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USD/JPY Bearish ABC Zigzag Retests 110 Resistance
The USD/JPY bearish momentum is probably a wave A (blue), which is part of larger ABC zigzag. A bullish break above the resistance trend lines could indicate that the bearish wave A (blue) is completed and that price will retrace as part of a bullish ABC correction within wave B (blue). In that case the Fibonacci levels of wave B could act as a potential resistance spots for a bearish turn.
The USD/JPY is building a corrective triangle pattern. A break below the support trend line (green) could indicate an expanded 5th wave within wave A (blue) whereas a break above the resistance trend lines (orange) would increase the chances of a wave C.
EUR/USD At Resistance Line Within Falling Wedge Reversal Pattern
The EUR/USD is building a falling wedge reversal chart pattern, which could indicate a potential bullish reversal if price manages to break above the resistance trend line and zone.
The EUR/USD is at new bounce or break spot. A bullish breakout could indicate the start of a larger wave 4 (pink) correction whereas a bearish bounce could indicate the continuation of the downtrend.
The EUR/USD seems to have completed 5 bearish waves (green) which could also indicate the end of wave 5 within wave 3 (pink). A retracement could see price move up towards the Fib levels of wave 4 but price could also bounce at the current resistance and continue lower towards Fib targets of wave 5. This will depend on the candlestick patterns that appear at resistance.
GBP/USD Bullish Retracement Faces Solid Resistance Zone At 1.3350
The GBP/USDdowntrend is now approaching a new quarter level at 1.3250 which is a potentially strong support zone and a new bounce or break spot.
A bearish break below 1.3250 would probably change the current wave pattern and make it more likely that the current bearish momentum is a wave 3 rather than a wave 5. A bullish bounce and more importantly bullish breakout above the resistance trend lines (orange) could indicate a larger retracement.
The GBP/USD ending diagonal is valid as long as the wave 5 (green) is not longer than the wave 3, which means that price should not break much below 1.3250 support. Price is now moving back towards the Fibonacci levels of wave B which could as a resistance spot.
In an ending diagonal, the 5 waves (green) are composed of a 3 wave ABC pattern in each wave. The wave 5 (green) should be the shortest wave of all 5 waves and therefore a break below the 100% Fibonacci target of wave 5 (green) invalidates the ending diagonal wave pattern
XAUUSD Intraday Analysis
XAUUSD (1298.75): Gold prices stalled the gains after price action hit the resistance level of 1304 - 1301 level. The consolidation at this place will see gold prices retesting the breached support level of resistance. A lower close off this level could trigger the downtrend being resumed. However, with the bottom being formed at 1282 handle, we expect to see the declines limited to this level. In the near term, gold prices could be seen posting a sideways movement unless we see a clear breakout above 1304 - 1301 resistance level. In this case, gold prices could be attempting to test the resistance at 1325.
USDJPY Intraday Analysis
USDJPY (109.40): The Japanese yen was seen strengthening sharply on Friday with price action turning quite volatile below the 109.57 - 109.43 handle of resistance. This consolidation is expected to continue. However, an upside breakout out could trigger a possible retracement toward the 110.85 level of resistance. To the downside, the USDJPY could be seen targeting the lower support at 108.90 price level where support is most likely to be established.
EURUSD Intraday Analysis
EURUSD (1.1718): The EURUSD currency pair extended strong losses on Friday as price action broke past the 1.1672 handle. However, with price closing around 1.1649, a rebound off this level is expected. In the near term, we expect the EURUSD to consolidate within 1.1730 and 1.1650 region ahead of a potential retracement in prices. Further declines in price action could send the common currency lower, targeting 1.1500 handle.On the 4-hour chart, price action continues to post steep losses which could trigger a strong pullback in the near term. Above 1.1730, the EURUSD could be seen testing the resistance level at 1.1846 - 1.1824
Investors Cautious Amid Risks Global Risks
The markets were seen trading on the back foot on Friday amid an array of rising global political risks. Investors were seen facing risks from the proposed U.S. and North Korea talks that President Trump called off.While in Italy, the newly formed populist government brought a more cautious note to the markets.The Corruption scandal from Spain was another factor that added to the common currency’s woes.
