Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.08; (P) 124.39; (R1) 124.62; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside at this point. Rebound from 118.62 could have completed at 125.95 already, just ahead of 55 day EMA. Further break of 123.78 will add more credence to this case and target a test on 118.62 low. On the upside, break of 125.95 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of the rebound. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already, with corrective structure. Fall from 137.49 is likely still in progress. Decisive break of 118.62 will target 161.8% projection of 137.49 to 124.61 from 133.12 at 112.28, which is inside 109.03/114.84 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8734; (P) 0.8750; (R1) 0.8763; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. Further rise is expected as long as 0.8711 minor support holds. On the upside, sustained break 38.2% retracement of 0.9101 to 0.8617 of 0.8802 will target 61.8% retracement at 0.8916. However, break of 0.8711 will suggest that rebound from 0.8617 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.8617/20 support instead.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). The medium term range is set between 0.8620 and 0.9101. Downside breakout of 0.8620 will pave the way back to 0.8312 support . Break of 0.9101 will bring retest of 0.9304/5 resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5933; (P) 1.5996; (R1) 1.6035; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. At this point, we're favoring the case that decline from 1.6765 has completed at 1.5721 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Risk will stay on the upside s long as 1.5721 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.6060 should confirm this bullish view and target a test on 1.6765 high. On the downside, break of 1.5721 will extend the decline to 1.5346 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

The relief rally in equities appears to have run out of steam as risk aversion gained momentum on concerns trade talks are not progressing fast enough and global growth fails to show signs of stabilization, despite accommodative stances globally. The US dollar and Japanese yen could continue to see gains if the political risks yield no progress and the economic backdrop continues to diminish.

Next week the focus will remain on trade talks, Brexit, corporate earnings and if we will see another government shutdown. If US negotiators do not deliver a more optimistic tone on the trade front early in the week, we could see risk aversion accelerate. The Republicans and Democrats do not want to see another shutdown and talks appear to have been constructive this week. Even if both parties agree on a deal, uncertainty lies with the President, since it is unknown if he would accept funding of just north of $2 billion for his border wall funding, well shy of his heavily demanded $5.7 billion.

• US negotiators head to Beijing to resume trade talks & another government shutdown looms
• Brexit deadline nears; concessions unlikely ahead of Parliament vote on amendments
• US inflation to continue to soften could raise rate cut expectations

USD

King dollar is back, as the Treasury yield curve steadily declined in a week that was filled with fading optimism we will see clear signals that trade talks are nearing a framework deal and on global growth slowdown concerns. The dollar was stronger against all of its major trading partners with the exception of the Japanese yen as risk aversion remained the dominant theme. High-beta currencies remain vulnerable, despite last month's clear dovish pivot by the Fed, as accommodative stances were signaled by RBA and BOE this week, joining the likes of the ECB, RNBZ and PBOC.

Stocks

US stocks seem to lack direction, despite accommodative stances signaled across the board by all the major economies, as uncertainty remains high on both global growth concerns and the trade front. Key deadlines on trade are nearing; On February 17th a report is due from Commerce Department on potential tariffs on European autos and the March 1st deadline for China to deliver enough concessions to the US to avoid an increase in tariffs from 10% to 25%. Stocks pared losses on Friday after some positive corporate earnings, but will unlikely see the remaining companies due to report deliver another major move higher. Until the markets see clarity and substantial progress on political risks on Brexit, the trade war between China and the US, the brewing one with the US and Europe, and the government shutdown, it will be difficult for stocks to make a run towards last year's highs.

Brexit

With seven weeks left until the UK's exit from the EU, the base case for Brexit remains that it will be extended. Thursday's talks with the EU did not deliver any concessions but signalled they will remain open and likely come to a head later in the month. Next week, PM May will need to deliver a revised deal in the House of Commons on February 13th and Parliament will vote on amendments the next day. Brussels is starting to worry they are going to get blamed if we see a no-deal Brexit, but is unlikely to compromise on the backstop or offer up any significant concessions to PM May.

Oil

West Texas Intermediate crude's biggest weekly loss since December came as oil drillers ramped up drilling for the second time this year and US is speaking directly to Venezuela's military insisting they abandon support for Maduro. Working American oil rigs rose 0.8% to 854 rigs this week, a sign that producers are becoming more optimistic as oil prices remain well off the December lows. Increased US production and a positive resolution in Venezuela, alongside with the ending of sanctions could however spur significant downward pressure for oil prices.

Bitcoin

Securities and Exchange Commissioner Robert Jackson may have thrown Bitcoin a lifeline that may have squeezed out shorts and prevented a collapse below the heavily watched $3,000 level. The commissioner expressed optimism that he eventually could see a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund gain approval from the SEC. While the hurdles for a crypto exchange-traded fund are immense, today's headlines just squeezed out shorts and may not reflect the optimism of any significant progress forward. The security risks are too great and despite the fall in volatility, we could see this rally find key resistance from the $4,000 level.

Monday, February 11

USD Trade talks resume in Beijing
CNY China FX Reserves
4:30am GBP UK GDP, Manufacturing, and Industrial Production data
11:00am MXN Industrial Production

Tuesday, January 12

Corporate Earnings: Under Armour
OPEC Monthly Report
6:00am USD NFIB Small Business Optimism
7:00am INR India CPI and Industrial Production
6:30pm Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, February 13

GBP Deadline for revised deal in House of Commons
Corporate Earnings: Cisco, MGM, and Baidu
4:30am GBP CPI, PPI, RPI and House price data
05:00 EUR Euro Zone Industrial Production
8:30am USD Consumer Price Index (CPI)
6:50pm JPY Q4 Preliminary GDP

Thursday, February 14

USD Continued trade talks with China
GBP UK Parliament votes on amendments
Corporate Earnings: Coca-Cola,
2:00am EUR Germany Q4 Preliminary GDP
5:00am EUR Euro Zone Q4 Preliminary GDP
8:30am USD Retail Sales, Jobless Claims and PPI
8:30pm CNY China CPI and PPI data

Friday, February 15

Corporate Earnings: Pepsico, Nvidia, and Deere & Co
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m
8:30am USD Empire Manufacturing and Import Price Index
10:00am USD University of Michigan Sentiment
4:00pm Net Long-term TIC Flows

Pivot (invalidation): 52.60

Our preference Short positions below 52.60 with targets at 51.70 & 51.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 52.60 look for further upside with 53.00 & 53.40 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows downside momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 15.8400

Our preference Short positions below 15.8400 with targets at 15.6800 & 15.6200 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 15.8400 look for further upside with 15.9000 & 15.9900 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows downside momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 1315.00

Our preference Short positions below 1315.00 with targets at 1308.00 & 1305.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1315.00 look for further upside with 1317.00 & 1319.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows downside momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 5.2380

Our preference Long positions above 5.2380 with targets at 5.2780 & 5.2960 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 5.2380 look for further downside with 5.2220 & 5.2060 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Pivot (invalidation): 2682.00

Our preference Long positions above 2682.00 with targets at 2725.00 & 2740.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 2682.00 look for further downside with 2671.75 & 2651.50 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Pivot (invalidation): 10980.00

Our preference Short positions below 10980.00 with targets at 10850.00 & 10770.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 10980.00 look for further upside with 11090.00 & 11180.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.