Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0425; (P) 1.0456; (R1) 1.0477; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook as consolidation from 1.0176 is still extending. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Stronger rebound might be seen but outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 holds. On the downside, break of 1.0176 will resume whole fall from 1.1213. However, decisive break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.

In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. However, reversal from 1.0199 will argue that price actions from 1.1274 are merely a corrective pattern, and has already completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9006; (P) 0.9024; (R1) 0.9051; More…

No change in USD/CHF's outlook as consolidation from 0.9200 is still extending. While deeper pull back might be seen, outlook will stay mildly bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 holds. On the upside, firm break of 0.9223 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained break of 0.8884 will indicate bearish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8690 instead.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.47; (P) 151.84; (R1) 152.45; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Attention remains on 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.4. Strong rebound from there will maintain near term bullishness. On the upside, break of 154.79 will revive the case that correction from 158.86 has completed at 150.29. Further rise should be seen to retest 158.86 high. However, break of 150.92 and sustained trading below 151.49 will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 148.64 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2587; (P) 1.2609; (R1) 1.2637; More...

GBP/USD dips mildly today but stays in established tight range. Intraday bias remains neutral, and focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609. Rejection by this level will keep near term outlook bearish. Break of 1.2331 support will suggest that the rebound from 1.2099 has completed as a correction, and bring retest of 1.2099 low. However, firm break of 1.2609 will raise the chance of near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

The forex markets remain rather indecisive today. Traders are paring back expectations for BoE rate cuts after UK inflation surged to a 10-month high. A March rate cut is now off the table, and markets are no longer fully pricing in two BoE cuts this year. However, this shift has provided only minimal support for the British pound, as broader market sentiment remains cautious.

Meanwhile, Dollar is mildly firmer but lacks strong upside momentum. Traders are now focused on FOMC minutes, which are expected to reaffirm that Fed is in no rush to cut rates. Current Fed funds futures show a 55% probability that rates will remain at 4.25-4.50% through the first half of 2025, a view that is unlikely to change much without further clarity on President Donald Trump’s fiscal and trade policies.

In the commodities market, Gold surged to a record high, approaching the critical 3000 psychological level for another attempt. This marks a key inflection point—a decisive break above 3,000 could pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1810.26 to 2789.92 from 2584.24 at 3189.66.

However, failure to sustain gains above 3000 could lead to deeper pullback. Firm break 2876.93 support should set up correction back towards 2789.92 resistance turned support instead.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.61%. DAX is down -1.16%. CAC is down -0.84%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.0696 at 4.629. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.058 at 2.558. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.27%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.14%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.81%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0038 to 1.440.

ECB’s Schnabel: Rate Cut Pause May Be Approaching

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel suggested in an FT interview that the central bank is approaching a point where it “may have to pause or halt” rate cuts.

While she refrained from making a firm prediction for upcoming policy meetings, she acknowledged that the ECB needs to “start that discussion”.

Schnabel highlighted that the degree of monetary restriction "has come down significantly", to the extent that policymakers can “no longer say with confidence” that ECB’s stance remains restrictive.

She defended the ECB’s gradual and cautious approach, arguing that domestic inflation remains high, wage growth is still elevated, and energy price shocks continue to impact inflation expectations.

ECB's Panetta: Eurozone economic weakness more persistent than expected

Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta acknowledged that economic weakness in the Eurozone is proving “more persistent than we expected”, as the long-anticipated consumption-driven recovery has yet to materialize.

After two consecutive quarters of stagnation, he noted that "tensions in the manufacturing sector, employment is giving signs of weakening"

Panetta also highlighted the downside risks to inflation stemming from weak growth. However, he also noted that upside inflation risks remain, primarily from energy costs.

UK CPI surges to 3.0%, highest since March 2024

UK headline CPI accelerated to 3.0% yoy in January, up from 2.5% yoy and exceeding market expectations of 2.8% yoy. This marks the highest inflation level since March 2024, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain persistent.

Core inflation also surged, with CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco rising to 3.7% yoy, up from 3.2% yoy in December.

Meanwhile, CPI goods inflation edged higher from 0.7% yoy to 1.0% yoy, while CPI services inflation climbed from 4.4% yoy to 5.0% yoy.

RBNZ cuts by 50bps, signals further easing through 2025

RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50bps to 3.75%, as widely expected, while maintaining a clear easing bias.

The central bank stated that "if economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025." According to the latest projections, the OCR is expected to decline to 3.1% by year-end and remain at that level until early 2028.

RBNZ acknowledged that economic activity remains subdued, though it expects growth to recover in 2025, driven by lower interest rates encouraging spending. However, elevated global economic uncertainty is likely to weigh on business investment. The bank also noted that inflation is expected to be volatile in the near term, influenced by a weaker exchange rate and higher petrol prices.

Regarding global risks, the RBNZ flagged concerns and warned that higher global tariffs could slow growth in key trading partners, dampening demand for New Zealand exports and weakening domestic economic momentum over the medium term.

