Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3246; (P) 1.3266; (R1) 1.3291; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3180 is extending. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3375 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.3180 will resume the fall from 1.3664 to 61.8% projection of 1.3664 to 1.3180 from 1.3375 at 1.3076 next.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) is not clearly impulsive so far. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3036) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1413; (P) 1.1431; (R1) 1.1452; More.....

No change in EUR/USD's outlook. With 1.1390 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor. Corrective pattern from 1.1215 is possibly still extending, with rise from 1.1289 as another leg. Further rally would be seen to 1.1569 resistance and above. On the downside, below 113.90 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1289 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3012; (P) 1.3106; (R1) 1.3161; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for now. Focus is back on 1.3012 minor support. Break of 1.3012 support will suggest rejection by 1.3174 key resistance, and turn bias to the downside for 1.2814 support. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3174 key resistance will argue that whole decline from 1.4376 has completed at 1.2391. In such case, further rise should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1946 (2016 low) to 1.4376 (2018 high) is seen as a corrective move. Similarly, fall from 1.4376 to 1.2391 also displace a corrective structure. Current development suggests that rise from 1.2391 is the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 and could extend beyond 1.4376 high. Firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 will affirm this case. On the downside, break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.2865) will turn focus back to 1.2391 low instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9917; (P) 0.9938; (R1) 0.9968; More....

USD/CHF recovers notably after hitting 0.9905. But upside is limited below 0.9990 so far. Intraday bias remains neutral more consolidation could be seen. Below 0.9905 will bring deeper retreat. But downside should be contained by 0.9856 resistance turn support to bring another rally. As note before, corrective pull back from 1.0128 has completed at 0.9716 already. Above 0.9990 will extend the rise from 0.9716 to retest 1.0128 high.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF drew strong support from medium term trend line and rebounded. That suggests rise from 0.9186 is still in progress. Break of 0.9963 will affirm this bullish case. Further break of 1.0128 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.0342 key resistance. Nevertheless, break of 0.9716 will dampen this bullish view and at least bring deeper fall to 0.9541 key support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.16; (P) 109.35; (R1) 109.58; More...

USD/JPY is staying in range of 109.14/110.00 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 110.00 will resume the rebound from 104.69. But we'd expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 114.54 to 104.69 at 110.77 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 109.14 minor support will be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downside for 107.77 minor support first.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 is strong, there is no change in the view that it's a corrective move. That is, fall from 114.54, as part of the decline from 118.65 (2016 high), is not completed yet. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51, which is close to 100 psychological level. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 110.82) will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 114.54 resistance instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.29; (P) 143.37; (R1) 144.02; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 144.84 temporary top. Further rise is still expected as long as 140.62 support holds. Above 144.84 will extend the rebound from 131.51 to trendline resistance at around 147.35. We'd expect strong resistance from there to limit upside at first attempt. On the downside, firm break of 140.62 will suggest completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 131.51 suggests that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed already. The corrective structure of such decline is turn argues that it's the second leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). And this pattern is starting the third leg. On the upside, decisive break of 149.38 will pave the way to 156.59 resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.73; (P) 124.99; (R1) 125.30; More....

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook. With 123.78 minor support intact, further rise is expected. Rebound from 118.62 is in progress for 55 day EMA (now at 126.23). Though, break of 123.78 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already, with corrective structure. Fall from 137.39 is possibly just the second leg of the corrective pattern from 109.03. Break of 133.12 resistance should start the third leg to 137.49 and above. Nevertheless, break of 118.62 will resume the decline from 137.49 for 109.03/114.84 support zone instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1315; (P) 1.1330; (R1) 1.1351; More...

EUR/CHF surges to as high as 1.3918 as rebound from 1.1181 extends. The break of 1.1348 resistance confirms our bullish view that fall from 1.1501 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.1501 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1259 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is expected in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5938; (P) 1.5973; (R1) 1.6011; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.5774 extends. Near term outlook stays bearish with 1.6154 resistance intact and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.5774 will resume the fall from 1.6765 and target 1.5346 key support next. On the upside, break of 1.6154 will argue that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.6765.

