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Following a breakout of a five-week ascending channel early on Thursday, the yellow metal was unable to fall below the 1,324.00 mark. As a result, it remained near its bottom line for the whole session.

The pair tried to push higher during the Asian session; this move, however, was stopped by the strong resistance of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the 23.60% Fibo. It is expected that the long-term moving average which sets the highest point of this cluster is not breached.

The strength of this resistance barrier suggests that Gold is more likely to decline during this session. There is still some significant downside potential, as the nearest support is set by the distant 38.20% Fibo retracement at 1,316.67

The Euro remains under pressure on Friday and hit new five-week low on probe below Thursday's low at 1.2218. Fresh extension lower looks for close below 1.2240/30 pivots (higher base/Fibo 76.4% of 1.2154/1.2476) after Thursday's dip through failed, to open way towards strong support zone between 1.2165 and 1.2147 (daily cloud base/01 Mar trough/100SMA). Daily MA's are in bullish configuration (10/20 & 10/30SMA bear cross was formed yesterday) and 14-d momentum heads south, deeply in negative territory, maintaining pressure. US jobs data are expected to generate fresh direction signal, with strong earning and NFP numbers to boost dollar and further depress the single currency. Bearish scenario requires close below daily cloud base (also near Fibo 38.2% of 1.1553/1.2555 ascend) to signal further retracement of the bull-leg from 1.1553 (07 Nov trough). On the other side, jobs data miss would provide relief and sideline immediate downside risk in favor of stronger recovery. Plethora of MA barriers lies between 1.2310 and 1.2337, with close above 30SMA (1.2337) needed to generate stronger bullish signal.

Res: 1.2259, 1.2290, 1.2310, 1.2337
Sup: 1.2215, 1.2165, 1.2147, 1.2100

The pair regained traction and is pressuring daily cloud base again after dipping to 107 in early Asian trading on Friday, as US President Trump shook the markets by threats for additional tariffs on China.

The impact on the pair from Trump’s comments which threatened to escalate trade tension between the US and China, was so far limited, as bullish structure remains intact and keep focus at the upside.

Strong bullish acceleration in past three days resulted in marginal close above falling 55SMA and cracking the base of thick daily cloud, signaling that bulls could extend further on firm break through these pivotal barriers.

Close within widening daily cloud would be bullish signal for extension of recovery leg from 104.63 (26 Mar low) towards targets at 107.90/97 (21 Feb high/Fibo 38.2% of 113.38/104.63 fall).

Bullish setup of daily MA’s (double bull-cross – 10/20 & 10/30SMA has formed) and strong bullish momentum, maintain bullish bias, however, overbought slow stochastic suggests bulls may hold in extended consolidation.

Former top of 28 Mar and overnight’s low at 107 mark initial support, which was so far able to contain attacks, guarding Thursday’s low at 106.71 and rising daily Tenkan-sen at 106.40.

US labor data is the key event today and would likely generate strong direction signal.

Growth of US jobs likely slowed in March, according to the forecast for 193K new jobs, compared to surprise jump to 313K in February.

Analysts expect March’s job growth to remain below the average of the past three months (242K) but to remain firm and well above 100K, which marks the border line between growth and contraction in the sector.

The unemployment is expected to fall to 4.0% in March (the lowest since Dec 2000).

Investors will be focusing earnings numbers, as wages are still the weakest point in tight labor market.

Forecast shows increase of Average Hourly Earnings by 0.3% in March, compared to 0.1% increase previous month, with upbeat wages data expected to boost the dollar.

Res: 107.50, 107.97, 108.28, 108.67
Sup: 107.29, 107.00, 106.71, 106.40

XAUUSD (1330.29): The decline in gold prices stalled around the 1328 handle with price posting a strong rebound. Gold prices could remain caught within the range as resistance at 1336 is likely to keep a lid on any gains to the upside. There is a high possibility that gold prices will breakout to the downside in the near term as we expect to see gold prices extending the decline to 1307. To the upside, price action will need to clear the 1336 level to establish further gains to the upside.

GBPUSD (1.3998): The British pound fell back to the 1.4000 handle yesterday and with a firm test of support at this level we expect to see some upside momentum in the near term. The decline to 1.4000 level marks the completion of the bearish flag pattern. A breakdown below this support will see prices extending the losses as GBPUSD could test the 1.3902 level of support. To the upside, if the support holds then GBPUSD is likely to retrace the gains to test the minor resistance level at 1.4115 - 1.4092 region.

EURUSD (1.2239): The EURUSD resumed the declines yesterday as prices briefly tested a fresh monthly low on an intraday basis before pulling back. Price action is seen consolidating near the 1.2243 level of support and this support could hold the declines in the near term. We expect to see EURUSD attempting to post a rebound in the near term, but with resistance at 1.2300 the common currency could be seen trading within this range. A breakout from either of these levels will set the path for the next leg in the rally or declines. Resistance at 1.2385 remains as a target to the upside while below 1.2243, the next support at 1.2188 will be tested.

The U.S. dollar was seen trading stronger on the day as economic data from the Eurozone and the UK disappointed. The equity markets pushed higher on improving market sentiment as investors took a break from the uncertainty from the trade wars.

