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Euro Trading Marginally Lower, Ahead Of ECB’s Latest Meeting Minutes
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.09% against the USD and closed at 1.2369.
Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi stated that trade tariffs announced by the US and China are not expected to have a major impact on the Euro-zone economy, but they can dent investor confidence and spark retaliation.
The US Dollar plunged against a basket of currencies, as heightened tensions over Syria and Russia dented investor sentiment.
As per the minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) March meeting, policymakers broadly agreed that the US economy is growing at a strong pace while inflation has picked-up in recent months. Additionally, minutes indicated that the central bank remains on track for a gradual path of policy tightening, but a few officials expressed concerns that rising inflation may call for a faster pace of interest rate hikes. Further, board members voiced concerns that a heated trade war would hammer the US economic growth.
On the macro front, the US consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly dropped 0.1% on a monthly basis in March, dipping for the first time in 10 months and defying market expectations for a flat reading. The CPI had risen 0.2% in the previous month. Further, the nation's budget deficit narrowed to $208.7 billion in March, after recording a deficit of $215.2 billion in the prior month, while markets were anticipating the nation to record a deficit of $186.00 billion.
Other data revealed that the MBA mortgage applications in the US fell 1.9% in the week ended 06 April, compared to a drop of 3.3% in the previous week.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2366, with the EUR trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2343, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2321. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2392, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2419.
Trading trend in the Euro today is expected to be determined by the release of the ECB's March meeting minutes, due in a few hours. Moreover, the US initial jobless claims data, slated to release later in the day, will be on investors' radar.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
UK’s Manufacturing Production Posted First Decline Since March 2017 In February
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.08% against the USD and closed at 1.4180.
On the economic front, data showed that manufacturing production in the UK registered an unexpected drop of 0.2% MoM in February, marking the first drop since March 2017. In the preceding month, manufacturing production had registered a revised flat reading, whereas investors had envisaged for a gain of 0.2%. Moreover, the nation's construction output surprisingly slid 1.6% on a monthly basis in February, confounding market expectations for an increase of 0.9%. Construction output had registered a revised drop of 3.1% in the previous month.
On the contrary, the nation's industrial production advanced 0.1% on a monthly basis in February, undershooting market consensus for a rise of 0.4%. In the previous month, industrial production had climbed 1.3%. Also, the nation's total trade deficit narrowed to £0.97 billion in February, following a revised deficit of £2.95 billion in the previous month, while markets were anticipating the nation to register a deficit of £2.60 billion.
In other economic news, the NIESR estimated that Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% in the January-March 2018 period, compared to a revised advance of 0.1% in the December-February 2018 period. Market expectation was for NIESR estimated GDP to advance 0.3%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.4180, with the GBP trading flat against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.4153, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.4126. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4215, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4250.
Going ahead, investors would closely monitor the Bank of England's (BoE) credit conditions survey report, due to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Japan’s Economy On A Moderate Growth Path, Inflation Accelerated Recently: BoJ Kuroda
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.36% against the JPY and closed at 106.82.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 106.89, with the USD trading 0.07% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.
Earlier today, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, reiterated his optimistic view on meeting the central bank's 2.0% inflation target, but stuck to his pledge of maintaining the central bank's massive stimulus programme.
The pair is expected to find support at 106.65, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.40. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.14, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.38.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Swiss Franc Extends Its Losses In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.07% against the CHF and closed at 0.9576.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9582, with the USD trading 0.06% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9558, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9533. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9605, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9627.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Loonie Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.18% against the CAD and closed at 1.2575.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2585, with the USD trading 0.08% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2545, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2506. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2624, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2664.
Ahead in the day, traders would closely monitor Canada’s existing home sales data for March.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Gold: Yellow Metal Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.9% against the USD and closed at USD1356.40 per ounce, as concerns over escalating tensions in Syria as well as conflicts between US and Russia increased the demand for the safe haven yellow metal.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1353.70, with gold trading 0.2% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1341.67, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1329.63. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1367.57, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1381.43.
The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Silver: White Metal Reverses Its Gains In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.51% against the USD and closed at USD16.67 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.64, with silver trading 0.18% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 16.47, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.31. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.85, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 17.06.
The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading Higher In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 1.86% against the USD and closed at USD66.81 per barrel, following news that Saudi Arabia seized missiles over Riyadh.
Separately, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US crude oil stockpiles rose by 3.3 million barrels to 428.6 million barrels in the week ended 06 April.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 67.12, with oil trading 0.46% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 65.70, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 64.27. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 68.00, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 68.87.
Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
IMF Lagarde warned of two challenges of China’s Belt and Road
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde talked about China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative at a conference in Beijing today. She acknowledged the potential of the initiative as a "platform for international cooperation" and there were already "signs of progress". Nonetheless, Lagarde also warned of two challenges.
Firstly, she urged that Belt and Road "Only travels where it is needed". She pointed to global experience of "failed projects" and "misuse of funds". Also, Chinese and other companies involved in construction overseas may face "new political, legal, and environmental obstacles". Secondly, she warned that the Belt and Road ventures can "problematic increase in debt". And that could potentially limit other spending as debt service rises and create "balance of payment challenges".
High-level NAFTA talks to continue as sideline of Summit of the Americas in Lima
High-level NAFTA negotiations will resume this week on the sidelines of the Summit of the Americas in Lima, Peru this weekend. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will be present in the occasion even though President Donald Trump cancelled is trip. Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo will be there too.
It's believed that Trump is still seeking to close the NAFTA deal quickly and offered a concession regarding car contents. The timing is important as securing the deal by May should meet all the necessary deadlines to have the revised NAFTA agreement approved by Republican-controlled Congress, before mid-term elections. Another key milestone is Mexican elections on July 1.