Sample Category Title

During the first part of Thursday's trading session, the Sterling managed to maintain its upward movement which started mid-Wednesday. Further advance above the 1.3416 mark was restricted by the 100-hour SMA and the weekly S1. This strong resistance pressured the rate slightly lower along the 55-hour moving average.

In line with technical indicators, the Pound should resume its decline in this session, thus approaching the six-month low of 1.3310. This session, however, is full of important fundamentals that could change the market sentiment in favour of bulls.

In case of strong upside momentum, the rate should target the weekly PP at 1.3520; the 200-hour SMA is located at 1.3455. Meanwhile, a fall below the 1.33 level is not expected today.

The US Dollar continues to trade in a descending channel against the Japanese Yen for the third consecutive session. Despite some fluctuations yesterday, the pair had returned at its Thursday opening level by this morning.

It is likely that the pair tries to move above the 55-hour SMA at 109.80 today. This area, however, is expected to hinder or even halt the pair, as it is likewise reinforced by the 100-period SMA on the 4H chart. In case this level is surpassed, the following resistance is formed by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP at 110.35.

The bearish scenario should likewise be considered. In case no fundamental events introduce volatility in the market, the Greenback should remain trading along the 55-hour SMA. This line would push the pair lower but without breaching the psychological 108.00 level.

As previously expected, the 200-hour SMA and the upper boundary of the short-term wedge surrendered mid-Thursday, driven by strong two-hour surge until the 1,305.00 mark. Further advance did not follow, as the pair was restricted by the 200-day and 100-period (4H) SMAs.

Meanwhile, the Asian session started with slight weakening, as bulls lacked the necessary momentum to dash through the aforementioned moving averages. Thus, it is likely that this bullish sentiment allays in this session, thus resulting in a test of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs near 1,294.00/1,298.00. This area is expected to hold firm.

In terms of the upside potential, Gold should reach the 1,310.00 area where the upper boundary of a seven-week channel is located.

German Ifo business climate rose to 102.2 in May, up from 102.1 and beat expectation of 102.0.

Expectations gauge dropped to 98.5, down fro 98.7, met consensus.

Current assessment gauge rose to 106.0, up from 105.7, beat expectation of 105.5.

Ifo President Clemens Fuest noted in the release that "the declining trend in the ifo Business Climate has stopped. The index held steady at 102.2 points (The April value was seasonally corrected.), after having fallen five months in succession. The very good current business situation improved slightly, but the optimistic expectations weakened slightly. The German economy is performing well in a difficult international situation. The current business survey and other indicators point to economic growth of 0.4 percent in the second quarter."

Full release here.

Euro recovers mildly after the release.

The British Pound strengthened against the Greenback, following the UK Retail Sales data release on Thursday. The GBP/USD currency pair gained 24 pips, or 0.18%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.3395 area.

The Office for National Statistics released All Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 1.6%, compared to the negative 1.2% in the previous period, moreover doubling the expectations of 0.8% for the month of April.

Retail sellers enjoyed April's jump in sales, which was the biggest in the last 18 months. Petrol, food and fashion clothing sales bounced and pushed sales volumes up as the previous "beast from east" fell off the cliff.

The Euro holds in red in early trading on Friday and probes through 1.17 handle as dollar firmed despite US – North Korea tensions.

Bears are taking a breather above weekly cloud top (1.1675) which was tested on Wednesday and may stay in extended consolidation on Friday’s close above weekly cloud.

Bullishly aligned momentum and oversold RSI/slow stochastic support the notion and partially offset pressure from daily MA’s in strong bearish configuration. Bearish scenario on break and close below weekly cloud top could risk fresh acceleration lower and expose strong support at 1.1553 (07 Nov 2017 trough).

Weekly close above cloud would generate initial basing signal and trigger profit taking on broader shorts.

Initial range is seen between weekly cloud top (1.1675) and falling 10SMA (1.1781) while break above 10SMA would signal stronger recovery.

German Ifo Business Climate is the key event in European session for the single currency (Apr f/c 102.7 vs 102.1 previous month) and could spark stronger action on surprise.

Res: 1.1726, 1.1750, 1.1781, 1.1807
Sup: 1.1690, 1.1675, 1.1650, 1.1600

XAUUSD (1302.77): Gold prices posted some modest gains as price action managed to touch the resistance level near 1304 - 1301 level. Price action is required to breakout above this resistance level in order to post further gains. The next main target to the upside will be at 1325 level. To the downside if price slip below the resistance, then we expect to see further consolidating taking place within 1304 - 1301 level and 1282 support

USDJPY (109.57): The USDJPY broke down below the support level of 109.57 - 109.43 as price action fell just a few pips above the next main support at 109.90. The rebound off this level saw prices retesting this support level which is likely to act as support. In the near term, we expect to see USDJPY most likely to decline back for a firm retest of support at 108.90. To the upside, in the event of a breakout above the support/resistance level, then we can expect further gains to push USDJPY back to 110.85 level of resistance.

EURUSD (1.1710): The EURUSD was trading within Wednesday's range as price action attempted to post intraday gains before pulling back lower. The EURUSD briefly tested 1.1730 level before easing back. The inside bar formation could trigger a near term breakout off Wednesday's highs and lows. On the 4-hour chart, price action continues to remain in a consolidation mode that is now shaping out into a descending wedge pattern. An upside breakout could trigger a move toward 1.1846 - 1.1824 level of resistance.

How do you think the EUR will progress? If you feel confident enough, why not open an account and trade?

The U.S. dollar was seen falling slightly on the day. Economic data showed the release of the German final GDP data for the first quarter. The quarterly pace of GDP was seen rising 0.3%, unchanged from the previous estimates.

Retail sales from the UK showed an increase of 1.6% on the month. This was higher than the forecast of 0.8%. The previous month's data was also revised to show a decline of 1.1% which was slightly better than the initial estimates.

The ECB released its meeting minutes which showed that officials were concerns that the slowdown would continue further than expected.

Economic data for the day will see the release of the second GDP estimates for the first quarter. Median forecasts estimate that the first quarter GDP remained unchanged at 0.1%. Later in the day, the U.S. trading session is expected to see the release of core durable goods orders. Forecasts point to a 0.5% increase. However, the headline durable goods orders are expected to fall 1.3%, declining almost half from the gains made in March.

The BoE Governor Mark Carney and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are expected to speak later in the day.