Sample Category Title

EUR/USD is decreasing, trading below 1.23 and approaching the 1.22 range. The pair is currently maintained between hourly support and resistance given at 1.2165 (17/01/2018 low) and 1.2506 (25/01/2018 high). The technical structure suggests further short-term downward moves.

In the longer term, the momentum is turning largely positive. We favor a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2886 (15/10/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.1554 (08/11/2017 low).

AUD/USD bouncing move stops, the pair is currently trading sideways below 0.77. Hourly support and resistance are given at 0.7638 (15/12/2017 low) and 0.7810 (28/12/2017 high). The technical structure suggests short-term decrease.

In the long-term, the upward trend slows down after failing to reach key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 low). Key support stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD is bouncing off from 1.2745 low, expected to increase along the 1.2790 range. Hourly support and resistance remain at 1.2732 (27/02/2018 low) and 1.3308 (23/06/2017 high). The short-term technical structure suggests short-term increase.

In the longer term, the pair is trading between resistance point at 1.3805 (05/05/2017 high) and support at 1.2128 (18/06/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head lower. The pair is trading above its 200 DMA

USD/CHF rise continues, approaching the upper bound of the upward trend channel and currently trading above the 0.96 range. Expected to head along the 0.9640 range. The bullish pattern started from 0.9188 (16/02/2018 low) continues. The pair is contained between hourly support and resistance given at 0.9296 (05/02/2018 low) and 0.9668 (17/01/2018 high). The technical structure suggests short-term upward moves.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support lies at 0.9072 (07/05/2015 low) while resistance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high) is distanced. The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

The UK 100 Index has rebounded higher after testing support and forming a new low at 6835.7. The price is currently around the 50 DMA at 7194.0 and has retested the red trend line as support. Resistance is now found at the 7300.0 level and the 100 DMA, with the 200 DMA at 7327.0, which is in line with the highs from late February. A break above here would lead to a retest of 7400.0, possibly opening the way to 7600.0 and the highs at 7795.0.

Support can be seen at the red descending trend line at 7103.2, with a loss here targeting 7000.0. The 6916.3 level comes into play as the low from early February but this has been weakened by the move lower in March. The blue trend line is descending through 6905.0 at present. Support below the recent lows comes in at 6750.0 and 6640.0.

EURUSD

With Non-Farm Payrolls on the calendar for today, USD crosses come into focus. EURUSD has moved down under support at 1.23000 and broken under the 1.22400 level. This has led to a test of the 1.22141 support level today. Further losses would target 1.22000 and 1.21500, with 1.21111 below. A retest of 1.20000 would attract major interest from traders looking to open longer-term positions.

Resistance can be found at the cluster of moving averages around 1.23000, where the 50-period MA is found. The 100 and 200-period MAs are at the 1.23130 area currently. A break above the 1.23223 level could lead to a reversal higher to target 1.23765 and the descending broken blue trend line. Should price achieve a break above here, the high at 1.24761 comes into focus. The descending blue trend line is located at the 1.25000 level.

Here are the latest developments in global markets:

FOREX: The US dollar came under fresh selling pressure yesterday after President Donald Trump stepped up the trade war with China and threatened additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The greenback briefly dipped below the key 107 level, having hit a 5-week high of 107.49 yen earlier in the day. Market participants chose instead to focus on the strong economic fundamentals of the US and global economy and the dollar quickly recovered, with dollar/yen last trading around 107.40 and the dollar index around 90.50. The euro remained subdued after this week’s weak PMI readings for the Eurozone and stayed close to yesterday’s 5-week low of $1.2212. Sterling also lost ground versus the dollar following disappointing services PMI out of the UK and was trading lower at $1.3987 at the European open. The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars were slightly down against their US counterpart too, though the loonie did hit a more than one-month high of C$1.2740 to the greenback yesterday on optimism about a NAFTA deal.

STOCKS: Asian stocks failed to get inspired by a third day of strong gains on Wall Street overnight as escalating trade tensions between the US and China weighed in risk sentiment once again. Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.4% down on the day but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index managed to post gains of 1%. Markets in China were closed for a national holiday. In Europe, major indices opened lower, with the German Dax and the French CAC both down by 0.4%. London’s FTSE saw smaller losses and was last trading 0.25% lower. US stock futures were also in the red, indicating the recent run of gains is about to end.

COMMODITIES: Gold prices failed to get a boost from the dip in risk appetite after President Trump turned up the heat in the Sino-US trade dispute. The precious metal extended this week’s losses to fall towards $1321 to a more than 2-week low. Oil prices were also under pressure today, with WTI crude falling by 0.6% to $63.14 a barrel and Brent crude by 0.5% to just below $68 a barrel. The rise in trade tensions weighed on the oil market but losses were minimized as there was some support from the surprise increase in US crude stocks in this week’s EIA report.

Major movers: FX markets, dollar rebound undeterred by Trump’s latest move

Major pairs were relatively steady this morning despite the slight deterioration in risk appetite. The latest bout of risk-off came after the US President yesterday instructed his administration to find $100 billion worth of additional tariffs on Chinese products in an angry response to China’s retaliatory measures against the earlier import taxes announced by Trump.

On Wednesday, fears of a trade war appeared to be subsiding after the White House’s chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow indicated the US may not go through with the proposed tariffs and is seeking to negotiate a solution to the trade dispute with China. But the latest developments suggest the stand-off may get worse before the two sides come to an agreement.

