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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the CHF and closed at 0.9619 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9623, with the USD trading slightly higher against the CHF from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9602, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9582. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9641, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9660.

Ahead in the day, market participants would look forward to Switzerland’s producer & import prices data for March.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.13% against the CAD and closed at 1.2606 on Friday.

Macroeconomic data indicated that Canada's existing home sales rebounded 1.3% on a monthly basis, in March, after recording a drop of 6.5% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2609, with the USD trading 0.02% higher against the CAD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2568, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2527. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2634, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2659.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.62% against the USD and closed at USD1348.90 per ounce on Friday, amid a broad weakness in the greenback.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1350.00, with gold trading 0.08% higher against the USD from Friday’s close, after the US, Britain and France launched missile strikes on Syria.

The pair is expected to find support at 1339.87, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1329.73. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1355.77, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1361.53.

The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 1.03% against the USD and closed at USD16.64 per ounce on Friday, tracking gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.67, with silver trading 0.15% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 16.51, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.36. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.75, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.84.

The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.42% against the USD and closed at USD67.30 per barrel on Friday, after the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global crude oil stocks were falling sharply, and that OPEC and its allies are close to clearing a global supply glut. Also, the agency forecasted global oil demand to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2018.

Separately, Baker Hughes indicated that active oil rigs in the US rose by 7 to 815 in the week ended 13 April, hitting its highest since March 2015.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 66.80, with oil trading 0.74% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 66.37, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 65.95. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 67.49, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 68.19.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

STOCKS

On Friday, Dow (24360.14, -0.50%) and Dax (12442.40, +0.22%) both saw highs above immediate resistances on daily candles. As we mentioned before, a decisive break of resistance could lead to a decent upmove towards 25000 and 12800-12900 respectively. However, if the indices again come off from resistances, they could target 23250 (horizontal support for Dow) and 12167 (21 DMA for DAX) over the next 1-2 weeks.

Nikkei (21829.77, +0.23%) has just broken resistance in the downward channel on daily and 3 day candles and could move up towards the 21 week moving average near 22300 before coming off again from there.

Shanghai (3134, -0.79%) could test support in the 3125-3075 zone (seen on daily and 3 day candles) this week, after which it could bounce from those levels.

Nifty (10480.60, +0.21%) as per our expectation, saw a high of 10520 on Friday before closing lower near 10480. It could continue to stay below immediate resistance on daily candles near 10550 this week. There are 21 moving averages on 3 day and weekly line charts near 10440-10470, which could also act as decent resistance levels in the near term. Sensex (34192.65, +0.27%) could see some resistance from the 21 moving average on 3 day line chart near 34100. It is also near resistance on daily candles and could probably dip towards 34000-33750 this week.

COMMODITIES

Brent (71.93) and Nymex WTI (66.84) have come off slightly from highs near 73 and 67.5 respectively. We would have to see if geopolitical developments of Friday (USA announcing strikes on Syria) have some impact on crude markets this week. Overall, both Brent and WTI could slowly creep up towards 74 and 68 respectively and then come off from there.

Gold (1348.90) continues to stay below resistance near 1370 and should continue its ranging in the broad 1320-1370 zone this week as well.

Copper (3.0585) saw a sharp fall from levels near 3.15 last week and has even broken below support on daily candles. If this break sustains, it could move lower towards support on 3 day candles near 3.00. However it might also find some support at current levels from 13 and 21 day moving averages (near 3.05).

FOREX

Dollar index (89.74) is trading near levels of 89.7-89.8, seen on Thursday and Friday. It is likely to move down towards support on daily candles and weekly line chart near 89.25 this week. As mentioned on Friday as well, there are 13 and 21 moving average lines on the 3 day line chart which could provide some resistance at current levels and push it down. US Retail Sales data (due later today) could hold significance for the course of the Dollar Index this week.

Euro (1.2342) : After having dipped to support on 3 day candles near 1.23 late last week, Euro has stayed above this support as we had expected. It should now attempt another rise towards 1.24 (seen as immediate resistance on daily line chart). However, in case it dips now, the downside could again be restricted by support on daily candles near 1.2300-1.2275.
If Euro rises beyond 1.24-1.2425, it could then target previous highs near 1.26 (or max, go up to 1.28), from where a medium term correction could be possible. A straight rise past 1.26-1.28 would imply medium term bullishness for the Euro.

Dollar Yen (107.20) saw a high near 107.8 on Friday, thereby equaling its previous high seen in Feb end. As we had expected, it has come off from that high towards 107.20 currently. The 21 moving average on 3 day line chart is also near 107.36 and could push Dollar Yen down further. We might well see Dollar Yen breaking below 107 this week.

