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Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.15; (P) 148.58; (R1) 149.36; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 149.70 could extend with another fall. But after all, further rise is still expected as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. Break of 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone. However, break of 145.67 will suggests that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

Although a variety of headlines are circulating following President Trump's speech at the United Nations, financial market movements are slightly muted as investors around the globe prepare for the conclusion of the Federal Reserve policy meeting later today.

The Dollar is gradually moving higher against a mixture of different global counterparts, however this might not be a direct impact of Federal Reserve expectations and is likely instead a result of the protectionist reminders heard from Trump during his address at the United Nations and prolonged trade uncertainties.

In reality, there really are not any surprises that Trump used his speech at the United Nations to reiterate his “America First” message.

I would personally pay closer attention to the Federal Reserve decision later today because investors seem to be positioning that the “near certainty” of U.S. interest rates being raised this month will make this meeting a “non-event” for financial markets.

Personally I am doubtful on that one because with all the prolonged external uncertainties that contribute to an ongoing unpredictable financial market, everyone would like to know what the outlook for U.S. monetary policy might possibly be heading into 2019. If the Federal Reserve suggests that the pace of U.S. interest rate rises will slow down next year, or that they are cautious in general about more interest rate increases do not be surprised if the USD sells off against the board.

Elsewhere, traders need to keep a close eye on the British Pound with more Brexit discussions between the United Kingdom and European Union reported for today. There is even speculation the UK Prime Minister Theresa May will announce during a public address that the United Kingdom will have the lowest taxes in the G20 post-Brexit, which suggests to me that UK officials are now bracing for a potential hard-Brexit reality more than ever.

The British Pound continues to look over positioned that there will be a breakthrough and soft-Brexit eventuality with the Pound trading near 1.32 at time of writing. The upside potential from these levels is very limited on positive news, but the downside risks far more substantial if investors become concerned and decide to re-price in a potential hard-Brexit.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.50; (P) 132.80; (R1) 133.24; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 113.12 temporary top. Another fall could be seen. But in that case, as long as 130.86 resistance turned support holds, further rally is expected. On the upside, above 133.12 will target 100% projection of 124.89 to 130.86 from 127.85 at 133.82 first. Break will target 137.49 high. However, firm break of 130.86 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 127.85 support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/JPY has defended key support level of 124.08 key resistance turned support. And, the larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. This will now be the preferred case as long as 127.85 near term support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8907; (P) 0.8942; (R1) 0.8963; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. For now, we're holding on to the view that pull back from 0.9097 has completed at 0.8847 already. Further rise remains in favor. On the upside, above 0.8994 will target 0.9097 resistance first. Firm break there will resume the rise from 0.8620 towards 0.9305 high.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is staying in long term range pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). At this point, there is no clear sign of range break out yet. And more corrective trading would continue. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304/5 to limit upside in case of further rally. Meanwhile, if there is another medium term decline, strong support will likely be seen from 0.8303 to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6189; (P) 1.6224; (R1) 1.6264; More....

EUR/AU's sharp fall indicates temporary topping at 1.6252 and intraday bias is turned neutral. On the downside, break of 1.6051 will extend the correction from 1.6353. But downside should be contained well above 1.5886 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.5601 to 1.6353 at 1.5888) to bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.6252 will target a retest on 1.6353. Break there will resume larger up trend and should target 1.6587 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5886 resistance turned support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

The British pound has moved to a fresh weekly high against the greenback, as the US dollar index comes back under selling pressure towards the 94.00 level. The GBPUSD pair continues to retain its intraday bullish bias while trading above the 1.3113 support level. Buyers may attempt to break the 1.3200 level, while sellers may also be looking to enter the market around the 1.3200 level to gain a more attractive trade entry.

The GBPUSD pair is bullish while trading below the 1.3113 level, key resistance is now found at the 1.3200 and 1.3260 levels.

If the GBPUSD pair fails at current trading levels, sellers may force price towards the 1.3113 and 1.3070 levels.

The euro remains well supported against the US dollar, with traders still using any pullbacks in price to buy the single currency. Buyers need to break the upside of the symmetrical triangle pattern to keep the recent bullish momentum alive, while sellers need to force price below the triangle pattern. Trading ranges may start to narrow as market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of today’s FOMC interest rate decision.

The EURUSD pair is intraday bullish while trading above the 1.1730 level, key resistance is found at the 1.1812 and 1.1850 levels.

