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USD/JPY rose to 111.13 last week and breached 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77. But the pair couldn't sustain above 110.77 and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 110.00 resistance turned support will suggest rejection by 110.77 and the rebound from 104.69 has likely completed. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 108.49 support for confirmation. Nevertheless, break of 111.13 should confirm resumption of rise from 104.69 for 114.54 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was stronger than expected, it couldn't sustain above 55 day EMA yet. Outlook is turned mixed first. On the downside, break of 108.49 support will revive that case that such rebound was a correction. And, larger down trend is still in progress for another low below 104.62. But sustained trading above 55 day EMA will turn focus to 114.54. Decisive break there will confirmation completion of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high).

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD dropped further to 1.2773 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. With 1.2958 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected. Break of 1.2773 will resume the fall from 1.3217 to retest 1.2391 low. On the upside, however, break of 1.2958 resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.3217 instead.

In the bigger picture, the rejection by 1.3174 key resistance revived the original view on GBP/USD. That is, decline from 1.4376 is possibly resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). Firm break of 1.2391 will solidify this bearish case and target 1.1946 (2016 low). However, decisive break of 1.3174 will invalidate this bearish case again and turn outlook bullish.

In the longer term picture, current development argues that corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low) is extending with another rise. But there is no change in the long term bearish outlook as long as 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 at 1.5466 holds. An eventual downside breakout through 1.1946 is still in favor in the long term.

USD/CHF's rise from 0.9716 extended to 1.0098 last week and formed a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.9988 support holds. On the upside, above 1.0098 will target 1.0128 first. Break will confirm resumption of up trend from 0.9186. Next target will be 100% projection of 0.9541 to 1.0128 from 0.9716 at 1.0303. However, break of 0.9988 will indicate rejection by 1.0128 and turn intraday bias to the downside for 0.9716 support again.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9716 will dampen this bullish view and at least bring deeper fall to 0.9541 key support.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we'll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

AUD/USD recovered further last week as correction from 0.7054 extends. Further rise might be seen initially this week. But upside should bel limited below 0.7295resistance to bring another decline. We're favoring the case that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. On the downside break of 0.7054 support will affirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.6941 next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we'd treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

In the longer term picture, prior rejection by 55 month EMA maintained long term bearishness in AUD/USD. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in progress. Sustained break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 low and then 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

USD/CAD edged higher to 1.3340 last week but failed to break through 1.3375 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and some more consolidation could be seen. For now, further rise is in favor as long as 1.3196 minor support holds. We're favoring the case that decline from 1.3664 has completed with three waves down to 1.3068 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, just ahead of medium term channel support. Decisive break of 1.3375 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 1.3664 high. However, break of 1.3196 will now dampen our view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3068 support instead.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3095) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). Firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal target 1.2061 low again.

In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. For now, there is still prospect of extending the long term up trend through 1.4689.

GBP/JPY gyrated lower again last week but so far, downside is contained above 140.62 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and outlook is unchanged. Rebound from 131.51 could still extend higher. But we'd expect strong resistance from trend line (now at 146.80) to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, firm break of 140.62 will suggest completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline is turn argues that it's the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.38 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 122.36 (2016 low) to 156.59 (2018 high) doesn't display a clear impulsive structure. Thus, we're treating price actions from 122.36 as a corrective pattern. In case of an extension, strong resistance is likely to be seen at 50% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.36 at 159.11 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 131.51 support will bring 122.26 low back into focus.

EUR/JPY stayed in range of 124.17/125.95 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial remains neutral this week first. At this point, we're favoring the case that rebound from 118.62 has completed at 125.95 already, just ahead of 55 day EMA. On the downside, break of 123.78 will add more credence to this case and target a test on 118.62 low. On the upside, however, decisive break of 125.95 will dampen our bearish view and target 129.25 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already, with corrective structure. Fall from 137.49 is likely still in progress. Decisive break of 118.62 will target 161.8% projection of 137.49 to 124.61 from 133.12 at 112.28, which is inside 109.03/114.84 support zone.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. It could extend through 109.03 to resume the decline from 149.76 But in that case, we'd expect strong support around 94.11 (2012 low) to bring reversal.

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8840 last week but quickly retreated. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. As long as 0.8728 support holds, further rise is still in favor. On the upside, break of 0.8840 will extend the rebound from 0.8617 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9101 to 0.8617 at 0.8916. Break will pave the way back to 0.9101 key resistance. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.8728 will argue that rebound from 0.8617 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this low.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). The medium term range is set between 0.8620 and 0.9101. Downside breakout of 0.8620 will pave the way back to 0.8312 support . Break of 0.9101 will bring retest of 0.9304/5 resistance.

In the long term picture, we're holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.

EUR/AUD gyrated lower last week but after all, it stayed in range of 1.5721/6060. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. At this point, we're favoring the case that decline from 1.6765 has completed at 1.5721 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Further rise is in favor as long as 1.5721 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6060 should confirm our view and target 1.6765 high next. On the downside, however, break of 1.5721 will extend the decline to 1.5346 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6587 from 1.3624 at 1.8069. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.

EUR/CHF recovered last week after hitting 1.1310 and drew support from near term trend line. Intraday bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.1444 will resume whole rally from 1.1181 for 1.1501 key resistance next. However, break of 1.1310 will argue that the rebound from 1.1181 might be completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1181 low again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone to complete it and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.1501 (38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1173 at 1.1490) will confirm completion of the correction, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1687 and above next.

In the long term picture, as long as key support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 holds, A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium to long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.