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Aussie Extends Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.50% against the USD and closed at 0.7427.
LME Copper prices declined 1.2% or $75.0/MT to $6308.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.2% or $5.0/MT to $2140.5/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7420, with the AUD trading 0.09% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
Overnight data showed that, Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence index increased by 3.9% to a level of 106.1 on monthly basis in June, compared to a level of 102.1 in the prior month.
Additionally, seasonally adjusted home loan approvals unexpectedly rose 1.1% on a monthly basis in May, compared to a revised drop of 0.9% in the previous month.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7390, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7360. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7467, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7514.
Going ahead, investors would await Australia’s consumer inflation expectations for July, scheduled to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Gold: Yellow Metal Extends Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.18% against the USD and closed at USD1256.60 per ounce, as strength in US dollar, dented demand for the safe haven asset.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1251.70, with gold trading 0.39% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1246.03, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1240.37. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1259.03, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1266.37.
The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Silver: White Metal Trading Lower In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.53% against the USD and closed at USD16.07 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 15.97, with silver trading 0.59% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 15.86, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.75. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.13, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.29.
The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Crude Oil: Crude Oil Trading Lower, Ahead Of EIA’s Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil remained flat against the USD and closed at USD74.00 per barrel.
Separately, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories fell 6.8 million barrels to 410.1 million barrels in the week ended 06 July 2018.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 73.56, with oil trading 0.59% lower against the USD from yesterday's close, after US President Donald Trump raised threats of imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods.
The pair is expected to find support at 72.92, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 72.28. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 74.45, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 75.34.
Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1700; (P) 1.1735 (R1) 1.1779; More.....
For now, EUR/USD is staying in tight range of 1.1679/1790 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, break of 1.1679 will indicate that corrective rise from 1.1507 has completed. Intraday bias should then be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1507. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 1.2555. Above 1.790 will extend the corrective rice. But upside be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring reversal.
In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3221; (P) 1.3275; (R1) 1.3325; More...
GBP/USD is staying in tight range of 1.3189/3362 and intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.3189 minor support should confirm that corrective rise from 1.3048 has completed at 1.3362. And intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.3048 first. Break will resume larger fall from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next. In case of another rise through 1.3362, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.3471 to limit upside to finish the corrective rebound.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. We'll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3048 at 1.3555 is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9896; (P) 0.9929; (R1) 0.9953; More...
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it stays bounded in range of 0.9855/9991. On the downside, break of 0.9855 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.0056 with another fall to 0.9787 and below. Nonetheless, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 0.9991 will target a test on 1.0056 high.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. Above 1.0056 will target 1.0342 (2016 high). In that case, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.78; (P) 111.07; (R1) 111.33; More...
USD/JPY fails to break 111.39 resistance so far despite rally attempt and retreated. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 111.39 will resume whole rally from 104.62 low. That will also add credence to the case of medium term reversal and target 114.73 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 110.34 will indicate near term reversal. And, the consolidation pattern from 111.39 would then start the third leg for 108.10 again before completion.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we're slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3092; (P) 1.3119; (R1) 1.3139; More...
USD/CAD's recovery is limited below 1.3159 minor resistance so far and intraday bias stays neutral. For now, we continue to expect strong around 1.3067 resistance turned support to complete the correction from 1.3385 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3159 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3385. However, firm break of 1.3067 will bring deeper fall to channel support (now at 1.2838).
In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2838) holds, we'll holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7433; (P) 0.7458; (R1) 0.7487; More...
AUD/USD's decline and break of 0.7414 minor support suggests that the corrective recovery from 0.7309 has completed at 0.7483. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.7309 low. Decisive break of f 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the larger fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next. On the upside, above 0.7483 will bring another recovery through 55 day EMA (now at 0.7503). But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
















