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Cable holds bid in early Thursday’s trading and offsetting so far the risk of reversal, following Wednesday’s Doji with long upper shadow, which was formed after strong upside rejection of four-day rally at 1.4222 (20-d upper Bollinger band).

Overall bullish structure could be dented by overbought slow stochastic and loss of momentum, with bearish close today needed to generate initial bearish signal on formation of Doji reversal pattern.

Stronger bearish signal could be expected on break below 1.4124 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3965/1.4222 recovery leg) and confirmation of reversal on close below 1.4094 (converged rising 10/20SMA’s).

Bullish scenario, on the other side, needs close above 1.4200 to expose pivotal barrier at 1.4244 (26/27 Mar double-top), break of which would open way towards key barrier at 1.4345 (25 Jan top / the highest since Brexit vote in June 2016).

However, such scenario would require stronger catalyst, such as progress of Brexit negotiations or significant fall of the greenback.

Res: 1.4200, 1.4222, 1.4244, 1.4277
Sup: 1.4170, 1.4124, 1.4094, 1.4063

The Euro traded within 30-pips range in Asia on Thursday after failing to close above cracked 1.2376 pivot (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2476/1.2215 bear-leg) on Wednesday.

Four-day rally was rejected on approach to psychological 1.2400 barrier and the pair moved lower as immediate threats on US attack at Syria eased.

Narrow consolidation holds for now above immediate support at 1.2339 (55SMA) which guards key support at 1.2327 (daily cloud top).

The single currency holds bid after comments of ECB Nowotny earlier this week that the central bank would end its bond-buying program by the end of the year and open way for start of raising interest rates.

On the other side, daily techs signal possible stall of recovery rally from 1.2215, as overbought slow stochastic is reversing and 14-d momentum is at the centerline, in attempts to break into negative territory.

Geopolitical tensions could drive the Euro higher if situation in Syria escalates. Close above 1.2376 Fibo barrier would generate initial bullish signal for renewed attempts through 1.2400 and possible extension towards key n/t barrier at 1.2476 (27 Mar high).

Negative scenario would require close below daily cloud top (1.2327) to generate reversal signal and shift near-term focus lower.

Res: 1.2376, 1.2400, 1.2421, 1.2446
Sup: 1.2353, 1.2339, 1.2327, 1.2310

Despite high volatility, the common European currency remained stable against the Greenback on Wednesday. The general trading range for the pair was not significant, as it was fluctuating between the 23.60% Fibo at 1.2360 and the 1.2380 mark.

Given that technical indicators have already edged lower from their high positions, the Euro is likely to surrender under the bearish pressure. In addition, this currency has likewise failed to push towards the senior channel and the weekly R2 circa 1.2415. In order to confirm this decline, the pair still has to overcome the strong support of the 55-hour SMA, the 23.60% Fibo and the weekly R1 near 1.2360.

A successful breakout should send the pair towards the 1.2320 level, while a failure to do so is likely to result in a test of the senior channel

Mid-Wednesday was spent with high volatility for the GBP/USD exchange rate.

Trading slightly below the 1.42 mark early in the day, the Sterling managed to use its minor upside potential and shoot up to a downward-sloping trend-line at 1.4225. Along the way, a steep short-term channel up was breached to the downside. A fall did not follow, as the pair was restricted by the 55-hour SMA.

Considering that the Pound has failed to edge higher during the previous two sessions, it is unlikely that the post-Brexit-vote high at 1.4313 is tested today. Thus, the base scenario favours either a breakout of the 55-hour moving average and a test of the 1.41 area or a minor period of consolidation which should squeeze the rate between the trend-line and the 55-hour SMA.

The US Dollar was pressured by bears on Wednesday which resulted in a breakout of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs early in the session. This fall was stopped by the combined support of the 23.60% Fibonacci line, the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA circa 106.70. As apparent on the chart, this level has previously provided a significant resistance/support area. Thus, a downward-sloping triangle was confirmed.

By Thursday morning, the pair was squeezed in between the bounds of all these aforementioned levels. It is likely that traders are unable to breach them for some hours. Meanwhile, a breakout should determine the pair's subsequent movement during the day.

Technical indicators favour more a northern breakout of the 107.00 area that should send the Greenback for the 107.20/50 area.

The yellow metal was guided by bulls on Wednesday who strengthened their positions during the second part of the session. As a result, the pair made a false breakout of the senior channel and surged up to the 2017/2018 high of 1,365.00.

This strong appreciation eased considerably during the Asian session, as Gold returned back in the senior pattern. This morning, it was set towards the 55-hour SMA and a short-term trend-line circa 1,345.00. The 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the 23.60% Fibo line are likewise located nearby.

In case this bearish sentiment continues to prevail, Gold should target 1,336.00 without surpassing it. In terms of upside potential, the pair is unlikely to move above the aforementioned high which coincides with the upper boundary of a six-week channel up.

After approaching the lower boundary of a dominant channel, the British Pound began to appreciate against the Japanese Yen.

The currency pair bounced off the bottom boundary of a junior pattern on March 2 and the GBP/JPY exchange rate is gradually moving upwards for a likely re-test of the February 2 high at 156.65.

In general, two scenarios are likely during the following trading sessions. First, the currency pair might move past the weekly R1 and the monthly R1 at 151.59 and continue it smooth journey north. Second, the currency exchange rate might reverse from 151.61 to test a support level set by the 55-hour simple moving average at 150.38.

During the past two months, the Swiss Franc has been trading in a descending channel against the Japanese Yen. The currency pair re-tested an eight-month low of 110.45 on March 23 and subsequently reverse to the upside in a two-weeks ascending channel.

The CHF/JPY exchange rate is gradually moving upwards. However, the pair was stranded between SMAs at the time of this analysis. The 200– hour simple moving average was restricting the bull to continue it upside potential, while the combination of the 55– and 100– hour SMAs and the weekly pivot point was providing support for the pair.

Everything being equal, the pair could rally during the following trading sessions. In the meantime, technical indicators remain neutral.

XAUUSD (1351.71): Gold prices posted strong gains yesterday supported by the ongoing uncertainty in the geo-politics. The precious metal rallied to test the highs of 1365.30 before easing back from the intraday highs. The reversal comes at a familiar level where previously gold prices retreated. To the downside, the declines could see gold prices falling back to test the lower support at 1336 level. To the upside, we expect to see some consolidation taking place near the minor resistance level of 1357.

GBPUSD (1.4184): The British pound managed to hold on the gains after price broke past the 1.4162 level of resistance earlier this week. Price action has been consolidating above this level in the short term and we expect to see a retest of the breached support level. If support is established at 1.4162, then we expect to see further gains in store. Alternately, if the support at 1.4162 fails, GBPUSD could be posting a correction to the downside with a retest of the lower support seen at 1.4100.