In the UK, the services sector PMI data came out weaker as the index fell to 51.7 missing estimates of 53.9 and down from February's print of 54.5. The British pound slipped on the news as the services PMI wrapped up a weak month of March. Previously, manufacturing PMI was weaker alongside construction PMI which showed a contraction in the sector.

In the Eurozone, retail sales data showed a 0.1% increase on the month which was below estimates of a 0.6% increase. Previous month's data was also revised down to show a 0.3% decline. The services PMI data from the Eurozone was seen at 54.0 which was slower than February's print of 54.2

Looking ahead, the economic data today will focus on the payrolls report for March. Following a stronger than expected print from the ADP data earlier this week, economists forecast that payrolls rose 188k on the month. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to slip to 4.0% marking a new low in recent years while wage growth is forecast to rise 0.3% on the month.

ECB Executive Board member Benoît Cœuré warned of "consequence of protectionism" in a speech at a workshop today.

A few from the speech to note:

• "Greater global economic integration has boosted living standards worldwide and lifted millions out of poverty."
• "Winding back globalisation is the wrong solution." And, "a retreat from openness will only fuel more inequality as import prices rise, goods become dearer and real incomes fall."
• "The distributional and social effects of greater economic integration should rather be addressed by targeted policies that achieve fairer outcomes."
• "By allowing Member States to recover some of the state functions that have been eroded by globalisation, the European Union is a vehicle that brings the benefits of economic openness to the greatest number of its citizens while protecting them against untrammelled global forces. It represents the most progressive model we have for taking back control of globalisation by addressing people's concerns over open markets and fair competition – doubts that individual countries on their own cannot dispel."

Here is the full speech.

EURGBP remains in a slightly downward tilting channel, which has been in place since September 2017. The longer-term neutral to bearish outlook was recently confirmed again when the pair touched a 9-month low of 0.8668 on March 22. It has since recovered from that low but the rebound was halted after finding resistance around 0.8790.

In the near term, a fresh upside push is possible with prices looking to post a second straight session of gains today. However, the RSI appears to be flatlining before it’s managed to cross into positive territory above 50, suggesting sideways trading is more likely in the short term.

Should the positive momentum gain further traction though, fresh resistance could come at the tenkan-sen line around 0.8755. A break above this level could lead prices towards the 0.8790-0.8800 resistance region. Further gains would bring the 50-day moving average (currently around 0.8820) into view. A successful challenge of the 50-day moving average would shift the near-term bias to bullish as well as take price action above the Ichimoku cloud and into the upper half of the channel.

To the downside, immediate support is likely to come from the 0.8710 mark, which has proved a strong support area in the past. Below that, the March low of 0.8668 is the next support to watch. A breach of this level could lead prices below the lower channel line and deepen the bearish outlook in the medium term.

At 07:45 GMT, ECB's Coeure is expected to make a scheduled speech. EUR pairs may see an impact from this data release.

At 12:30 GMT, US Non-Farm Payrolls (Mar) is expected at 190K v a prior 313K. This measures the change in the number of employed people in March. The Unemployment Rate (Mar) is expected at 4.0% with a prior of 4.1%. This measures the percentage of the total workforce unemployed and actively seeking employment during March. Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Mar) is expected to be 2.7% against 2.6% previously. Average Weekly Hours (Mar) is expected to be unchanged at 34.5. Labour Force Participation Rate (Mar) is expected to be 63.5% against a prior reading of 63.0%. This data can have a large impact on markets, as the tight labour market has yet to lead to an increase in earnings. This would lead to an increase in inflation, which markets have reacted negatively to recently. USD crosses could experience volatility around these data releases.

At 12:30 GMT, Canadian Unemployment Rate (Mar) is expected to be unchanged at 5.8%. Participation Rate (Mar) is also expected to be unchanged at 65.5%. Net Change in Employment (Mar) is expected to be 20.0K against a prior 15.4K. Unemployment had fallen to the lowest levels in ten years, at 5.7%, in November but ticked up slightly in December, with the large drop in the Net Change in Employment data, the largest fall since 2009. CAD pairs could see an increase in price movement from this data.

At 14:00 GMT, Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (Mar) is expected to be 60.2 against a previous 59.6. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Mar) was 58.4 previously. This data is showing robust growth, continuing one of the longest positive runs, with 20 months above 50.0. CAD crosses may be moved by this data release.

At 15:15 GMT, UK BOE Governor Carney is due to speak at the International Climate Risk Conference for Supervisors, in Amsterdam. GBP crosses may be impacted by comments made during this time.

At 17.00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts is due to be released with a headline number from last week of 798. WTI Oil can become volatile around this data release and will be in traders' minds when trading resumes on Monday.

At 17:30 GMT, US Fed Chairman Powel is due to speak about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago. Audience questions are expected and comments may result in moves in USD crosses.

At 19:00 GMT, US Consumer Credit Change (Feb) is expected to be $15.00B against a reading of $13.91B prior. This has been moving lower since reaching a high of $28.00B in January but there are seasonal factors that lead to a drop in the New Year. USD pairs may be affected by this data.