Sample Category Title

General Trend:

• HSBC declines after FY profits missed estimates (Reports FY18 Adj pretax $21.7B v $20.99B y/y, Adj Rev $53.9B v $51.5B y/y)
• BHP reported H1 underlying profit $3.7B ($4.03B from continuing ops) v $4.4Be
• Japanese securities brokers gain, Iron/Steel companies decline
• Financials rise in Australia
• Australian vitamin company Blackmores declines over 30%, made cautious comments about China
• Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Feb minutes in line with most recent quarterly statement on monetary policy
• Walmart expected to report results on Tuesday

Headlines/Economic Data

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened -0.1%
• (JP) Japan Economy Min Motegi: Reiterates seeing some risks in outlook due to China slowdown, Capex overall on expansion trend; Abe has confirmed with Trump auto tariffs will not be applied while talks continue
• (JP) UK said not able to resign trade agreement with Japan by March - financial press
• (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda: Reiterates stance that BOJ does not have currency manipulation as a target; may consider easing if yet moves impact economy, prices; BOJ doesn't link policy to FX moves; ETF purchases have impacted markets but currently no intention to stop ETF purchases
• 7267.JP Spokesman: Not source of report related to factory closure in the UK (responds to press report)
• (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥1.0T v ¥1.0T indicated in 0.50% (prior 0.50%) 20-yr bonds; avg yield 0.419% v 0.467% prior; bid to cover 4.67x v 4.57x prior

Korea

• Kospi opens -0.1%
• (KR) South Korea Jan Exports Prices y/y: -1.4% v -0.6% prior; Imports Prices y/y: +2.5% v +3.2% prior
• (KR) South Korean airlines to increase fuel surcharge on international flights by 55% to KRW34.8K in March - Korean Press
• (KR) According to Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA): South Korea steel exports to US fell more than rivals in China and Japan that were subjected to higher tariffs – Yonhap
• (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Lee calls for improvement to make manufacturing more competitive; Manufacturing sector is crucial for growth of national economy
• (KR) South Korea to allow import of medical cannabis, effective March – Yonhap
• 086790.KR Partners with SK Telekom and Kiwoom Securities for internet only bank (3rd in the country) - Korean press

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opens +0.3%; Shanghai Composite opens +0.2%
• (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips reverse repo operations for 7th consecutive session; Maintains neutral position in OMO
• (HK) Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) in talks with China PBoC on cross boarder wealth management
• (CN) China PBoC sets Yuan Reference Rate: 6.7642 v 6.7659 prior
• (CN) China PBoC Monetary Policy Dept Chief Sun Guofeng: To start first central bank bill swap soon, to publish tax policies for perpetual bond soon
• (CN) China Vice Premier Liu He to visit the US for trade talks Feb 21-22 (Thursday-Friday)
• (HK) Hong Kong Chief Exec Lam: Will respond to land supply report later in Feb
• (CN) China foreign investment banks expected to attract large foreign capital in 2019, as it gives wider and easier foreign access to its capital market - Xinhua

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened -0.1%
• COL.AU Reports H1 (A$) EBIT (Retail Basis) 733.0M v 778M y/y; Rev 20.9B v 20.3B y/y
• COH.AU Reports H1 (A$) net 128.6M v 110.8M y/y, EBIT 177.0M v 160.4M y/y, Rev 711.9M v 639.6M y/y
• BHP.AU Reports H1 underlying Net $3.7B v $4.1B y/y, Underlying EBITDA $10.5B v $10.8B y/y, Rev $21.6B v$21.8B y/y
• (AU) Chinese coal traders halting purchases of Australian coal due to customs delays reaching up to 45 days from usual 5-20 days -Financial Press
• (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) FEB 5TH MEETING MINUTES: BOARD SAW "SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES" ON THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECAST

North America

• GOOG Allegations being made that pedophiles are using YouTube to trade child pornography, error in code is facilitating them to do so through a "wormhole", most can be found in 5 clicks and it is being monetized - press
• RIG Reports Q4 -$0.34 v -$0.24e, Rev $770M v $735Me; current customer conversations suggest that FIDs in 2019 could increase materially over last year
• (US) Group of states including California has filed suit against Trump Administration over emergency declaration to fund border wall (as expected)

Europe

• (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium, chief Economist): ECB could adapt rate guidance if economy slows sharply - press
• (EU) EU's Juncker: Trump gave me his word that there won't be any tariffs on European cars for time being; If Trump breaks his promise on car tariffs, the EU won't stick to its promise to buy more soy, LNG
• (UK) EU Brexit Negotiator Barnier to meet UK Brexit Sec Barclay in Brussels: Barclay said UK can reach its goals on Brexit backstop without reopening withdrawal agreement

Levels as of 12:50ET

• Hang Seng -0.2%; Shanghai Composite -0.3%; Kospi -0.1%; Nikkei225 +0.2%; ASX 200 +0.3%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.1%, Dax -0.1%; FTSE100 +0.0%
• EUR 1.1290-1.1317; JPY 110.45-110.69; AUD 0.7108-0.7143; NZD 0.6827-0.6863
• Commodity Futures: Gold +0.4% at $1,327/oz; Crude Oil +0.4% at $56.22/brl; Copper -0.2% at $2.83/lb

Market movers today

It is another quiet day on the economic release front, so financial markets will be looking to politics for action. One hot spot is certainly the Brexit negotiations, especially after seven labour members quit the party yesterday in protest against the party's policies.

