US and Iran.

OPEC+ will meet on Thursday and expect to stick to plans for further output increase from May that would partially counter the impact of supportive factors.

All eyes are now on President Trump’s tariff announcement, which is likely to be the key driver.

Market are expected to be volatile, and reaction will directly depend on size and scope of new tariffs.

Aggressive tariff rhetoric would further fuel fears of economic slowdown and inflation rise, which would have a negative impact short-term outlook and deflate oil price.

Conversely, softer than expected Trump’s stance on tariffs would keep larger bulls in play and provide fresh support to oil price.

Technical studies are mixed on daily chart, as positive momentum remains strong and north-heading daily Tenkan-sen is diverging from daily Kijun-sen after forming a bull-cross, while the price action remains weighed by falling and thickening daily Ichimoku cloud (base lays at $71.58).

Good supports lay at $70.69/62 (100DMA / broken Fibo 38.2%) followed by $70 zone (psychological, reinforced by rising daily Tenkan-sen).

Daily cloud base marks initial barrier, followed by $72.08 (new high) and $72.28/50 (50% retracement of $79.35/$65.22 / 200DMA).

Res: 72.08; 72.28; 72.50; 73.12.
Sup: 70.62; 70.42; 70.00; 69.70.

The Australian dollar has posted strong gains for a second straight day. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6306, up 0.47% on the day.

RBA holds rates but hints at further cuts if trade tensions worsen

The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.10% on Tuesday, in a move that was widely expected by markets. Still, the Australian dollar reacted positively, gaining 0.48% on Tuesday.

The RBA statement noted that underlying inflation continued to ease in line with the Bank's forecast, but the Board "needs to be confident that this progress will continue" so that inflation remains sustainable at the midpoint of the 2%-3% target band.

The statement said there was "significant" uncertainty over global trade developments, pointing to the threat of further US tariffs and possible counter-tariffs from targeted countries.

The central bank's decision was made in the midst of a hotly contested election campaign, and a rate cut would likely have been attacked by the opposition parties as political interference.

In a press conference after the meeting, Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the uncertainty over the global outlook due to US trade policy but sought to assure the markets by saying that Australia was "well placed" to weather the potential storm of a global trade war.

Markets bracing for Trump tariffs

US President Trump has not specifically targeted Australia with any tariffs but China is Australia's number one trading partner and a US-China trade war would inflict damage on Australia's economy.

The new US tariffs are expected to be announced later today and take effect on Thursday. The financial markets remain volatile as investors look for some clarity from Washington about the tariffs, as it remains unclear which countries will be targeted and the extent of the tariff rates.

AUD/USD Technical

• AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6297. Above, there is resistance at 0.6315
• 0.6264 and 0.6246 are the next support levels

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.01; (P) 149.58; (R1) 150.19; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Corrective rise from 146.52 could have completed at 151.20 already. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 151.29 resistance holds. Below 148.69 will bring retest of 146.52 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 158.86 towards 139.57 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Risk-off sentiment has returned to European markets and US futures as traders await the long-anticipated announcement of the United States’ reciprocal tariffs, scheduled for 2000 GMT. After months of speculation and political posturing, today is expected to bring the concrete details of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs plan. Markets are hoping for clarity on which countries and sectors will be affected, the magnitude of the levies, when they will take effect, and whether any exemptions will be granted.

While the announcement itself may provide clarity to a certain extent, hopefully, it’s far from the end of the story. A big unknown remains how major trading partners, especially the European Union, will respond. Retaliatory measures are expected, but the scale, scope, and timing remain uncertain. And beyond that, markets are already looking to Washington’s next move—will the US escalate further if other nations push back?

On the more hopeful side, many still believe that this will eventually culminate at the negotiating table, where barriers are eased rather than raised. Historically, tariff wars have led to tough talks and eventual compromises. However, any such diplomatic resolution would likely be a long process and do little to ease near-term volatility or economic strain.

Pessimists, on the other hand, are concerned that the true aim of the US isn’t merely reciprocity, but reshoring manufacturing and breaking long-standing trade norms. These goals require very different approaches and outcomes. The former could lead to quick concessions, the latter a prolonged and potentially damaging realignment of global supply chains.

There is a chance of a short-term relief rally in stocks if today's announcement is less severe than feared. However, any bounce could be short-lived. For S&P 500, downside risks remain dominant as long as 5786.95 resistance holds. The larger corrective fall from 6147.47 would still be in play. Next target would be 38.2% retracement of 3491.58 to 6147.47 at 5132.89 after the recovery, if any, completes.

