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Aussie Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.84% against the USD and closed at 0.7848 on Friday.
LME Copper prices declined 0.3% or $22.0/MT to $6808.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.2% or $4.0/MT to $2078.5/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7865, with the AUD trading 0.22% higher against the USD from Friday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7805, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7746. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7897, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7930.
Moving ahead, investors would keep a close watch on Australia's NAB business confidence index for February, slated to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Germany’s Final Industrial Production Surprisingly Dipped In January
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR slightly rose against the USD and closed at 1.2314 on Friday.
Macroeconomic data indicated that Germany’s seasonally adjusted final industrial production unexpectedly eased 0.1% on a monthly basis in January, while a preliminary reading had indicated an advance of 0.6%. Industrial production had registered a revised fall of 0.5% in the prior month. Further, the nation’s seasonally adjusted trade surplus surprisingly narrowed to €17.4 billion in January, amid an unexpected decline in both imports and exports. The nation had posted a revised trade surplus of €18.1 billion in the prior month, while markets were anticipating it to post a steady reading.
The US Dollar declined against its major peers on Friday, as disappointing US wage growth data fuelled speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would not be able to adopt an aggressive path of monetary policy tightening this year.
Data indicated that non-farm payrolls in the US jumped more-than-anticipated by 313.0K in February, notching its highest level in nearly 2 years, thus indicating that the nation’s labour market continues to add jobs at a healthy pace. Non-farm payrolls had registered a revised gain of 239.0K in the prior month, while investors had envisaged for a rise of 205.0K. Meanwhile, the nation’s average hourly earnings of all employees grew 0.1% MoM in February, undershooting market expectations for an advance of 0.2%, reigniting concerns that tighter jobs market is still failing to feed through to wage growth. In the prior month, average hourly earnings of all employees had recorded a rise of 0.3%.
Meanwhile, the nation’s unemployment rate unexpectedly remained unchanged at a 17-year low level of 4.1% in February, confounding market consensus for a fall to 4.0%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2323, with the EUR trading 0.07% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2286, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2249. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2347, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2371.
In absence of key macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors would look forward to the US monthly budget statement for February, due to release later in the day.
The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
UK’s Industrial Production Surged To A 13-Month High Level In January
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.31% against the USD and closed at 1.3848 on Friday, boosted by upbeat industrial production figures in the UK.
Data revealed that Britain's industrial production rebounded 1.3% on a monthly basis in January, rising by the most since December 2016, driven by the reopening of a key oil pipeline. However, the reading missed market expectations for an advance of 1.5%. In the prior month, industrial production had dropped 1.3%. Additionally, the nation's manufacturing production rose less-than-anticipated by 0.1% on a monthly basis in January, after recording a gain of 0.3% in the previous month and compared to market expectations for an increase of 0.2%.
On the other hand, the nation's construction output slid 3.4% on a monthly basis in January, dipping to its weakest since June 2012 and indicating that construction industry is undergoing a severe slump at the start of the year. Market participants had expected construction output to drop 0.5%, after recording a rise of 1.6% in the previous month. Further, the nation's total trade deficit widened less-than-estimated to £3.07 billion in January, following a revised deficit of £2.49 billion in the previous month, while markets were expecting the nation to post a deficit of £3.40 billion.
In other economic news, leading think tank, NIESR estimated that UK's gross domestic product (GDP) climbed 0.3% in the three months ended February, less than market consensus for an advance of 0.4%. In the November-January 2018 period, the NIESR had estimated that the nation's economy grew by a revised 0.4%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3859, with the GBP trading 0.08% higher against the USD from Friday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3806, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3752. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3901, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3942.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Japanese Yen Trading Higher In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.13% against the JPY and closed at 106.80 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 106.62, with the USD trading 0.17% lower against the JPY from Friday’s close.
The Japanese Yen gained ground against the USD, as political concerns surrounding Japan’s Finance Ministry increased demand for the safe-haven currency.
Data released overnight showed that Japan’s business survey index (BSI) of large manufacturing industries climbed 2.9% on a quarterly basis in the first three months of 2018. In the prior quarter, BSI of large manufacturing industries had recorded an increase of 9.7%.
The pair is expected to find support at 106.42, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.21. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 106.94, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.25.
The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Swiss Franc Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.07% against the CHF and closed at 0.9510 on Friday.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9499, with the USD trading 0.12% lower against the CHF from Friday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9482, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9466. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9521, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9544.
With no major macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.
The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Canada’s Unemployment Rate Surprisingly Declined In February
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.58% against the CAD and closed at 1.2829 on Friday.
The Canadian Dollar advanced against the USD on Friday, after Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 5.8% in February, defying market expectations for it to remain at 5.9%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2806, with the USD trading 0.18% lower against the CAD from Friday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2770, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2733. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2876, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2945.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2273; (P) 1.2303 (R1) 1.2334; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.2268 minor support. On the downside, break of 1.2268 will argue that fall from 1.2555 is likely resuming. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2154 support and below. On the upside, above 1.2445will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2555 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3792; (P) 1.3841; (R1) 1.3894; More....
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.3929 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is still expected in the pair. Break of 1.3711 will resume the decline from 1.4345 through 1.3651 resistance turned support. At this point, we'll look for strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4345 at 1.3429 to contain downside and bring rebound. However, break of 1.3929 minor resistance will the first sign of near term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.4144 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9486; (P) 0.9509; (R1) 0.9532; More...
At this point, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for further rebound. The head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 0.9254, h: 0.9186, rs: 0.9337) suggests near term reversal. Rise from 0.9186 should target 100% projection of 0.9186 to 0.9490 from 0.9337 at 0.9641 first. On the downside, break of 0.9337 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will be cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.29; (P) 106.66; (R1) 107.18; More...
USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 105.24 and intraday bias remains on the upside. Note again that bullish convergence condition is seen in 4 hour MACD. On the upside, decisive break 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next. But before that, another decline is still mildly in favor. Break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.