Trade discussions between China and the US continue to drive financial markets, with President Trump apparently considering a 60-day extension to allow completion of the talks without triggering a hike in tariffs at next week's deadline.

In Sweden, the January CPIF print is due out and Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves is due to speak at 12:30 CET on the economic situation.

Selected market news

Equity markets traded without direction and ended largely flat as US markets were closed yesterday due to President's Day. The dollar index ended the day also largely unchanged, Treasury yields rose slightly and oil was up a notch.

Trade is or rather continues to be the talk of the town. A new round of US China trade talks commences in Washington today. The negotiations will be followed by high level talks later in the week. Markets have been upbeat concerning the negotiations due to signalling from Beijing and Washington rather than concrete measures. Both sides clearly want to strike a deal and difficulties revolve around establishing a monitoring mechanism to resolve concerns over copyright and other non-tariff issues.

The European Commission threatened retaliation should the US impose tariffs on automobile imports. The White House received a Commerce Department report on the national security implications of auto imports. The potential tariff threat comes after the European auto industry has just begun to recover from being hammered by new European emissions standards.

ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet struck a cautious tone on the economic outlook. Yesterday afternoon, he gave a first indication of what is likely to be expected this week as a number of important ECB speeches take place as well as the ECB minutes on Thursday.

He kept all options on the table - including the TLTRO - should there be a monetary policy case. Should the ECB decide to announce a new liquidity operation contrary to our base line, March seems too early based on Praet's comments. Praet was also focused on the forward guidance, especially in the context of further asset purchases not being needed if they are clear on the forward guidance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.56; (P) 142.80; (R1) 143.18; More...

GBP/JPY is still staying in range of 140.62/144.84 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Rebound from 131.51 could still extend higher. But we'd expect strong resistance from trend line (now at 146.64) to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, firm break of 140.62 will suggest completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline is turn argues that it's the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.38 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.77; (P) 125.03; (R1) 125.36; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. For now, we're favoring the case that rebound from 118.62 has completed at 125.95 already, just ahead of 55 day EMA. On the downside, break of 123.78 will add more credence to this case and target a test on 118.62 low. On the upside, however, decisive break of 125.95 will dampen our bearish view and target 129.25 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already, with corrective structure. Fall from 137.49 is likely still in progress. Decisive break of 118.62 will target 161.8% projection of 137.49 to 124.61 from 133.12 at 112.28, which is inside 109.03/114.84 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8738; (P) 0.8754; (R1) 0.8765; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. With 0.8728 support intact, further rally is in favor. On the upside, break of 0.8840 will extend the rebound from 0.8617 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9101 to 0.8617 at 0.8916. Break will pave the way back to 0.9101 key resistance. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.8728 will argue that rebound from 0.8617 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this low.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). The medium term range is set between 0.8620 and 0.9101. Downside breakout of 0.8620 will pave the way back to 0.8312 support . Break of 0.9101 will bring retest of 0.9304/5 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5816; (P) 1.5848; (R1) 1.5895; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. With 1.5721 support intact, further rise is still in favor. On the upside, break of 1.6060 resistance should confirm that decline from 1.6765 has completed. Further rally should then be seen to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.5721 will extend the decline to 1.5346 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1345; (P) 1.1356; (R1) 1.1371; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation in range of 1.1310/1444. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rally is mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1444 will resume whole rally from 1.1181 for 1.1501 key resistance next. However, break of 1.1310 will argue that the rebound from 1.1181 might be completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1289; (P) 1.1312; (R1) 1.1334; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for more consolidations. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1341 minor resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 1.1215 low will resume the larger down trend from 1.2555 to 1.1186 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1341 will suggests that consolidation from 1.1215 is extending with another rising leg back towards 1.1514 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2897; (P) 1.2857; (R1) 1.2949; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and consolidation from 1.2773 temporary low is in progress. Further decline is in favor with 1.2958 intact. On the downside, break of 1.2773 will resume the fall from 1.3217 to retest 1.2391 low. On the upside, however, break of 1.2958 resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.3217 instead.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 1.3174 key resistance revived the original view on GBP/USD. That is, decline from 1.4376 is possibly resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Firm break of 1.2391 will solidify this bearish case and target 1.1946 (2016 low). However, decisive break of 1.3174 will invalidate this bearish case again and turn outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0030; (P) 1.0044; (R1) 1.0065; More....

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation below 1.0098 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral first. Another rise expected with 0.9988 support intact. On the upside, above 1.0098 will target 1.0128 first. Break will confirm resumption of up trend from 0.9186. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.9541 to 1.0128 from 0.9716 at 1.0303. However, break of 0.9988 will indicate rejection by 1.0128 and turn intraday bias to the downside for 0.9716 support again.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9716 will dampen this bullish view and at least bring deeper fall to 0.9541 key support.