Euro Yen (132.31) has resistance near 132.5-133.0, being provided by 21 moving averages on 3 day and weekly line charts. It could range between 132.5-132.0 this week as the Dollar Yen could turn bearish, while the Euro stays below 1.24.

Pound(1.4262) saw a high near 1.43 on Friday and might re attempt a test of 1.43-1.435 this week (which is seen as interim resistance on 3 day lines and is also the previous high seen in Jan end). In the medium term, a breach of 1.430-1.435 could imply bullishness towards 1.46 (seen as resistance on weekly line chart).

Dollar Rupee (65.2075) - Dip this week might be limited to 65.15-10-05.

INTEREST RATES

US yields continue to stay elevated in their respective channels. We need to see if Friday’s announcement by the US of strikes on Syria would have any impact on yields. One way it could possibly affect yields is by making investors risk averse in the near term, thereby seeing flows from stocks to debt, thereby taking yields down. However, if the Retail Sales data later today complements the positivity created by the unemployment claims data last week (as well as the US Fed’s hawkishness), then we could see yields rise further.

US 10 Yr Yield (2.832%), 30 Yr (3.036%), 5 Yr (2.677%), 2 Yr (2.3648%):

The 10 Year yield continues to stay near resistance on short term chart near 2.84% and could see a dip soon from here.

The 30 yr is also near resistance at 3.04% on short term chart and should dip back towards 3% this week.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.10; (P) 107.43; (R1) 107.67; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with today's retreat. Further rise could be seen as long as 106.64 minor support intact. But 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12, remains crucial in determining the medium outlook. Break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Yen is making a come back in Asian session today. The reaction to the Syria strike was muted. But risk aversion comes back with selloff in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. Nikkei is maintaining slight gain of 0.25% at the time of writing. But China SSE and Hong Kong HSI are down -1.5% and -1.7% respectively. It's too early to conclude that the Japanese yen is reversing recent near term decline. But development in major Yen crosses is worth some attention. In particular, 106.64 in USD/JPY is key near term support level to watch.

Elsewhere in the currency markets, commodity currencies including AUD, NZD and CAD are turning a bit softer. But there could be surprises ahead with important events scheduled. Those events include BoC rate decision, Canada CPI and retail sales, Australia employment and RBA minutes, New Zealand CPI and China GDP.

Japan and China agreed to improve tie after first high-level meeting in eight years

The outcome of the first high-level economic talks in eight years between China and Japan appeared to be positive. Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Taro Kono and Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi met in Tokyo on Sunday. Both agreed to work on strengthening the relationship with more high level visits ahead.

Wang said that "I hope we can begin at a fresh starting point and discuss a new future, while promoting a new cooperative relationship. I want to have in-depth discussions on economic policies, cooperation on the belt and road initiative and further integration of East Asian countries."

Kono also said that "I hope to hold active discussions about regional and global economic issues. I would also like to take this opportunity to further strengthen economic relations between Japan and China."

Also more high-level visits were agreed, with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang go to Japan for a Japan-China-South Korea summit. And then Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will visit China while Chinese President Xi Jinping will also visit Japan.

Abe's support plunged further ahead of meeting with Trump

Separately, Abe will meet with US President Donald Trump at the latter's Mar-a Lago resort for two days this week starting Tuesday. Ahead of that, polls showed support for Abe continued to plunge. According to a poll by Nippon TV, support for Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dropped to 26.7%, hitting the lowest point after taking office back in December 2012. Another survey by Kydo news agency also showed Abe's supported from -5.4 points to 37%. Another poll by Asahi also showed Abe's support at only 31%.

Recent suspected scandals have clearly hurt Abe's popularity and raised doubts on whether can win a third term as PM as LDP leader in the September vote. Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi questioned whether Abe may "resign around the time parliament's session ends (on June 20)?", as quoted in weekly magazine Aera. Koizumi also said that "situation is getting dangerous".

Nieto, Trudeau and Pence pushing to reach NAFTA agreement within weeks

The push for having a symbolic NAFTA agreement during the the Summit of the Americas failed. But leaders from Mexico, Canada and the US agreed to expedite the efforts. Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, US Vice President Mike Pence and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met in Lima, Peru, on the sidelines of the Summit of the Americas.

After the meeting, Nieto said there were agreement to "accelerate" the efforts on NAFTA renegotiation. And he added "we hope in the coming weeks we can reach an agreement".

Trudeau also said "we'd like to see a re-negotiated deal land sooner than later." And, "we have a certain amount of pressure to try to move forward successfully in the coming weeks."

Pence also said he left the summit "very hopeful that we are very close to a renegotiated NAFTA", and "there is a real possibility that we could arrive at an agreement within the next several weeks."