If the EURUSD pair moves below the 1.1730 level, price may decline towards the 1.1700 and 1.1650 support levels.

In the first week of September, the price of ETH fell sharply from $275 to a low of $205. It continued to decline falling to $157 during the second week of the month. Since then, the price moved higher and reached a high of $243. Today, the ETH/USD pair is trading at 204.

The upward and downward movement in ETH was in line with other cryptocurrencies. According to CoinMarketCap, the top 100 cryptocurrencies have a market capitalization of more than $209 billion. This is significantly lower than the $800 billion high in early January.

The recent movements in ETH has largely been attributed to technical traders who believed that the price was deeply oversold. This is because there has not been any major news this month. The biggest news was on the relevance and value of the cryptocurrency after a trending article by Tech Crunch.

This week, the SEC announced that it is closely monitoring the cryptocurrencies industry, especially Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). While there are no strict regulations on cryptocurrencies in the US, the SEC announced that it closely monitors scams associated with the industry. A few months ago, the agency went as far as creating a fake ICO website, complete with a whitepaper. This was a clear illustration about how easy it is to lose money in a fake ICO. The SEC also asked for more time before making a decision regarding ETFs.

Yesterday, the ETH/USD pair fell below the important support shown below. It then reached an intraday low of 197. The current price is below the 28 and 14-day EMA. It is also in the fourth phase of the Elliot Wave pattern. As the downward momentum continues, there is a likelihood that the pair will continue to move lower.

The Canadian dollar rose slightly against the greenback after US trade representative Robert Lighthizer said that he was ready to move on without Canada. A NAFTA deal without Canada will be a big blow to the free trade that exists in North America. The main issue at hand is regarding the heavy milk tariffs Canada has on all imports. Experts believe that the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, will not accept an agreement to provide the US with increased access to the Canadian dairy market. The supply management system currently in place aims to protect farmers by limiting dairy production in Canada and putting quotas on imports.

The US dollar is little moved ahead of today’s interest rates decision by the Federal Reserve. The Fed is expected to implement the third rate hike this year. Most importantly, traders will be looking at the forward guidance for the December meeting. While the economy is strong, experts fear that more rate hikes could lead to a yield curve inversion.

The New Zealand dollar rose in the Asian session even after disappointing trade data. In August, exports fell to N$4.05 billion from July’s N$5.34 billion. Imports were unchanged at N$5.54 billion. This widened the deficit to more than N$1.4 billion. This data came a day before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to release its interest rate decision. Traders expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged but they will closely watch out for the accompanying statement.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair reached a double bottom this month when it hit a low of 0.6500. It then started moving up and today, it reached a high of 0.6688. The current price is above the 28 and 14-day EMA while the MACD is heading downwards. If the upward momentum continues, it will test the important support of 0.6720.

EUR/USD

In September, the EUR/USD pair has moved from 1.1600 and reached a monthly high of 1.1813. This week, the pair has been mostly unchanged as traders wait for the statement from the Fed. As shown below, this has led to a convergence in price which is an indication that a breakout will happen shortly after the interest rates decision. A dovish Fed will take the pair to the 1.1900 resistance while a hawkish Fed will take it to the 1.1500 support.

USD/CAD

Over the past week, the USD/CAD pair has been in consolidation mode as traders waited for the deadline on the NAFTA negotiations and the Fed’s decision. During that time, the pair has traded between the support and resistance levels of 1.2885 and 1.2970. This consolidation is an indication that a breakout in the upward or downward direction will be likely. This will probably happen today after the Fed’s decision.

The US dollar fell slightly against the basket of major currencies before the Fed meeting. Today, at the end of the meeting, the regulator will publish a decision on the interest rate. Financial market participants expect that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 25 basis points up to 2-2.25% per annum. Also, investors expect any signs of a further increase in the rate. The US dollar index (#DX) closed in the negative zone (-0.07%).

Yesterday, CB consumer confidence index was also published in the US, which counted to 138.4 in September and was better than the forecasted value of 132.2. This is the maximum value for the last 18 years, which indicates the economic growth in the country. Today, we recommend paying attention to the US news feed.

The "black gold" prices are consolidating. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing a mark of $72.15 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+3:00) a report on crude oil inventories will be published.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.09%), #DIA (-0.26%), #QQQ (+0.14%).

At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at the level of 3.09-3.10%.

The news feed on 26.09.2018:

New home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+3:00);

Fed interest rate decision at 21:00 (GMT+3:00).