However, the impact on inflation is "ambiguous", depending on factors such as trade diversion, supply-chain adjustments, and financial market reactions.

Australian wages growth slow 0.7% qoq, pressures easing

Australia’s wage price index rose 0.7% qoq in Q4, marking a slowdown from 0.9% qoq and missing expectations of 0.8% qoq. This matches the lowest quarterly growth since March 2022, reinforcing signs that wage pressures are easing, albeit still elevated.

On an annual basis, wages increased 3.2% yoy, making it the slowest pace since Q3 2022. Private sector wage growth came in at 3.3% yoy, the weakest since Q2 2022. Public sector wages rose 2.8% yoy, falling below 3% for the first time since Q2 2023.

BoJ’s Takata: Gradual policy shifts should continue beyond January hike

BoJ Board Member Hajime Takata emphasized the need for the central bank to continue to "implement gear shifts gradually, even after the additional rate hike decided in January 2025", to mitigate the risk of rising prices and financial market overheating.

Takata noted in a speech today that as "positive corporate behavior" persists, BoJ should consider a “further gear shift” in policy.

He highlighted three key risks that could drive prices above BoJ’s baseline scenario: a stronger wage-price cycle, inflationary pressures from domestic factors, and market volatility, especially in the exchange rates, stemming from a recovery in the US economy.

Nevertheless, due to uncertainties surrounding the US economy and the challenge of identifying the neutral interest rate, Takata advocated for a “vigilant approach”.

Japan’s trade deficit widens as imports surge, exports to China drop

Japan’s trade deficit expanded sharply in January, reaching JPY -2.759T, the largest shortfall in two years, as imports surged 16.7% yoy, far exceeding the expected 9.3% yoy gain.

Meanwhile, exports rose 7.2% yoy, falling slightly short of the 7.7% yoy forecast, with strong shipments to the U.S. (+18.1% yoy) offset by a -6.2% yoy decline in exports to China.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports declined -2.0% mom to JPY 9.253T, while imports climbed 4.7% mom to JPY 10.109T, leading to a JPY -857B trade deficit.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2587; (P) 1.2609; (R1) 1.2637; More...

GBP/USD dips mildly today but stays in established tight range. Intraday bias remains neutral, and focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609. Rejection by this level will keep near term outlook bearish. Break of 1.2331 support will suggest that the rebound from 1.2099 has completed as a correction, and bring retest of 1.2099 low. However, firm break of 1.2609 will raise the chance of near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) should have already completed at 1.3433 (2024 high), and the trend has reversed. Further fall is now expected as long as 1.2810 resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3433 at 1.1528, even as a corrective move. However, firm break of 1.2810 will dampen this bearish view and bring retest of 1.3433 high instead.

The British pound continues to have an uneventful week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2595, down 0.13% on the day.

UK inflation hits 3% in January

Consumer inflation in the UK rose to 3% y/y in January, a sharp rise from the 2.5% gain in December and higher than the market estimate of 2.8%. This was the highest level since March 2024 and was driven by price increases in transportation, fuel and food. Monthly, CPI decreased by 0.1%, following a 0.4% gain in December and above the market estimate of -0.3%.

It was a similar story for core CPI, which rose to 3.7% y/y from 3.2% in December, in line with expectations and its fastest pace since April 2024. Monthly, core CPI decreased 0.4%, down from a 0.3% gain in December but above the market estimate of -0.3%. Services inflation, which has been stubbornly high is carefully monitored by the Bank of England, rose to 5% from 4.4% but was below the Bank of England’s forecast of 5.2%.

The jump in headline and core inflation along with strong wage growth data earlier in this week will be a major headache for the BoE. Inflation is likely to accelerate, with an increase in employer taxes kicking in on April 1. The BoE meets next on March 20 and is unlikely to deliver a second straight rate cut. Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that the UK economy remains “quite static” and the BoE wants to continue lowering rates in order to boost the flagging economy, but containing inflation remains the central bank’s number one priority.

The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the Jan. 29 in which the Fed maintained the benchmark rate. At the meeting, members reiterated that the Fed would remain patient in its rate path and make decisions based on the data.

GBP/USD Technical

• GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.2609 and is testing support at 1.2587. Below, there is support at 1.2559
• 1.2637 and 1.2659 are the next resistance lines

Gold remains steady at 2,930 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, hovering near last week’s record high of 2,940 USD. Ongoing concerns over US trade tariffs and global uncertainties continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets.