It's believed that all parties would like to complete the deal by Mexican elections on July 1.

UK PM May to boost trade with Commonwealth family

The leaders of the 53 Commonwealth member states are meeting in the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting this week. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to make use of her speech at the business forum today to boost trade as Brexit looms.

Ahead of the meeting, May said in a statement that "our Commonwealth family already accounts for one-fifth of global trade." And "we must continue to work together to build further upon this solid foundation by building on our existing trade links and establishing new ones." May is set to unveil new programs to boost Commonwealth-wide support to women-owned businesses. There will also be new funding for a new Commonwealth Standards Network to establish a common language for goods and services.

Separately, a major push for a "people's vote" on the final Brexit deal was launched by MPS of different parties, celebrities and business leaders. The MPs included Conservative Anna Soubry, Labour's Chuka Umunna, the Greens' Caroline Lucas and Liberal Democrat Layla Moran.

An important week in terms of economic data

It's an important week ahead in terms of economic data, given the background that three major central banks could raise interest rates in Q2. Fed fund futures are now pricing in 100% chance of a Fed hike in June. Retail sales, housing, regional Fed surveys and Beige Book report are not expected to alter this.

BoE is one that's widely tipped to hike again in May. And the decision could very much depends on the CPI, employment and retail sales to be released this week.

BoC is generally expected to stand pat this week, given some slowdown in Q1. But still, BoC is expected to hike again the year as the NAFTA uncertainties are cleared, probably two more times. Speculation on the timing of the next move, though, will depends on this week's BoC statement, as well as Canada CPI and retail sales.

In addition that the above, China GDP, RBA minutes, Australia employment, New Zealand CPI, German ZEW will also be watched.

Here are some highlights for the week ahead:

• Monday: Swiss PPI; US retail sales, Empire state manufacturing index, business inventories, NAHB housing index
• Tuesday: China GDP, industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment; RBA minutes; UK employment; German ZEW; Canada manufacturing sales; US housing starts and building permits, industrial product
• Wednesday: Japan trade balance; UK CPI, PPI; Eurozone CPI; BoC rate decision; Fed's Beige book
• Thursday: New Zealand CPI; Australia employment; Eurozone current account; UK retail sales; US Philly Fed survey, jobless claims, leading indicators
• Friday: Japan CPI, tertiary industry index; Canada CPI, retail sales; Eurozone consumer confidence.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.10; (P) 107.43; (R1) 107.67; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral again with today's retreat. Further rise could be seen as long as 106.64 minor support intact. But 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 9 which is close to 108.12, remains crucial in determining the medium outlook. Break of 106.64, however, will indicate the rebound from 104.62 has completed. And in that case, bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 104.62.

In the bigger picture, as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds, the medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) should still continue lower, at least to retest 98.97 (2016 low). However, sustained break of 108.12 will be an early sign of medium term reversal. In that case, further rise would be seen to 114.73 resistance to confirm completion of the fall from 118.65.

Economic Indicators Update

The outcome of the first high-level economic talks in eight years between China and Japan appeared to be positive. Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Taro Kono and Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi met in Tokyo on Sunday. Both agreed to work on strengthening the relationship with more high level visits ahead.

Wang said that "I hope we can begin at a fresh starting point and discuss a new future, while promoting a new cooperative relationship. I want to have in-depth discussions on economic policies, cooperation on the belt and road initiative and further integration of East Asian countries."

Kono also said that "I hope to hold active discussions about regional and global economic issues. I would also like to take this opportunity to further strengthen economic relations between Japan and China."

Also more high-level visits were agreed, with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang go to Japan for a Japan-China-South Korea summit. And then Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will visit China while Chinese President Xi Jinping will also visit Japan.

Separately, Abe will meet with US President Donald Trump at the latter's Mar-a Lago resort for two days this week starting Tuesday.

The leaders of the 53 Commonwealth member states are meeting in the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting this week. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to make use of her speech at the business forum today to boost trade as Brexit looms.

Ahead of the meeting, May said in a statement that "our Commonwealth family already accounts for one-fifth of global trade." And "we must continue to work together to build further upon this solid foundation by building on our existing trade links and establishing new ones." May is set to unveil new programs to boost Commonwealth-wide support to women-owned businesses. There will also be new funding for a new Commonwealth Standards Network to establish a common language for goods and services.

Separately, a major push for a "people's vote" on the final Brexit deal was launched by MPS of different parties, celebrities and business leaders. The MPs included Conservative Anna Soubry, Labour's Chuka Umunna, the Greens' Caroline Lucas and Liberal Democrat Layla Moran.