In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high) argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

General Trend:

• No news out of US, China trade talks
• Apple rises following its guidance, Nasdaq Futures outperform
• China Life declines over 3% on profit warning
• Hong Kong property developer Hang Lung FY profits miss ests, Property sales -64% y/y
• Property developer Jiayuan International resumed trading (rises over 20%), issued statement on margin loans
• Brokerage sector weighs on Japanese equities, Daiwa Securities down after recent earnings report
• Iron ore miners gain in Australia, prices rise in China on Vale dam accident
• Australian auto distributor G.U.D declines over 10% on financial results
• LG Display declines after guidance, Posco rises ahead of earnings
• Australia Q4 inflation data remains below RBA target range (2-3%)
• Aussie and 3-year bond yields rise, headline inflation was above ests
• British Pound (GBP) rises in Asian trading after recent parliamentary votes
• Mexican Peso (MXN) declines on PEMEX downgrade
• Chinese yuan (CNY) continues to be set stronger amid the US/China talks
• US/China trade talks are expected to conclude on Jan 31st
• US Fed expected to deliver rate decision later on Wed
• Companies expected to report earnings on Wed are ADP, AT&T, Alibaba, Boeing, Facebook, McDonald’s, Microsoft, Mondelez, Nasdaq, Qualcomm, Tesla, Tupperware, US Steel, Visa, Wynn Resorts (includes afterhours)

Headlines/Economic Data

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +0.2%
• TM Reports Dec Global Production 655.9K units, -4.7% y/y
• (JP) Reportedly the EU will lift import ban on Japanese egg and dairy products – Nikkei
• (JP) Sen Grassley (R-IA): not that confident a Japan trade deal can reached this year
• (JP) JAPAN DEC PRELIM RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.9% V 0.4%E; Dec Retail Trade y/y: 1.3% v 1.0%e ; Dec Department Store, Supermarket Sales y/y: -1.0% v -1.1%e
• 4506.JP Notes along with Sanbio that Phase 2B study evaluating SB623 for the Treatment of Chronic Stroke did not meet primary endpoint [-18.5%]

Korea

• Kospi opened flat
• 034220.KR Reports FY18 (KRW) Net -179.4B v +1.9T y/y; Op 92.9B v 2.46T y/y; Rev 24.3T v 27.8T y/y
• (KR) South Korea Fin Min Hong: Confirms reviewing stock transaction tax reform - Yonhap
• (KR) South Korea Fin Min Hong: Jan exports growth likely to show weaker growth y/y
• (KR) US Dir of National Intelligence Coats: North Korea likely will not give up its nuclear weapons and production capabilities

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened +0.1%, Shanghai Composite -0.4%
• (CN) China developers have issued $8.6B in offshore bonds in 2019 YTD, more than double y/y – SCMP
• (CN) China pushing its foreign investment law through approves, as it will give more protection to foreign companies; one of the things the US is seeking in trade talks – SCMP
• (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY50B in 14-day reverse repos v skips prior; Net: CNY50B injects v CNY0Bprior (1st injection in 8 sessions)
• (CN) China PBoC sets Yuan Reference Rate: 6.7343 v 6.7356 prior
• (CN) China Govt's China Centre for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) researcher Zhang Yansheng: The fundamental differences over economic issues, political systems and security between China and US will not be resolved by the March 1st deadline, will likely carry on much longer - SCMP

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened -0.5%
• (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 CPI Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.7%E (2nd consecutive reading below 2-3% target range)
• NCM.AU Reports Q1 gold production 548.4K oz v 522.9K y/y at AISC $778/oz v $898 y/y, copper production 24.9K tons v 16.7K y/y; Affirms FY19 production

Other Asia

• (TH) Thailand Fin Min Apisak: Central bank should ensure THB currency (Baht) is not too volatile and not stronger than those of trading partners

North America

• (US) Federal Reserve (FED): Policymakers to meet as scheduled on Wed, despite late opening of US government offices on weather conditions
• (MX) US Trade Representative has submitted to Congress the list of changes to law needed to implement the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement
• AAPL Reports Q1 $4.18 v $4.17e, Rev $84.3B v $84.1Be
• EBAY Reports Q4 $0.71 v $0.68e, Rev $2.88B v $2.86Be; initiates $0.14/shr dividend (1.66% indicated yield); expands share repurchases by $4B (12% of market cap)

Europe

• (UK) Parliament votes in favor of Spellman Amendment (I), against PM May's wishes; vote was 318-310; 'Amendment I' is a non-binding amendment that would block a 'no deal' Brexit
• (UK) Parliament passes Brady Amendment in 317-301 vote; PM May supported the Brady Amendment that calls for the Irish backstop to be replaced with alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border

Levels as of 12:40ET

• Hang Seng +0.1%; Shanghai Composite -0.3%; Kospi +0.6%; Nikkei225 -0.4%; ASX 200 +0.2%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.7%, Dax -0.3%; FTSE100 -0.2%
• EUR 1.1427-1.1448; JPY 109.22-109.44 ; AUD 0.7150-0.7200;NZD 0.68-0.68
• Commodity Futures: Gold +0.3% at $1,313/oz; Crude Oil +0.2% at $53.41/brl; Copper +0.3% at $2.73/lb