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USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9917; (P) 0.9956; (R1) 0.9981; More....
USD/CHF retreated sharply after hitting 0.9994 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Further rise is expected as long as 0.9905 support holds. We're holding on to the view that corrective pull back from 1.0128 has completed at 0.9716 already. On the upside, break of 0.9994 will resume the rise from 0.9716 to retest 1.0128 high. However, break of 0.9905 will dampen this view and turn bias to the downside.
In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Break of 0.9963 will affirm this bullish case. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9716 will dampen this bullish view and at least bring deeper fall to 0.9541 key support.
UK’s Net Consumer Credit Advanced Less-Than-Estimated In December
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.28% against the USD and closed at 1.3117.
On the data front, UK's net consumer credit rose £0.7 billion in December, less than market expectations for a rise of £0.8 billion. In the previous month, net consumer credit had recorded a rise of £0.9 billion. Moreover, Britain's mortgage approvals slightly fell to a level of 63.8K in December, less than market consensus for a drop to a level of 63.0K. In the preceding month, the mortgage approvals had recorded a reading of 63.9K.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3132, with the GBP trading 0.11% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
Overnight data showed that, the nation's GFK consumer confidence remained unchanged at a level of -14.0 in January, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of -15.0.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3076, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3020. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3167, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3202.
Trading trend in the Sterling today is expected to be determined by UK's Nationwide house price index for January, set to release in a while.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Japan’s Industrial Production Dropped In December
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.06% against the CHF and closed at 0.9940.
On the macro front, Switzerland's KOF leading indicator unexpectedly slid to a level of 95.0 in December, following a reading of 96.3 in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged the indicator to advance to a level of 97.2.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9927, with the USD trading 0.13% lower against the CHF from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9902, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9876. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9974, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0020.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicator Surprisingly Eased In December
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.06% against the CHF and closed at 0.9940.
On the macro front, Switzerland's KOF leading indicator unexpectedly slid to a level of 95.0 in December, following a reading of 96.3 in the previous month. Market participants had envisaged the indicator to advance to a level of 97.2.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9927, with the USD trading 0.13% lower against the CHF from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9902, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9876. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9974, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0020.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Loonie Extends Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.93% against the CAD and closed at 1.3147.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3132, with the USD trading 0.11% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3079, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3027. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3224, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3317.
Moving forward, traders would keep an eye on Canada’s gross domestic product for November and the CFIB business barometer for January, scheduled to release later in the day.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Aussie Trading On A Stronger Footing In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 1.33% against the USD and closed at 0.7249.
LME Copper prices rose 1.2% or $70.0/MT to $6077.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 1.0% or $18.0/MT to $1871.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7267, with the AUD trading 0.25% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
Overnight data indicated that private sector credit rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in December, less than market expectations for a rise of 0.3%. In the previous month, private sector credit had climbed 0.3%.
Elsewhere in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, the NBS manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to a level of 49.5 in January, confounding market expectations for a fall to a level of 49.3. In the previous month, the PMI had recorded a reading of 49.4.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7208, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7148. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7300, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7332.
Going forward, investors would await Australia’s AiG performance of manufacturing index and the CBA manufacturing PMI, both for January, slated to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Gold: Yellow Metal Reverses Its Gains In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.67% against the USD and closed at USD1325.00 per ounce, amid broad weakness in the US dollar.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1323.90, with gold trading 0.08% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1315.40, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1306.90. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1330.50, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1337.10.
The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Silver: White Metal Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 1.45% against the USD and closed at USD16.08 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 16.04, with silver trading 0.25% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 15.89, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.75. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.15, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.27.
The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 2.10% against the USD and closed at USD54.44 per barrel, as political uncertainties in Venezuela escalated worries over global supply.
Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report indicated that US crude oil stockpiles rose 0.9 million barrels to 445.9 million in the week ended 25 January 2019.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 54.66, with oil trading 0.40% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 53.52, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 52.39. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 55.36, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 56.07.
Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.66; (P) 109.20; (R1) 109.60; More...
USD/JPY's break of 109.14 minor support suggests that whole rebound from 104.69 has completed at 110.00 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 107.77 support first. Decisive break there should confirm this bearish case and target retesting 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 110.00 will extend the rebound. But we'd expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it's a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.
