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AUD/USD Outlook: Aussie Extends Recovery On Fresh US/China Talks Optimism
The Australian dollar extends recovery from last week’s low at 0.7070, advancing for the second straight day, boosted by fresh optimism over US/China trade talks.
US President Trump said he will delay increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, following substantial progress in talks.
Trump also mentioned plans for the summit with Chinese President Xi to conclude agreement that further lowered fears about trade war.
Risk-sensitive Aussie reacted on optimistic news from last Friday and rallied from strong support at 0.7070, hit after significant fall on Thursday.
Recovery probes again through a cluster of MA barriers and pressures the upper boundary at 0.7160 (100SMA), break of which would open way for retest of last Thursday’s strong upside rejection / Fibo 61.8% of 0.7295/0.7054 at 0.7203.
Bullish techs on lower timeframes and improved picture on daily chart underpin recovery, as top of thick hourly chart (0.7138) holds Monday’s action.
Retest of 0.7161 and potential break higher would signal extension of recovery from 0.7054 base towards 200SMA (0.7264).
Rising 10SMA (0.7125) offers solid support and needs to hold to keep fresh bulls in play.
Res: 0.7161, 0.7203, 0.7238, 0.7264
Sup: 0.7148, 0.7125, 0.7082, 0.7070
Crude Oil Bullish Bias Above 57.00
Pivot (invalidation): 57.00
Our preference Long positions above 57.00 with targets at 57.50 & 57.75 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 57.00 look for further downside with 56.65 & 56.40 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
Silver Spot Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 15.8800
Our preference Long positions above 15.8800 with targets at 16.0400 & 16.1000 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 15.8800 look for further downside with 15.8200 & 15.7600 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
Gold Spot Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 1327.00
Our preference Long positions above 1327.00 with targets at 1336.00 & 1340.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1327.00 look for further downside with 1324.00 & 1321.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI advocates for further upside.
S&P 500 Bullish Bias Above 2777.00
Pivot (invalidation): 2777.00
Our preference Long positions above 2777.00 with targets at 2795.00 & 2810.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 2777.00 look for further downside with 2763.00 & 2750.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.
DAX The Bias Remains Bullish
Pivot (invalidation): 11390.00
Our preference Long positions above 11390.00 with targets at 11505.00 & 11560.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 11390.00 look for further downside with 11310.00 & 11238.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.
USD/TRY Key Resistance At 5.3300
Pivot (invalidation): 5.3300
Our preference Short positions below 5.3300 with targets at 5.3030 & 5.2890 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 5.3300 look for further upside with 5.3410 & 5.3520 as targets.
Comment As Long as the resistance at 5.3300 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 5.3030 remains high.
AUD/USD Supported By A Rising Trend Line
Pivot (invalidation): 0.7120
Our preference Long positions above 0.7120 with targets at 0.7160 & 0.7180 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7120 look for further downside with 0.7095 & 0.7070 as targets.
Comment Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.
USD/CAD Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 1.3170
Our preference Short positions below 1.3170 with targets at 1.3120 & 1.3085 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1.3170 look for further upside with 1.3200 & 1.3225 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.
USD/CHF Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 1.0005
Our preference Short positions below 1.0005 with targets at 0.9980 & 0.9960 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1.0005 look for further upside with 1.0020 & 1.0035 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.