On the economic front, data on Friday saw the release of second revised GDP estimates. Data showed that the UK's economy grew at a pace of 0.1% in the first quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimates. In the U.S. core durable goods orders rose 0.9% on the month beating estimates of a 0.5% increase. However, headline durable goods orders fell 1.7% on the month which was more than expected.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar is quiet today with the UK and the U.S. markets closed. Data from the Eurozone is sparse and we expect trading to also reflect the slow day in the markets.
With the upcoming NFP this Friday most currency pairs will be affected! Register for our LIVE non-farm payrolls webinar, this Friday, to experience technical analysis first hand!
EURO Intraday Bearis Below 1.1717
The euro currency remains under downside pressure against the US dollar, after closing the former trading week well below the 1.1700 level as the greenback firmed across the board. The EUR/USD pair has moved back above the 1.1700 technical level, amidst quiet Bank Holiday trading conditions. Euro traders remain focused on the economic and political situation in Italy, and intraday movements in the US dollar index.
The EURUSD pair remains strongly bearish while trading below the 1.1717 level. Key support technical support is now found at the 1.1675 and 1.1645 levels.
Should the EURUSD pair move above the 1.1700 level, we may see a near-term technical correction back towards the 1.1750 and 1.1800 levels.
GBPUSD Strongly Bearish Below 1.3355 Level
The British pound continues to trade to the downside against the US dollar, after breaching a series of key technical support levels on Friday. The GBPUSD pair currently trades around the 1.3325 level and remains under heavy pressure after closing the former trading week below the key 1.3300 level. Traders will look for further weakness below the 1.3300 level, while watching the key 94 level on the US dollar index.
The GBPUSD pair is strongly bearish while trading below the 1.3355 level, key intraday support is located at the 1.3300 and 1.3258 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3355 level, buyers may try to push price towards the 1.3380 and 1.3400 resistance levels.
US Memorial Day Makes For Quiet Monday Session
All is quiet on the data front Monday, as traders in the United States pause for Memorial Day. Globally, reporting will be limited with only a few data sets scheduled.
The Swiss government will kick things off with a report on overall employment levels at 07:15 GMT. The data set is expected to show overall employment of 4.999 million in the Swiss economy during the first quarter, up from 4.962 million in the October-December period. The jobs data could have a direct impact on the performance of the Swiss franc.
About 45 minutes later, the Italian government will report on producer inflation for the month of April. The producer price index (PPI) captures prices paid at the factory-gate level, which may impact consumer prices in the future. Analysts have not yet provided a median estimate on Italy's monthly PPI. In March, the index rose 0.4% month-on-month. That translated into an annualized rate of 2%.
Japanese employment data is also scheduled for late Monday GMT time. Unemployment in the world's third largest economy likely held steady at 2.5% for April, according to a median estimate.
The economic calendar picks up on Wednesday and continues strong for the latter half of the week, culminating in US nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The US jobs report is arguably the most closely watched data set of the month. May nonfarm payrolls are expected to show the creation of 185,000 jobs, up from 164,000 the previous month.
In terms of monetary policy, the Bank of Canada (BOC) is scheduled to deliver an interest rate verdict on Thursday. No change to the benchmark interest rate is expected at this time.
EUR/USD
Europe's common currency extended its breakdown at the end of last week, as prices fell to their lowest levels since December. EUR/USD was down another 0.3% at the start of Asian trade, with the pair hovering around 1.1684. The bearish trend remains intact now that the euro has moved below a series of technical supports. EUR/USD is now eyeing major support around 1.1553, which is the low from November.
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar sank with oil prices on Friday, a worrisome trend for traders holding short bets on USD/CAD. The pair added as many as 100 pips Friday before consolidating around 1.2970. The psychological 1.3000 threshold is the next target for the bulls.
USD/JPY
Geopolitical risks boosted the Japanese yen last week, and in the process drove the USD/JPY cross sharply lower. However, the easing of geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula may work in favor of riskier assets, thereby diminishing the yen's standing. USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.65. Investors should pay close attention to the market's reaction to political developments over the weekend.














