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USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9634; (P) 0.9667; (R1) 0.9708; More...
At this point, USD/CHF is still kept in range below 0.9757 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, even in case of another fall, downside will likely be contained by 0.9523 fibonacci level to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9757 will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has formed a short term bottom. In such case, further rise would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 0.9804).
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 low has completed at 1.0067, after failing to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. Fall from 1.0067 could extend to 61.8% retracement of 0.9816 to 1.0067 at 0.9523 and below. But for now, we don't expect a break of 0.9186 low. On the upside, firm break of 0.9866 support turned resistance will suggests that fall from 1.0067 has completed and rise from 0.9186 is resuming.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.16; (P) 112.30; (R1) 112.45; More...
Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with a temporary top in place at 112.44, after hitting 100% projection of 109.76 to 111.82 from 110.37 at 112.43. As long as 111.65 minor support holds, further rise is expected. Above 112.44 will target a test on 113.17 high. Break will resume larger rally from 104.62 to 114.73 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 111.65 will dampen the immediate bullish outlook and turn bias back to the downside instead.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.
Euro Reverses Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.08% against the USD and closed at 1.1670.
Macroeconomic data showed that the Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted construction output rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, in July. In the preceding month, construction output had recorded a revised rise of 0.7%.
In the US, data indicated that housing starts climbed to a 3-month high level of 9.2%, on a monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1282.0K in August, and compared to a revised level of 1174.0K in the prior month, while market participants had anticipated the housing starts to climb to a level of 1238.0K. Moreover, US MBA mortgage applications rebounded 1.6% on a weekly basis in the week ended 14 September 2018, after registering a drop of 1.8% in the previous week.
On the other hand, the nation’s building permits surprisingly eased 5.7%, on a monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1229.0K in August, marking its largest fall since February 2017 and defying market expectations for a gain of 1310.0K. In the prior month, building permits had registered a revised level of 1303.0K.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1684, with the EUR trading 0.12% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.1651, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1618. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1716, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1748.
Going ahead, investors will await the Euro-zone’s consumer confidence data for September, set to release later in the day. Also, the US existing home sales for August and Philadelphia Fed business outlook for September along with initial jobless claims will garner significant amount of trader’s attention.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Britain’s Inflation Surprisingly Advanced To A Six-Month High Level In August
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.17% against the USD and closed at 1.3142.
On the data front, UK's consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly climbed to a six-month high of 2.7% on a yearly basis in August, defying market consensus for a reading of 2.4%. In the prior month, the CPI had advanced 2.5%. Meanwhile, the nation's retail price index rose 0.9% to a level of 284.2 on a monthly basis in August, higher than market expectations to record a reading of 283.4. The index had registered a reading of 281.7 in the previous month. Additionally, the house price index jumped 3.1% on a yearly basis in July, rising at its slowest pace in five-years and overshooting market anticipation for a gain of 2.7%. In the preceding month, the index had recorded a revised rise of 3.2%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3149, with the GBP trading 0.05% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3094, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3038. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3210, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3270.
In absence of key economic releases in the UK today, traders would keep an eye on global macroeconomic releases for further direction.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Japanese Yen Extends Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 112.28.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 112.15, with the USD trading 0.12% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 112.01, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.87. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.37, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.59.
Moving ahead, investors would closely monitor Japan’s national consumer price index for August and Nikkei PMI manufacturing data for September, scheduled to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
SECO Upgraded Switzerland’s Economic Growth Forecast For 2018
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.37% against the CHF and closed at 0.9675.
Yesterday, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), in its quarterly economic forecasts report, raised Switzerland's 2018 growth outlook to its highest level since 2010 to 2.9% higher than its earlier projection in June. However, the agency cited concerns over escalating global risks like trade dispute between the US, Italy's anti-establishment government and Britain's departure from the European Union.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9670, with the USD trading 0.05% lower against the CHF from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9636, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9602. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9702, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9734.
Looking forward, investors would keep an eye on the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) interest rate decision for September followed by trade balance data for August, both slated to release in a while.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Loonie Trading A Tad Higher In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.39% against the CAD and closed at 1.2921.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2917, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2874, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2830. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2987, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3056.
Amid lack of economic releases in Canada today, traders would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Aussie Trading Flat In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.48% against the USD and closed at 0.7263.
LME Copper prices rose 0.9% or $54.0/MT to $6057.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.5% or $31.0/MT to $1981.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7263, with the AUD trading flat against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7227, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7191. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7287, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7311.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Gold: Yellow Metal Trading Higher This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.39% against the USD and closed at USD1208.40 per ounce, as a weaker US Dollar boosted the demand appeal for the precious metal.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at USD1211.1 per ounce, with gold trading 0.22% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1205.70, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1200.30. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1213.90, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1216.70.
The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Silver: White Metal Extents Its Gains In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.49% against the USD and closed at USD14.27 per ounce, tracking rise in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 14.37, with silver trading 0.67% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 14.24, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.11. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.44, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.51.
The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.












