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Cable is consolidating above daily cloud top in early Friday’s trading following heavy losses in past two days.

UK parliament voted down PM May’s Brexit plan again on Thursday, increasing concerns over likely no-deal Brexit and adding pressure on sterling, which holds in a downtrend for the third straight week.

Brexit remains pound’s key driver, with divided forecasts from top market participants about the eventual outcome, increasing uncertainty and keeping sterling highly volatile.

Bears are taking a breather above thick daily cloud, top of which was cracked on Thursday but without clear break.

Close below 55SMA was negative signal as daily MA’s turned to full bearish setup, but momentum turned higher, deeply in negative territory and stochastic broke again into oversold zone.

This suggests bears may hold in extended consolidation, with stronger upticks expected on upbeat UK retail sales data, due today.

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% m/m in Jan vs -0.9% in Dec and y/y is forecasted at 3.4% in Jan vs 3.0% previous.

Better than expected release could boost pound for test of 1.2844 (lows of Wed/Mon), possibly to extend to 100SMA (1.2880) on stronger acceleration.

Bearish bias would remain intact while 100SMA caps and would keep focus at daily cloud top, violation of which would generate fresh bearish signal for test of 1.2710 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2397/1.3217).

Res: 1.2882, 1.2844, 1.2880, 1.2898
Sup: 1.2786, 1.2772, 1.2710, 1.2668

Pivot (invalidation): 110.60

Our preference Short positions below 110.60 with targets at 110.10 & 109.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 110.60 look for further upside with 110.80 & 110.95 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2830

Our preference Short positions below 1.2830 with targets at 1.2770 & 1.2740 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.2830 look for further upside with 1.2850 & 1.2875 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 1.2830 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.2770 remains high.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1270

Our preference Long positions above 1.1270 with targets at 1.1310 & 1.1325 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.1270 look for further downside with 1.1245 & 1.1230 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 5.2620

Our preference Long positions above 5.2620 with targets at 5.2960 & 5.3220 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 5.2620 look for further downside with 5.2420 & 5.2300 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.7110

Our preference Short positions below 0.7110 with targets at 0.7070 & 0.7050 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.7110 look for further upside with 0.7135 & 0.7150 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a drop.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3270

Our preference Long positions above 1.3270 with targets at 1.3340 & 1.3370 in extension.

Alternative scenario elow 1.3270 look for further downside with 1.3255 & 1.3230 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.0070

Our preference Short positions below 1.0070 with targets at 1.0035 & 1.0020 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.0070 look for further upside with 1.0095 & 1.0110 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a drop.

Pivot (invalidation): 2737.00

Our preference Long positions above 2737.00 with targets at 2762.00 & 2775.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 2737.00 look for further downside with 2723.00 & 2710.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Pivot (invalidation): 11190.00

Our preference Short positions below 11190.00 with targets at 11040.00 & 10970.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 11190.00 look for further upside with 11315.00 & 11373.00 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 11190.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 11040.00 remains high.