For now though, traders are focusing their attention on the upcoming jobs report out of the US later in day as well as on the earnings season which gets underway next week. This was enough to drive the dollar to 5-week high against a basket of currencies, with its index hitting 90.60 in European trading today and dollar/yen holding comfortably above the 107 handle.

However, the risk-off and associated safe-haven demand helped the yen appreciate against most other currencies despite disappointing data out of Japan today. Household spending in Japan fell by a bigger-than-expected 1.5% month-on-month in February versus forecasts of a 0.6% fall. The yen was up by 0.1% against the euro and the pound at 131.31 per euro and 150.33 per pound.

The euro meanwhile continued its downtrend this week with more negative data dragging down on the currency today. Industrial output in Germany plunged by 1.6% m/m in February, missing forecasts of a 0.3% increase. The German data is the latest in a series of indicators pointing to slower growth in the Eurozone in the first quarter of 2018. The single currency was last trading at $1.2231.

The Canadian dollar paused for breath on Friday but looked set the be the week’s biggest riser against the greenback on signs that a NAFTA deal is within reach. The Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Thursday that talks between the US, Canada and Mexico were “moving forward in a significant way”. The loonie gave back some of those gains today however, easing to around C$1.2780 to the US dollar.

Day ahead: All eyes on US jobs report; Powell speech also awaited

As the first week of April comes to an end it’s time for another US jobs report with traders hoping for further evidence of a continuation of the goldilocks economy. Consensus forecasts are that the rosy picture of an expanding labour market and modest wage growth didn’t change last month. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 193k in March, down from February’s surge of 313k jobs but still a healthy figure. Average hourly earnings are forecast to edge up to 2.7% year-on-year.

Canada is also expected to report its jobs report. Employment is forecast to rise by 20k in March, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.8%. A stronger-than-expected reading could push the loonie to fresh highs, taking closer to the C$1.27 level. But a weaker report could deepen today’s correction versus the greenback.

Also on the horizon today is a speech by new Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell at 17:30 GMT. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook before the Economic Club of Chicago. The dollar could receive a double boost should the NFP report beat expectations and Powell to sound hawkish. But under the current climate of escalating trade tensions, disappointing jobs numbers and a cautious Powell could reverse the dollar’s recovery.

Cable holds in tight consolidation around 1.40 handle on Friday after previous day's strong fall which dented key 1.40 support zone but failed to close below.

Sideways mode today could be see as consolidation ahead of fresh downside, as Thursday's bearish outside day is negative signal but requires close below day's low at 1.3965 for verification.

Negative scenario could be reinforced by twist of daily cloud next week, which usually attracts.

On the other side, mixed MA's on daily chart lack stronger signal but momentum studies remain weak.

Sentiment remains positive on persisting optimism regarding rate hikes and Brexit talks but catalyst is needed to define near-term direction.

Initial pivots lay at 1.4039 (20SMA) and 1.3975 (30SMA) clear break of which would generate firmer direction signal.

Bullish scenario requires extension and close above 10SMA (1.4068) for confirmation, while bearish acceleration through 1.3975/65 pivots would open pivotal support at 1.3915 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.3711/1.4244 rally).

Release of US jobs data is expected to provide further direction signals.

Res: 1.4039, 1.4068, 1.4099, 1.4121
Sup: 1.3975, 1.3965, 1.3915, 1.3889

Downside risks dominated the common European currency was on Thursday, as rather disappointing Euro zone's PMI and German factory orders restricted the pair from breaching the 55-hour SMA. The pair fell to a short-term trend-line and the 38.20% Fibo retracement and has since remained trading at the given level.

Technical indicators suggest that the same bearish sentiment which has dominated the Euro for the last eight sessions could prevail in this session, as well.

Downside potential is apparent until the 2017 low, the weekly S2 and the monthly S1 at 1.2165. However, it is unlikely that such a plunge would occur today, thus setting the 1.22 mark as a more probable target.

Meanwhile, the pair is not expected to surpass the psychological 1.23 mark due to the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.

Following an unsuccessful attempt to breach the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1.41 early on Thursday, the bearish sentiment started to guide the Sterling lower. As a result, it finally breached the four-day narrow trading range and fell down to a support cluster formed by a short-term trend-line and the monthly PP near 1.40.

The pair's inability to push below this level and reach the senior channel at 1.3950 does show that it might provide an unbreakable psychological barrier. Technical indicators are likewise neutral, suggesting that a significant fall should not occur today. On the contrary, it is more likely that the Pound reverses to the upside and targets the 55– and 100-hour SMAs located at 1.4050.

This session includes several noteworthy fundamentals that should introduce volatility.

The US Dollar managed to extend gains against the Yen during the previous session. The pair reached a new March high, but a further advance were restricted by the monthly R1 at 107.53.

The Asian session began with a fall, as Trump's proposal of new tariffs triggered risk-averse investors. By and large, it is likely that the monthly R1 pressures the rate lower during the following hours, while it remains guided by the 55-hour SMA.

The Greenback faces a relatively strong support area which is unlikely to be fully surpassed. However, some retracement down to the 100-hour SMA and the breached medium-term channel circa 106.50 might still follow.

The trading range for today is expected to be wide, as US employment data is published at 1230GMT