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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.99; (P) 150.34; (R1) 150.71; More...
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral. We maintain that the choppy rise from 144.97 is a corrective move. Hence, strong resistance is expected from 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) to limit upside and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 148.37 minor support will bring retest of 144.97 low first. However, sustained break of 150.92 will indicate near term reversal and pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.
In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.16; (P) 131.32; (R1) 131.60; More....
EUR/JPY is still staying in consolidation in range of 128.94/132.40. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 132.40 resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8720; (P) 0.8734; (R1) 0.8754; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. 0.8666/86 is seen as an important support zone that EUR/GBP has just drawn support from. Further rise is mildly in favor. Break of 0.8796 will resume the rebound from 0.8666 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.8967 to 0.8666 at 0.8852 and above. However, decisive break of 0.8666 will resume whole fall from 0.9305 and target 0.8312 key support.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5885; (P) 1.5937; (R1) 1.5977; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral at this point. With 1.5857 support intact, another rise is expected. On the upside, above 1.6084 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.6189 first. Break will resume the whole rally from 1.5153 and target 1.6587 key resistance. Nonetheless, break of 1.5857 will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.5621 support to confirm.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. And it's still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance level. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But for now, break of 1.5621 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stays bullish even in case of deep pull back.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1773; (P) 1.1789; (R1) 1.1806; More...
No change in EUR/CHF's outlook. Further rise could be seen as the rebound from 1.1445 extends. But still, we'll stay cautious on strong resistance from 1.1832 to bring near term reversal. Below 1.1730 will turn bias to the downside first. Further break of 1.1649 support will indicate completion of rebound form 1.1445. And the corrective pattern from 1.1832 would then extend with another decline to retest 1.1445. However, firm break of 1.1832 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2207; (P) 1.2249 (R1) 1.2279; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside for 1.2154 support. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci resistance. In that case, whole decline from 1.2555 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. On the upside, above 1.2314 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3947; (P) 1.4022; (R1) 1.4078; More....
GBP/USD's fall continues to as low as 1.3964. Focus remains on 1.3982 support. Decisive break there will indicate completion of the rise from 1.3711. In that case, deeper decline should be seen back to retest 1.3711. Nonetheless, strong rebound from 1.3982, followed by break of 1.4096 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.4243. Break will resume the rally from 1.3711 for 1.4345 high first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9607; (P) 0.9623; (R1) 0.9649; More...
USD/CHF continues to press 0.9626 key fibonacci level but there is no sustained trading above there yet. On the upside, sustained break of 0.9626 will be another evidence of larger reversal. In this case, further rise would be seen to next fibonacci level at 0.9900. However, rejection from 0.9262, followed by break of 0.9521 support, will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9432 support. Break there will indicate near term reversal and completion of rebound from 0.9186.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.89; (P) 107.19; (R1) 107.68; More...
USD/JPY's rebound from 104.62 is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48. Firm break there will add some credence to the case of trend reversal. And USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement at 110.86 next. Nonetheless, rejection from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 key resistance too), will retain bearish next. Break of 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7678; (P) 0.7699; (R1) 0.7737; More...
Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral as consolidation from 0.7642 temporary low is still in progress. Near term outlook stays bearish with 0.7784 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.7642 to will turn bias to the downside to extend recent fall from 0.8135 to retest 0.7500 key support level. On the upside, however, break of 0.7784 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 0.7915 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.




















