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UK’s Retail Sales Advanced Higher-Than-Anticipated In January

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.70% against the USD and closed at 1.2887 on Friday.

On the data front, UK's retail sales climbed 4.2% on an annual basis in January, buoyed by robust growth in clothing and footwear sales and registering its biggest increase since December 2016. Market participants had envisaged for a rise of 3.4%. In the prior month, retail sales had registered a revised gain of 3.1%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2915, with the GBP trading 0.22% higher against the USD from Friday's close.

Overnight data indicated that Britain's Rightmove house price index rose 0.2% on an annual basis in February, following an advance of 0.4% in the preceding month.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2827, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2738. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2962, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3008.

Amid lack of macroeconomic releases in UK today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3221; (P) 1.3267; (R1) 1.3294; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for some consolidations. Further rise is still mildly in favor with 1.3196 minor support intact. We're favoring the case that decline from 1.3664 has completed with three waves down to 1.3068 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, just ahead of medium term channel support. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3375 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 1.3664 high. However, break of 1.3196 will now dampen our view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3068 support instead.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3095) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

Japan’s Machinery Orders Dropped To A 10-Year Low Level In December

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the JPY and closed at 110.44 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 110.50, with the USD trading 0.05% higher against the JPY from Friday's close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan's machinery orders declined to its lowest level in 10-years by 0.1% on a monthly basis in December, weighed down by global trade conflicts and following a steady reading in the preceding month.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.29, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.08. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.68, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.86.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Swiss Franc Reverses Its Losses In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD marginally rose against the CHF and closed at 1.0050 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0034, with the USD trading 0.16% lower against the CHF from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0012, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9990. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0073, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0112.

Trading trend in the Swiss Franc today is expected to be determined by Switzerland’s total sight deposits, scheduled to release in a while.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7096; (P) 0.7122; (R1) 0.7166; More...

AUD/USD's corrective recovery from 0.7054 is still in progress and further rise might be seen. But upside should be limited below 0.7295 resistance to bring another decline. We're favoring the case that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. On the downside break of 0.7054 support will affirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we'd treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Canada’s Existing Home Sales Surprisingly Climbed In January

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.34% against the CAD and closed at 1.3250 on Friday.

Data showed that Canada's existing home sales unexpectedly rebounded 3.6% on a monthly basis in January, defying market anticipations for a drop of 0.6%. In the previous month, existing home sales had recorded a fall of 2.5%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3230, with the USD trading 0.15% lower against the CAD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3199, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3168. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3287, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3344.

In absence of key economic releases in Canada today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Aussie Extends Its Gains In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.49% against the USD and closed at 0.7139 on Friday.

LME Copper prices rose 0.2% or $11.5/MT to $6190.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.03% or $0.5/MT to $1828.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7153, with the AUD trading 0.20% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7104, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7054. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7181, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7208.

Looking ahead, investors would keep an eye on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting minutes, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Gold: Yellow Metal Trading Higher In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.73% against the USD and closed at USD1324.80 per ounce on Friday, amid broad weakness in the US dollar.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1327.90, with gold trading 0.23% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1318.97, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1310.03. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1332.67, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1337.43.

The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1248; (P) 1.1277; (R1) 1.1321; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.1234 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1341 resistance holds. Decisive break of 1.1215 low will resume the larger down trend from 1.2555 to 1.1186 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1341 will suggests that consolidation from 1.1215 is extending with another rising leg back towards 1.1514 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Silver: White Metal Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 1.09% against the USD and closed at USD15.76 per ounce on Friday, tracking gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 15.80, with silver trading 0.25% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 15.61, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.43. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.89, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.99.

The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.