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USDZAR has continued to print lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart, keeping the medium-term picture decisively negative. Enhancing this view, price action is taking place firmly below both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Notice that the two seem set to meet soon, and if the 50-day falls below the 200-day one, that would mark a so-called “death cross”.

Short-term momentum oscillators are inconclusive but support a broadly bearish picture. The RSI is near its oversold zone though seems to be bottoming, while the MACD just crossed below its trigger line.

Further declines in the pair could encounter initial support around 13.07, the July low, with even steeper declines aiming for 12.90 – a zone marked by the peaks of May. Lower still, attention would shift to the 12.37 area, which capped the pullback on May 24.

On the other hand, a rebound may meet resistance around 13.53, the December low. An upside break could see the bulls challenge the 200-day SMA at 13.82, and if they overcome that, the next obstacle is the crossroads of the 50-day SMA and the 13.97 zone.

In short, the picture is firmly negative, though a break above the aforementioned crossroads could turn it neutral.

GBPUSD faces correction weakness on price rejection following its flat close on Thursday. Support is seen at 1.3000 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.2950 level where a break will turn focus to the 1.2900 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2850 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.2800 level. On the upside, resistance stands at the 1.3100 with a turn above here allowing for additional strength to build up towards the 1.3150 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1.3200 level followed by the 1.3250 level. On the whole, GBPUSD faces further upside pressure.

It has been another rough trading week for the Dollar as a ‘patient’ Federal Reserve fuelled speculation over a possible pause to US monetary tightening this year.

Friday’s main risk event for the Greenback and potential market shaker will be the US jobs report for January, which should offer fresh insight into the health of the US labour force. With the US economy facing multiple headwinds in the form of fading fiscal stimulus and lagged effects of last year’s aggressive monetary policy tightening, today’s jobs report will certainly attract extra attention. Markets project the US economy to have created 165k jobs in January, with average earnings down by 0.3%, while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain steady at 3.9%.

There is a risk of the US jobs report printing below expectations, especially when considering how the 35-day government shutdown is seen distorting some key figures – with unemployment in mind. While every section of the report is of significant importance, investors will be keeping a very close eye on wage growth. Signs of wage growth struggling to accelerate is poised to stimulate concerns over subdued inflationary pressures, a point the Federal Reserve made in January’s FOMC policy meeting.

The Dollar’s depressed price action this week suggests that bulls are tired and clearly in trouble. A disappointing jobs report should place bears back in the driver’s seat with the Dollar Index seen sinking towards 95.00. A solid weekly close below the 95.00 level should encourage a steeper decline towards 94.20.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold has shone with great intensity this week reaching levels not seen in eight months thanks to a dovish Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks and a broadly weaker US Dollar.

The yellow metal concluded January on an incredibly positive note with prices trading around $1,321 as of writing. Market expectations over the Federal Reserve taking a break on rate hikes and persistent concerns over slowing global growth are themes that will ensure Gold remains in fashion. Appetite towards the precious metal could receive another boost this afternoon if the US jobs report is unable to meet market expectations.

Focusing purely on -technical aspects, Gold fulfils the prerequisites of a bullish trend on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. A solid weekly close above the $1,324 level may open a clean path towards $1,340. Bulls remain dominant and in control above the psychological $1,300 level.

Eurozone CPI slowed to 1.4% yoy in January, down from 1.6% yoy, matched expectation. Core CPI, rose to 1.1% yoy, up from 1.0% yoy and beat expectation of 1.0% yoy.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in January (2.6%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (1.8%), services (1.6%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.3%).

Full release here.

The pair holds within tight consolidation and awaiting US jobs data for fresh signals after pullback from 110 resistance zone showed initial signs of stall. Thursday's strong downside rejection left daily hammer, suggesting that easing might be over.

Rising bullish momentum on daily chart supports the notion, however signals from other indicators are mixed.

Daily MA's remain in negative setup (20SMA offers immediate resistance at 109.03) while daily RSI and stochastic are flat, lacking clearer direction signal. US NFP data are expected to provide more clues, with weaker than expected figures likely to increase pressure on the dollar and risk acceleration towards strong supports 107.97/93 (daily Kijun-sen/Fibo 38.2% of 104.59/109.99 bull-leg.

