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Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.06; (P) 151.59; (R1) 152.49; More...

GBP/JPY rises to as high as 152.23 so far and met 61.8% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 152.15. Intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally. Nonetheless, for now, price actions from 144.97 are still seen as corrective looking. Hence, we'll look for sign of loss of upside momentum as it approaches 156.59 high. On the downside, below 150.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 148.37 is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the outlook is turning mixed again. On the one hand, the cross was rejected by 55 month EMA (now at 154.20) after breaching it briefing. On the other hand, there was no sustainable selling pushing it through 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51. The most likely scenario is that GBP/JPY is turning into a sideway pattern between 143.51 and 156.59. And more range trading would now be seen before a breakout, possibly on the upside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8696; (P) 0.8711; (R1) 0.8731; More...

For now, choppy decline from 0.8796 might extend lower. And, decisive break of 0.8666 will resume whole fall from 0.9305. In that case, EUR/GBP should target 0.8303 key support next. On the upside, above 0.8749 will reaffirm the strong support from 0.8686 and turn bias to the upside for 0.8796. Break there will target 61.8% retracement of 0.8967 to 0.8666 at 0.8852 and above.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5864; (P) 1.5941; (R1) 1.5991; More....

At this point, EUR/AUD is staying in range of 1.5852/6084 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.5857 minor support holds, further rally is expected in the cross. On the upside, above 1.6084 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.6189 first. Break will resume larger rally towards 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.5857 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.5621 support to confirm.

In the bigger picture,rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. And it's still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance level. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But for now, break of 1.5621 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1785; (P) 1.1805; (R1) 1.1843; More...

EUR/CHF surges to as high as 1.1875 so far today. The strong break of 1.1832 high confirms medium term up trend resumption. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 1.2 handle first. Break will target 61.8% projection of 1.0629 to 1.1832 from 1.1445 at 1.2188 next. On the downside, below 1.1804 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained well above 1.1649 support to bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.1832 should now extend the medium term up trend through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. 2013 high at 1.2649should be the next target. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1445 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2312; (P) 1.2345 (R1) 1.2387; More....

EUR/USD's rally from 1.2214 continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.2475/2555 resistance zone. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to bring another fall to extend sideway trading. On the downside, below 1.2302 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2214 instead.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4134; (P) 1.4160; (R1) 1.4202; More....

GBP/USD's rise extends to as high as 1.4214 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.4243 resistance and then 1.4345 high. Firm break of 1.4345 will resume medium term rally and target 61.8% projection of 1.3038 to 1.4345 from 1.3711 at 1.4519 next. On the downside, below 1.4144 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.3964 support holds in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3651 resistance turned support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remain bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down trend from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4267) so far. Break of 1.3651 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and turn focus to 1.3038 support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9544; (P) 0.9577; (R1) 0.9593; More...

USD/CHF is staying in range of 0.9521/9648 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, firm break of 0.9521 minor support will indicate rejection by 0.9626 key fibonacci resistance. Intraday bias would then be turned back to the downside for 0.9432 support first. Break there will also confirm completion of rebound from 0.9186 and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, sustained break of 0.9626 will be another evidence of larger reversal. In this case, further rise would be seen to next fibonacci level at 0.9900.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.50; (P) 106.85; (R1) 107.09; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as it's bounded in tight range below 107.48 temporary top. For now, rebound from 104.62 could extend higher. But reaction from 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 is crucial to determine the outlook. Firm break of 108.48 will add some credence to the case of trend reversal. And USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement at 110.86 next. Nonetheless, rejection from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 key resistance too), will retain bearishness. Break of 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7713; (P) 0.7741; (R1) 0.7788; More...

AUD/USD's rebound from 0.7642 extended to as high as 0.7768. But it's limited below 0.7784 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral with near term outlook staying bearish. Another fall is still in favor. On the downside, break of 0.7642 will resume the decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.7500 key support level. On the upside, however, firm break of 0.7784 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 0.7915 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.

General Trend:

• Asian equity markets trade mixed following Tuesday’s gains: Trade remains on the radar, along with Syria and US politics
• Energy shares gain, track Tuesday’s rise in oil prices
• Softbank rises over 4% amid renewed merger speculation between Sprint and T-Mobile
• PBoC Gov Yi Gang suggests yuan depreciation will not be used as trade tool, gives date for previously announced moves to open up financial sector; comments on US/China interest rate differential
• China announced plans to expand daily quota for China/Hong Kong stock link program
• China aims to start Shanghai-London stock connect within 2018.
• China Vice Fin Min says previously announced cuts in import tariffs on autos and other products to be implemented ‘as early as possible’
• China March CPI and PPI slow amid easing of Lunar New Year impact
• Japan March Banking Lending slows to 5-year low; Feb machine orders unexpectedly rise
• RBA Gov Lowe reiterates no strong case for near-term policy adjustment, next rate move likely to be up; notes potential trade risks
• US March CPI and Fed FOMC Minutes due for release later on Wednesday

Headlines/Economic Data

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened +0.1%; closed -0.5%
• TOPIX Retail Trade index -2%; Securities +1.6%, Iron & Steel +0.9%
• (JP) Moody's Report: Japan aging population poses both near-term and long-term credit challenges
• (JP) Japan Feb Core Machine Orders M/M: +2.1% v -2.5%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 0.0%e
• (JP) JAPAN MAR PPI (CGPI) M/M: -0.1% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.0%E
• (JP) Japan Mar Bank Lending Ex-Trusts Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.1% prior; Incl Trusts Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.1% prior
• (JP) Japan researchers find 16M tons of rare earth deposits, equivalent to a few hundred years of global consumption - Nikkei
• Looking ahead: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Gov Kuroda may speak on Thursday
• (JP) Former Japan lawmaker Shizuka Kamei plans to visit North Korea in May in order to hold talks with top leaders – Japanese Press

