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Aussie Trading On A Negative Footing In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.26% against the USD and closed at 0.7252.
LME Copper prices rose 1.9% or $117.0/MT to $6320.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.1% or $1.0/MT to $2035.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7244, with the AUD trading 0.11% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7228, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7211. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7270, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7295.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Gold: Yellow Metal Reverses Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.26% against the USD and closed at USD1203.60 per ounce, ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1202.70, with gold trading 0.07% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1197.93, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1193.17. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1208.13, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1213.57.
The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Silver: White Metal Trading Lower This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.42% against the USD and closed at USD14.31 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 14.27, with silver trading 0.28% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 14.19, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.10. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.39, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.50.
The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading Higher, Ahead Of API’s Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 1.02% against the USD and closed at USD72.25 per barrel after Saudi Arabia and Russia declined to announce an immediate increase in production despite calls by the US President, Donald Trump for action to raise global supply.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 72.34, with oil trading 0.12% higher against the USD from yesterday's close, amid looming US sanctions against Iran.
The pair is expected to find support at 71.63, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 70.91. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 72.89, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 73.45.
Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2925; (P) 1.2940; (R1) 1.2972; More...
Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral with focus on 1.2975 minor resistance. For now, we're holding on to the bullish view that larger rise from 1.2061 is still in progress. On the upside, above 1.2975 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.3063 first. Break will target 1.3225 key near term resistance. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 will dampen our view and target 50% retracement at 1.2723 next.
In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level. As long as it holds, rise from 2017 low at 1.2061 is still in progress. Break of 1.3384 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2015 high) to 1.2061 (2017 low) at 1.3685. However, sustained break of 1.2879 will dampen his bullish view and turn focus back to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7240; (P) 0.7261; (R1) 0.7272; More...
At this point, AUD/USD is staying above 0.7228 resistance turned support and intraday bias remains neutral first. Above 0.7303 will extend the corrective rebound form 0.7804. But upside should be limited below 0.7361 resistance to complete the correction and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.7228 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7143 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall from 0.8135 through 0.7084 low. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We'll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1708; (P) 1.1762; (R1) 1.1800; More.....
Despite spiking higher to 1.1814, EUR/USD quickly retreated back to range. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. At this point, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Break of 1.1723 minor support will suggest rejection by 1.1779 and would be in line with our original view. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1525 support. However, sustained break of 1.1779 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1300 to 1.1733 from 1.1525 at 1.1958.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we'd expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3064; (P) 1.3116; (R1) 1.3168; More...
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Risk stays on the downside as long as 1.3297 resistance holds. The corrective rise from 1.2661 could have completed at 1.3297, ahead of 1.3316 key fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.3042 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to 1.2784. Break there will argue that larger down trend from 1.4376 is resuming for a new low below 1.2661.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.54; (P) 112.68; (R1) 112.96; More...
USD/JPY's rally resumes after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the upside for 113.17 resistance. Decisive break there will resume whole rally from 104.62 and target 114.73 resistance next. On the downside, below 112.39 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 111.82 resistance turned support holds.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9602; (P) 0.9627; (R1) 0.9674; More...
USD/CHF's strong rise today and break of 0.9651 support turned resistance indicates short term bottoming at 0.9541, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.9757 resistance first. Firm break there will target 0.9866 key resistance level, 61.8% retracement of 1.0067 to 0.9541 at 0.9866. On the downside, below 0.9604 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9541 low instead.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and possibly below. But for now, we don't expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggest that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.
















