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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8758; (P) 0.8777; (R1) 0.8807; More...

EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8722 extends higher today but it's limited well below 0.8847 support turned resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and another fall is expected. On the downside, break of 0.8772 will target 0.8620 low first. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 0.9304. In that case, next target will be 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9097 at 0.8412.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current development suggests that fall from 0.9303, as a down leg in the pattern, is still in progress. But in case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 0.8116 cluster support, 50% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9304 at 0.8120, to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1443; (P) 1.1469; (R1) 1.1488; More...

A temporary top is formed at 1.1491 in EUR/CHF is intraday bias is turned neutral first. Overall, we're holding on to the view on bullish trend reversal after EUR/CHF drew support from 1.1154/98 zone. Thus, another rise is expected. On the upside above 1.1491 will target 1.1713 resistance for confirmation. Break there will target a test on 1.2004 high next. Meanwhile, note that upside momentum is not to convincing so far. Break of 1.1360 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1154/98 zone again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1234) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.

USD rose against major currencies with the exception of JPY and GBP. As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 9, NET LENGTH of USD index climbed slightly, by +673 contracts, to 37 709 contracts. Both speculative long and short positions increased during the week.

Bulls of European currencies shied away, deepening NET SHORTS in both EUR and GBP. For the former, speculative long positions dropped -2 423 contracts while shorts rose +6 618 contracts, sending NET SHORT to 16 142 for the week. NET SHORT for GBP futures increased -1 167 contracts to 60 507, thanks for the -600 units drop in speculative long contracts and the 567 units increase in shorts. This was despite the rebound in GBP during the week. GBP would be closely monitored this week as the officials head for the EU summit for Brexit negotiation on October 18.

On safe-haven currencies, Net SHORT for CHF futures dropped -599 contracts to 12 803 while that for JPY futures deepened, by 115 201 contracts, to 115 201 during the week. Both speculative long and short positions fell last week, yet the former overwhelmed.

All commodity currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. NET SHORT for AUD futures rose +1 566 contracts to 73 284, while that for NZD futures gained +3 224 contracts to 33 820. NET SHORT for CAD futures fell -6 339 contracts to 12 145.

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended October 9, traders turned less bullish on the energy market. NET LENGTH for crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures dropped. Speculative long positions of crude oil futures declined -20 782 contracts, while shorts added +76 contracts, resulting in a fall in NET LENGTH, by -20 858 contracts, to 528 051 contracts. For refined oil products, Net LENGTH for heating oil futures dropped -736 contracts to 47 777, while that for gasoline was down -3 676 contracts to 108 965. During the week, oil prices continued to pull back from peak levels with the front-month WTI crude oil contract slipped -0.36% . Net SHORT for natural gas plunged -21 471 contracts, to 21 471 contracts for the week. The Nymex natural gas contract rallied +3.16%. Consecutive weekly surges has sent price to last winter's level. US EIA reported that domestic natural gas inventory is staying 8-year low in the week ended October 5. This is another reason supporting bids.

On the precious metal complex, NET SHORT in gold and silver futures would likely stay for some time, as rising US yields are raising opportunity for holding precious metals. Speculative long positions for the former sank -12 744, while shorts rose +3 609, resulting in a surge in NET SHORT to 38 175 contracts. For the latter, speculative long positions fell -3 802 while shorts gained +950, resulting in an increase in NET SHORT, by +4 752 contracts, to 22 2250 contracts. For PGMs, NET LENGTH of Nymex platinum futures added +1 177 contracts to 8 226 while that for palladium gained +1 249 contracts to 11 361.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2999; (P) 1.3026; (R1) 1.3050; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3081 will be the first sign of completion of whole choppy fall from 1.3385. In that case, near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.3225 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 1.2886 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2781 instead. That would also argue that fall from 1.3385 is still in progress for another low.

In the bigger picture, corrective rebound from 1.2061 could have completed at 1.3385 already. Deeper fall is mildly in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support. For now, we're not seeing fall from 1.3385 as resuming larger down trend from 1.4689 (2015 high) yet. Thus, we'll look for bottoming signal again below 1.2567 . On the upside, though, break of 1.3081 resistance will argue that the pull back from 1.3385 is completed and rise from 1.2061 is resuming for another high above 1.3385.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7098; (P) 0.7119; (R1) 0.7137; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7040 is in progress. Another rise cannot be ruled out. But upside should bel limited well below 0.7314 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7040 will resume recent down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.91; (P) 112.20; (R1) 112.53; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point, but deeper fall is in favor. Decline from 114.54 is correcting whole rise from 104.62. Below 111.82 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We'll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support. On the upside, though, above 113.28 will indicate completion of the pull back and bring retest of 114.54 high.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9888; (P) 0.9910; (R1) 0.9937; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 0.9954 might still extend. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 0.9954 at 0.9796 to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 0.9954 will resume the rise from 0.9541 and target 1.0067 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1526; (P) 1.1569; (R1) 1.1602; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.1534 minor support. Break there will indicate completion of rebound from 1.1431. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1431 and then 1.1300 low. On the upside, above 1.1610 will extend the rebound from 1.1431 towards 1.1814 resistance. But we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.1779/1814 resistance zone to bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3113; (P) 1.3185; (R1) 1.3225; More...

GBP/USD's sharp fall and break of 1.3132 support suggests that rebound form 1.2921 has completed at 1.3257. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.2921 support first. Break there will resume the fall from 1.3297 and target 1.2661/2784 support zone. On the upside, in case of another rally, we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 1.3316 key fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.