Korea

• Kospi opened +0.2%
• (KR) South Korea Mar Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 3.6%e (prior 3.6%)
• (KR) South Korea Feb M2 Money Supply m/m: 0.5% v 1.3% prior; y/y: 6.2% v 5.5% prior; L Money Supply m/m: 0.5% v 1.0% prior; y/y: 6.8% v 6.8% prior
• Looking Ahead: Bank of Korea (BoK) interest rate decision expected on Thursday (unchanged expected)

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened +0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.2%
• Hang Seng Energy index +2.4%, Financials +1.4%, Info Tech +0.8%; Telecom -0.9%, Consumer Goods -0.8%
• Shanghai Composite Property Sub-index rises over 1%
• (CN) China Researcher: Need to be wary of structural inflation risks - China Daily
• (CN) PBoC Gov Yi Gang: Will not allow yuan to depreciate
• (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips reverse repo operations for 2nd consecutive day; Net: CNY20B drain v CNY30B drain prior
• (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate at 6.2911 v 6.3071 prior
• (CN) PBoC Gov Yi Gang: Interest rate differential with the US is in 'comfortable range'; to implement opening policies by June 2018
• (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) sees Q1 retail sales up ~10% y/y – financial press
• Rusal, 486.HK Said to have asked customers to pay in Euros and not Dollars in order to get around US sanctions - financial press
• (CN) CHINA MAR CPI M/M: -1.1% V 1.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.6%E; PPI Y/Y:3.1% V 3.3%E
• (CN) Asia Development Bank (ADB): Raises China 2018 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% v 6.4% in Dec

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened +0.1%
• ASX 200 Utilities index -1.6%, Telecom -1.3%, Consumer Discretionary -1.1%, Financials -1%, REIT -0.7%; Energy +1.3%, Resources +1.1%
• (AU) RBA Gov Lowe: Reiterates next rate move likely to be up not down, may come as a shock as it will be first one in 7-yrs; no argument to change policy currently
• (AU) Australia buys back A$600M in 2019 and 2020 bonds
• South32, S32.AU Colombia court ruled that water emissions from Cerro Matoso nickle project cause locals to suffer health issues including cancer - AFR
• (AU) Australia Apr Westpac Consumer Confidence Index: 102.4 v 103.0 prior; M/M: -0.6% 0.2% prior
• (AU) Australia to implement new laws on cryptocurrency
• (AU) Australia sells A$600M v A$600M indicated in 2.75% Nov 2028 bonds, avg yield 2.7069% v 2.7124% prior, bid to cover 4.25x v 4.46x prior
• (AU) Australia Mar TD Inflation Gauge m/m: +0.1% v -0.1% prior
• (NZ) New Zealand to probe steel dumping allegations related to China and Malaysia
• Looking Ahead: RBNZ Assistant Gov McDermott expected to give speech on inflation targeting on Thursday

North America

• US equity markets ended higher: Dow +1.8%, S&P500 +1.7%, Nasdaq +2.1%, Russell 2000 +1.9%
• S&P500 Energy +3.3%, Technology +2.5%
• VirnetX [VHC] Texas Court rules Apple to pay $502.6M to VirnetX in Patent case; +41% after hours
• Hilton [HLT] Prices upsized offering of $1.50B (prior $500M) in 5.125% senior notes due 2026 (6.2% of market cap)
• (US) US President Trump said to consider firing Deputy AG Rosenstein - US Media
• (US) Fed's Bostic (FOMC voter, dove): Does not comment on monetary policy in initial remarks
• (US) White House press sec Sanders: Encouraged by President Xi comments on trade but want to see concrete actions
• (CN) Pres Trump: "Very thankful for President Xi of China’s kind words on tarrifs and automobile barriers...also, his enlightenment on intellectual property and technology transfers. We will make great progress together!"
• (US) Trade officials in the US are concerned that some companies are enabling steel producers in China to avoid the US tariffs – US financial press
• (US) TREASURY'S $30B 3-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS: 2.450%; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.85 V 3.94 PRIOR AND 2.91 OVER THE LAST 12 AUCTIONS
• (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: +1.8M v -3.3M prior

Europe

• (EU) ECB spokesperson: Nowotny's views are his own and do not represent the view of the Governing Council [Note: Nowotny stated that it was too early to say when rate hikes would begin but could start the process with 20bps hike in Deposit Rate to -0.20%]
• (FR) France Fin Ministry: sees 2018 GDP growth at 2%, 2019 at 1.9%, and 2020-2022 at 1.7%
• 21st Century Fox [FOXA]: European Commission reportedly raids Fox HQ in London; Fox says it is cooperating - press
• Rusal [RUALR.RU]: Reportedly to begin asking customers to pay in Euros - press
• Looking Ahead: ECB President Draghi is expected to speak

Levels as of 02:00ET

• Hang Seng +0.8%; Shanghai Composite +0.8%; Kospi -0.2%; ASX 200 -0.5%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.5%; Nasdaq100 -0.4%, Dax -0.2%; FTSE100 -0.0%
• EUR 1.2370-1.2353; JPY 107.23-106.97; AUD 0.7769-0.7748;NZD 0.7375-0.7346
• Jun Gold -0.0% at $1,345/oz; May Crude Oil -0.2%at $65.36/brl; May Copper -0.8% at $3.11/lb