Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6151; (P) 1.6189; (R1) 1.6226; More....

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the upside for retesting 1.6357 resistance first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend for 1.6587 key resistance next. On the downside, even in case of another fall, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.5984 support holds.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5984 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back. However, sustained break of 1.5984 will be an early sign of trend reversal.

Pivot (invalidation): 11600.00

Our preference Short positions below 11600.00 with targets at 11465.00 & 11365.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 11600.00 look for further upside with 11680.00 & 11730.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1391; (P) 1.1447; (R1) 1.1477; More...

EUR/CHF drops steeply after hitting 1.1501 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is still mildly in favor as long as 1.1392 minor support holds. Above 1.1501 will extend the rise from 1.1173 to 1.1713 resistance next. However, break of 1.1392 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1154/98 zone again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1234) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.

Most of the European markets closed in a negative territory yesterday and looking at the markets today, we do not think things aren’t going to be any different today

European markets and US futures are trading lower picking up the momentum from Wall Street. Most of the European markets closed in a negative territory yesterday and looking at the markets today, we do not think things aren’t going to be any different today. Geopolitical tensions, Italian budget woes and the ongoing standoff between the European Commission and Italy are making investors nervous. Given that there is no solution about the trade war between the US and China stand is making things a bit more arduous today.

We need to have a solution to the Italian budget. Investors are going to keep a close eye on the European Commission's decision today about the Italian budget. The commission may end up doing something which is unprecedented- it may ask Italy to revise and resubmit its budget. It is widely expected that the commission is going to have a negative opinion about the budget, but the question is if Italy will be ready to comply with the request?

The Italian banking sector could be the primary trade here because if the Italian bond spread touched the 400 basis points, it is going to create a lot of trouble for the sector. The bond spread has already touched a five-year high of 341 basis points on Friday.

Back in the UK, Theresa May lives to fight another day while the Pound touched two weeks low yesterday and the selling pressure isn't going away. There are chances that Britain gets out of the EU without a deal and if that scenario becomes a reality, it is likely that we may see another 10% drop for the pound. Of course, the other side of the coin is that if Theresa May does perform a miracle and secures a deal with the EU, it is likely that we may see a small rally for the pound.

As for the yellow gold, there is still a strong demand and this is keeping the price green. We are holding our target of 1250 for gold and the price could touch this level by the end of this week or early next week. The continuing tension between the US and Saudi Arabia and the lacklustre picture of the global economic growth is behind the current move.

XAUUSD (1224.18): Gold prices managed to consolidate above the support level of 1225.35 before slipping past this level. At the time of writing, gold prices are seen retracing the losses. However, failure to close past the 1225.35 level which could now act as resistance could signal the downside. The lower support at 1207 becomes the first support level of interest which could be tested. To the upside, gold will need to close back above 1225.35 and preferably post a higher high to confirm the upside.

GBPUSD (1.2963): The GBPUSD currency pair broke past the support level of the 1.3054 - 1.3028 region. The break down below the support level indicates further declines are likely on the horizon. The next main support is seen at 1.2808. In the near term, any rebound is expected to stall near the recently breached support level which could be tested for resistance. In the event that GBPUSD closes back above this level, we expect a short-term change in the trend.

EURUSD (1.1456): The EURUSD currency pair extended declines on Monday as price action failed to break past the resistance level of 1.1540. Price action is seen retesting the familiar support area of 1.1450 - 1.1435 level. A break down below this support area will signal further declines as it invalidates the double bottom pattern. However, there is scope for the common currency to maintain the range between the sideways range currently in place.

The U.S. dollar managed to post some moderate gains on Monday amid lack of any fundamentals to go by. Japan's all industries activity was seen rising 0.5% on the month which beat forecasts of a 0.4% increase.

Canada's wholesale sales fell 0.1% on the month which missed estimates. Previous month's data was revised down to 1.1%. The British pound was seen easing back on Monday on concerns about the UK's government stability in light of the Brexit negotiation.

The economic calendar for the day will see Japan's core CPI from the BoJ being released. Core inflation was seen rising 0.5% for the previous month.

The European session will see Germany's producer prices data coming out. German PPI is expected to rise 0.3% on the month, marking the same pace of increase as the month before.

The NY trading session is quiet with no major releases scheduled. FOMC member Bostic is scheduled to speak later in the evening. The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney will also be speaking today.

The euro currency is back under strong downside pressure against the US dollar, with the price now trading closer to key weekly support. A successful break below the 1.1431 support level is likely to accelerate EURUSD technical selling, breaking the recent bullish double-bottom. A break below the 1.1431 level could also trigger a bearish head and shoulders pattern with a sizeable downside projection.

The EURUSD pair is strongly bearish while trading below the 1.1480 level, key support is now found at the 1.1431 and 1.1380 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1480 level, key intraday resistance is found at the 1.1500 and 1.1550 levels.

The British pound is testing towards the 1.2960 support level against the US dollar after bearish Brexit news caused a sharp price reversal in the GBPUSD pair on Monday. A strong break below the 1.2960 level exposes further intraday downside towards the 1.2900 support level. Sellers are also close to negating the bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern across the lower time frames.

The GBPUSD pair is strongly bearish while trading below the 1.2960 level, key support is now found at the 1.2918 and 1.2885 levels.

If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3000 level, buyers are likely to test the 1.3055 and 1.3080 resistance levels.