Key factors driving Gold prices

1. Escalating US trade tensions – On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on automobiles, further escalating global trade disputes. Additional tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have also been proposed, intensifying market concerns. Last week, Trump suggested these auto tariffs could take effect by 2 April.
2. US foreign policy shifts – Reports indicate that the White House may be considering lifting sanctions on Russia as part of diplomatic negotiations, adding to global market uncertainty.
3. Federal Reserve’s cautious stance – San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated that inflation remains uneven, supporting the Fed’s view that interest rates should remain unchanged for now. This aligns with the Fed’s earlier signals of maintaining a tight monetary policy, which could keep long-term inflation risks alive, indirectly supporting Gold prices.
4. Increased bullion demand – Gold shipments from Singapore to the US surged to a three-year high in January, indicating potential disruptions in bullion trading due to price differentials. This signals strong demand and market inefficiencies, contributing to rising gold prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD 

On the H4 chart, Gold has formed a consolidation range around 2,911 USD, extending its gains to 2,939 USD. A short-term pullback to 2,911 USD (testing support from above) is possible before the next rally. If Gold breaks higher, the next target will be 2,960 USD. After reaching this level, a correction towards 2,844 USD could follow. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and sharply upwards, confirming strong bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, Gold is forming a growth wave towards 2,946 USD. After reaching this level, a minor correction to 2,911 USD could occur before a new bullish wave extends towards 2,960 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending towards 20, indicating a potential correction before the next leg higher. A subsequent rebound towards 80 would confirm further upside potential.

Conclusion

Gold maintains a firmly bullish outlook, supported by geopolitical risks, trade war concerns, and strong demand. While short-term corrections are likely, technical indicators support a continued rally towards 2,960 USD. Traders will closely monitor further developments in US trade policy and Fed monetary signals, as these will shape the next move in Gold prices.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel suggested in an FT interview that the central bank is approaching a point where it “may have to pause or halt” rate cuts.

While she refrained from making a firm prediction for upcoming policy meetings, she acknowledged that the ECB needs to “start that discussion”.

Schnabel highlighted that the degree of monetary restriction "has come down significantly", to the extent that policymakers can “no longer say with confidence” that ECB’s stance remains restrictive.

She defended the ECB’s gradual and cautious approach, arguing that domestic inflation remains high, wage growth is still elevated, and energy price shocks continue to impact inflation expectations.

Full interview of ECB's Schnabel here.

The New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5721 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day.

RBNZ chops rates by 50 bps as expected

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed the cash rate by 50 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 3.75%. The markets had priced in the cut at 90% so there was no surprise at the jumbo cut. This lowered the cash rate to its lowest level since Nov. 2o22. The RBNZ demonstrated again that it can be aggressive, as it has cut rates by 175 basis points since the easing cycle started last August.

The New Zealand dollar is stronger on Wednesday, which is somewhat surprising, given the jumbo rate cut and the RBNZ’s signal that further rate cuts are on the way in the coming months.

The rate statement noted that the members were confident lowering rates as CPI remained near the midpoint of the 1%-3% target band. At the same time, members expressed concern that economic activity in New Zealand and abroad were “subdued” which posed a risk to economic growth.

The statement also made a brief mention of “trade restrictions” which could dampen economic growth. No mention was made of US President Trump’s tariff threats but policymakers are clearly concerned that US tariffs, even if not aimed directly at New Zealand, could chill the global economy and hurt the country’s key export sector.

In a follow-up press conference, Governor Adrian Orr said that the Bank expected to lower the cash rate to 3% by the end of the year. This forecast was lower than the November projection of 3.2% by year’s end. The central bank is expected to deliver smaller rate cuts of 25-bps in the coming months.

NZD/USD Technical

• NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.5713. Above, there is resistance at 0.5731
• 0.5686 and 0.5668 and the next support levels

• USD/JPY stuck within 151.50-152.20 area.
• Technical signals suggest bearish risks are alive.

USD/JPY has been treading water in a tight range this week, holding between the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 152.20 and the 151.50 support level after a sharp drop from the 154.30 resistance zone. The outlook remains fragile, with technical indicators signaling further downside risks.

At the moment, there’s little to get excited about from a technical perspective. The price has dipped below the Ichimoku cloud, and the 20- and 50-day EMAs are locked in a bearish crossover, endorsing the negative trajectory in the market. Additionally, the RSI remains clearly below its 50 neutral mark, while the stochastic oscillator is edging into oversold territory - both indicating that selling pressures could persist in the near term.

If the 151.50 level gives way – aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September-January rally - the pair could quickly test the next line of defense around 150.50. Should that also fail to hold, the 149.00-149.50 area, where the pair staged a strong rebound in December, could become the next battleground. A break below this zone would open the door to a steeper drop towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 148.00.

On the flip side, a successful break above the 200-day EMA could re-challenge the resistance area of 153.30-154.30. This area is packed with obstacles, including the 20- and 50-day EMAs, the Ichimoku cloud’s lower band, the 23.6% Fibonacci level, and a downward-sloping trendline from January’s peak. Hence, a decisive close above this zone could reignite buying interest, propelling the pair to the next barrier near 156.40. Any further upside would face a tougher battle around the broken support trendline near 157.40.

In summary, USDJPY continues to have a bearish lean in the short term. If resistance around 152.20 holds firm, a resumption of the downtrend is likely. A move below 145.00 would signal a deeper, more sustained bearish reversal in the medium-term outlook.