In currency markets, Kiwi and Aussie are leading today followed by Sterling. while Loonie lags behind at the bottomed, followed by Dollar, and Swiss Franc. Euro and Yen are positioning in the middle.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.87%. DAX is down -1.63%. CAC is down -0.91%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.043 at 4.609. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.036 at 2.661. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.28%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.02%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.05%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.37%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.025 to 1.479.

US ADP jobs grow 155k, pay growth cools further

US ADP private sector employment rose by 155k in March, exceeding expectations of 120k. There were 24k positions added in goods-producing sectors and 132k in services.

Employers of all sizes contributed to the growth, with small firms leading the way, adding 52k jobs, followed by large and medium-sized businesses with 59k and 43k respectively.

Despite the strong employment numbers, wage growth continued to decelerate. Year-over-year pay gains slowed to 4.6% for job-stayers and 6.5% for job-changers. The premium for switching jobs fell to 1.9 percentage points—the lowest in the series since September.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson commented that despite "policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers," the headline job number was a positive indicator for the economy and businesses of all sizes.

ECB's Lagarde: Tariffs harmful globally, often lead back to negotiation table

ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the global effects of US-led tariffs will be “negative,” though the extent of the damage depends heavily on the scope, duration, and targeted products.

In an interview with Ireland’s Newstalk radio, she emphasized that the broader implications for global trade and growth would vary, but the potential for lasting disruption is real.

Lagarde also noted that history shows such trade escalations often end in talks rather than prolonged battles.

“Quite often those escalation of tariffs, because they prove harmful, even for those who inflict it, lead to negotiation tables,” she said, suggesting that any initial damage might eventually give way to diplomatic resolutions and the removal of trade barriers.

ECB's Schnabel: Trade fragmentation risks rekindling inflation, hitting growth

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned today that a global trade war could cause a sharp resurgence in inflation and weigh heavily on growth.

In a speech, she highlighted that a severe disruption in global trade flows could lift inflation by several percentage points in the early years.

She added that even a "mild decoupling" scenario would still have a meaningful impact—adding up to 1% to inflation and taking years to unwind.

BoJ's Ueda: US tariffs pose short-term inflation risk, long-term growth uncertainty

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said today that the ramifications of US tariff policy remain "highly uncertain" and could significantly affect global trade.

Speaking to Japan’s parliament, Ueda emphasized that the ultimate impact would depend on the "range and scale" of the tariffs being implemented. He also noted that beyond trade flows, a key concern lies in "how the tariffs could affect the sentiment and spending of households and companies."

Ueda further highlighted that while US inflation may rise in the short term due to higher import costs, the longer-term effect is less predictable. He suggested that elevated tariffs could eventually weigh on US economic growth, which in turn might dampen inflationary pressures over time.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.01; (P) 149.58; (R1) 150.19; More...

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Corrective rise from 146.52 could have completed at 151.20 already. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 151.29 resistance holds. Below 148.69 will bring retest of 146.52 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 158.86 towards 139.57 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

US ADP private sector employment rose by 155k in March, exceeding expectations of 120k. There were 24k positions added in goods-producing sectors and 132k in services.

Employers of all sizes contributed to the growth, with small firms leading the way, adding 52k jobs, followed by large and medium-sized businesses with 59k and 43k respectively.

Despite the strong employment numbers, wage growth continued to decelerate. Year-over-year pay gains slowed to 4.6% for job-stayers and 6.5% for job-changers. The premium for switching jobs fell to 1.9 percentage points—the lowest in the series since September.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson commented that despite "policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers," the headline job number was a positive indicator for the economy and businesses of all sizes.

Full US ADP release here.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned today that a global trade war could cause a sharp resurgence in inflation and weigh heavily on growth.

In a speech, she highlighted that a severe disruption in global trade flows could lift inflation by several percentage points in the early years.

She added that even a "mild decoupling" scenario would still have a meaningful impact—adding up to 1% to inflation and taking years to unwind.

ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the global effects of US-led tariffs will be “negative,” though the extent of the damage depends heavily on the scope, duration, and targeted products.

In an interview with Ireland’s Newstalk radio, she emphasized that the broader implications for global trade and growth would vary, but the potential for lasting disruption is real.

Lagarde also noted that history shows such trade escalations often end in talks rather than prolonged battles.

“Quite often those escalation of tariffs, because they prove harmful, even for those who inflict it, lead to negotiation tables,” she said, suggesting that any initial damage might eventually give way to diplomatic resolutions and the removal of trade barriers.