Conversely, lift and close above a cluster of daily MA's (between 109.03 and 109.36) would neutralize downside risk and re-expose pivotal 110 resistance.

Res: 109.03, 109.36, 109.74, 110.00
Sup: 108.72, 108.49, 107.93, 107.76

A subdued session in Asia and early on in Europe looks to be carrying over to the US on Friday, with futures mixed ahead of the open on Wall Street.

Trade talks between the US and China in Washington appear to have gone very well, with trade representative praising the "substantial progress" on various issues and Trump himself expressing optimism at the prospect of the "biggest deal ever made". Both sides will be hoping that enough progress will have been made by later this month, when Trump and Xi are expected to meet to confirm a deal.

Both have good reason to find a compromise on the issue and avoid further tariffs, or even reverse those previously imposed. The Chinese economy is currently in the midst of an economic slowdown – as evidenced by the worrying manufacturing PMIs this week – and Trump will be hoping to secure re-election next year and is in need of a big win.

Trump will be particularly keen to divert attention away from the government shutdown and onto a good news story, after he was forced to back down and reopen government without funding for the wall. Of course, the fight is not over for the wall but a deal with China will certainly take the pressure off.

That brings us nicely to the US jobs report, which is scheduled to be released today, despite the delays to other data releases because of the shutdown. The shutdown itself is not expected to have a direct impact on the non-farm payrolls figure, but there may be less significant indirect impacts that weigh on the number. With that in mind, it would take quite a horrible number to grab people's attention, with investors most likely shrugging off the data as an anomaly.

With everything appearing to be a dollar-negative headline right now, I wonder whether the jobs report may offer the greenback some reprieve. If markets are already expecting a potential blip in the report then the room for upside surprise may be significant. Positive Sino-US trade talks and a more dovish Fed have dragged on the dollar over the last month or two so some bullish headlines may be welcomed.

Gold has been the biggest beneficiary of the weaker dollar, climbing above $1,300 last Friday before running into resistance around $1,320 in the middle of the week. We continue to trade around these levels and a good report may put pressure back on $1,300 from above and test just how much conviction there is in the initial breakout. I remain bullish on gold, with numerous factors providing an ongoing bearish case for the greenback.

During Thursday's trading session, the currency exchange rate depreciated to 1.1440, passing through the support levels of the 55-hour simple moving average and the 50.00% Fibo. On Friday, the rate was located above the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1464 mark.

It is expected that European Single Currency will surge towards the weekly R2 at 1.1500. In addition, the 50.00% Fibo should support the rate during the day.

On the other hand, the European Single Currency could depreciate against the US Dollar during today's US Employment data sets release at 13:30 GMT to trade at the 1.1400 level.

During Friday's morning hours, the British Pound passed through the support levels of the 55-hour and the 200-hour simple moving averages to trade at the 1.3047 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the rate will be resisted by the bottom boundary of the descending pattern line at 1.3050 mark to break the weekly pivot point at the 1.3084 mark.

However, the British Pound could depreciate against the US Dollar during today's US Employment data sets release at 13:30 GMT to touch the bottom boundary of the medium ascending pattern line at 1.3000.

During Thursday's trading session, the rate depreciated to 108.40, as it was expected. On Friday morning, the US Dollar appreciated against the Japanese Yen to the 108.93 mark.

Most likely, the US Dollar will depreciate against the Japanese Yen to trade between the weekly S2 at 108.71 and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the other hand, the currency exchange rate could break through the resistance of the weekly S1 at 109.14 during today's US Dollar during today's US Employment data sets release at 13:30 GMT.

On Friday morning, the yellow metal was located at the 1,319.82 mark. Besides, the 55-hour simple moving average supported the rate during the morning hours.

In regards to the near-term future, it is expected that the gold will meet the upper boundary of the descending pattern line at 1,325.00 to bounce off to the 1,320.00 level.

On the other hand, the yellow metal could break through the resistance level of the pattern line at 1,325.00 during today's US Dollar during today's US Employment data sets release at 13:30 GMT.