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EURUSD - With the pair retaining its corrective pullback threats, more weakness is likely in the new week. On the upside, resistance comes in at 1.2350 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.2400 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.2450 level where a break will expose the 1.2500 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.2250 level where a violation will aim at the 1.2200 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.2150 level. Below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 1.2100. All in all, EURUSD faces further bear threats on correction.

Goldilocks is back at the table

The strong payrolls growth in February which swept past all expectations were tempered by softer-than-expected average hourly earnings (AHE) reading leaving the market with a bit of dilemma as we near March FOMC forward guidance. On the surface, the headline was strong enough to shift their dot plot need, but there remains the begging the question about the fuller inflation prospects.

So wage growth remains muted – and with this week’s CPI unlikely do indicate a significant uptick in inflation, investors are left mulling over what this all mean for interest rates and specifically should they continue to move higher amid signs that lower taxes and higher public spending will most certainly lift short-term growth. Despite the positive economic narratives, the tepid wage growth suggests the Feds will be in little rush to move into the four rate hike camp.

Trump’s trade agenda and the recent North Korea news continued to dot the weekend news flow.

The remarkable turn of events in North Korea has sent a wave of positivity through the region, but there remain many obstacles to overcome, but on the surface, any talk is a good talk between these political nemeses. Financial markets in South Korea have reacted positively to news of the meeting. The KOSPI and the WON improved cheered on by the prospects for the Tump -Kim meeting

On the tariff front, Australian Prime Minister Turnbull confirmed that Australia would be exempt from US steel and Aluminum tariffs.

Equity Markets

The best of both worlds for equity markets, with the economy in full swing but nary a sign of wage inflation. It doesn’t get much better than that for investors and at least for now have dampened the inflationary fears that weighed on investor sentiments in February.But when coupled with an easing in trade rhetoric and positive news from the Korean Peninsula, risk sentiment is powering higher.

Goldilocks returns at least for a day.

Oil Markets

Oil markets rallied sharply after the stellar US jobs reports which rocketed the S&P higher and in general sparked a wave of global risk-on trade. But oil traders are banking on the stronger than expected jobs reports to translate into higher oil product demand. Finally, oil bulls cheered on the Baker Hughes reports which indicated the number of oil drilling rigs fell by four to 796 last week.

Gold Markets

The markets are turning more neutral yet cognizant of upside risks. The US dollar, at least for now, is trading with a bit more swagger, Tumps trade and tariff rhetoric has eased, and with the US- North Korea meeting set to take place, investors are in a happier spot. With Goldilocks back at the table, at least for today, gold hedge appeal could be tempered near term.

Currency Markets

Japanese Yen

With positive risk sentiment gripping the markets and with USDJPY looking to squeeze a bit higher on the Goldilocks jobs report, positioning could take over. A good portion of the market remains short, but with risk sentiment looking very bubbly in early APAC, risk on could flush out some weaker hands sending USDJPY to the fundamental 107.30 level.

The Euro

Draghi, the master of illusion, has taken much of the top side momentum out of the Euro. The softer data flow and the overall dovish ECB take should cap strength over the near term.

The Australian Dollar

Lacklustre AHE but strong NFP favours the ‘goldilocks’ economy scenario so risk assets should remain bid which will underpin the Aussie dollar. Also, the AUD has a bit of a spring in its step after trim confirmed AUD tariff exclusion, but this was signalled last Thursday, so the Aussie dollar remains more of the risk play driven by external factors

The Malaysian Ringgit

Ultimately this risk on the environment will benefit the MYR, and while local assets are cheering on the prospects of improving North Korea -US relations. Currently, the market is caught between a stronger USDJPY and buoyant regional equity market with suggested we will trade within recent ranges.

The regional markets will closely monitor the progress of President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un summit as most certainly an easing of tension will be a boost to regional sentiment.

Oil prices rose after the US Non-farm payroll while being buffeted by buoyant risk sentiment and remain mildly supportive for the Ringgit.

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EUR/USD rebounded to 1.2445 last week but retreated sharply since then. However, downside is contained above 1.2268 minor support so far. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 1.2268 will argue that fall from 1.2555 is likely resuming. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2154 support and below. On the upside, above 1.2445will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2555 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It's still early to decide whether price action from 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive pattern. Reaction to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516 will give important clue to the underlying momentum.

USD/JPY recovered last week and turned into consolidation above 105.24. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, decisive break 107.67 resistance will indicate near term reversal. In such case, outlook will be turned bullish for 110.47 resistance next. But before that, another decline is still mildly in favor. Break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD stayed in consolidation above 1.3711 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias is neutral this week first and deeper fall is in favor. Break of 1.3711 will resume the decline from 1.4345 through 1.3651 resistance turned support. At this point, we'll look for strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4345 at 1.3429 to contain downside and bring rebound. However, break of 1.3929 minor resistance will the first sign of near term reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.4144 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1946 should at least be correcting the whole long term down trend form 2.1161 and should target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. It too early to tell if it's developing into a long term up trend. We'll monitor the upside momentum and reaction to 1.5466 to decide later.

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.9186 resumed last week by taking out 0.9490 resistance. The head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 0.9254, h: 0.9186, rs: 0.9337) suggests near term reversal. Initial bias remain son the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.9186 to 0.9490 from 0.9337 at 0.9641 first. On the downside, break of 0.9337 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, near term outlook will be cautiously bullish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Current development is raising the chance that it is completed. But there is no confirmation yet. Focus will now be back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add much credence to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

In the long term picture, at this point, the long term decline from 1.0342 is still in favor to extend lower to 0.8698 key support. But sustained break of above mentioned 0.9626 will turn focus back to 1.0037/0342 resistance zone.

AUD/USD's recovery from 0.7712 extended higher last week. The break of near term trend line resistance is taken as first sign of reversal. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside for 0.7892 minor resistsance Break there will affirm this bullish case and target 0.7988 and above. On the downside, below 0.7772 will turn bias to the downside for 0.7712. Break there will resume whole fall from 0.8135.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we're favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we'd anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage. But strong support should be seen between 0.4773 (2001 low) and 0.6008 (2008 low).

USD/CAD rose to 1.3000 last week but formed a short term top there and retreated. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for pull back to near term channel support (now at 1.2711). At this point, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3000 at 1.2712 to contain downside and bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.3000 will resume the medium term rally to 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the medium term bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.

In the longer term picture, 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048 remains a key support level to watch. As long as this level holds, we'll treat fall from 1.4689 as a correction and expect another rally through this level. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will turn favors to the case that rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is a three wave corrective move that's completed at 1.4689. And retest of 0.9056/9406 support zone could be seen in medium to long term.

GBP/JPY's recovery last week indicates short term bottoming at 144.97. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidation above there. In case of stronger rise, upside should be limited by 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78 to bring fall resumption. Break of 144.97 will extend the decline from 156.59 to 143.51 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, rejection from 55 month EEMA (now at 154.20) argues that medium term rebound from 122.36 might be completed. And, the corrective structure also carries some bearish implication today. Sustained break of 135.58 key support will likely bring retest of 122.36 low, with prospect of resuming the long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high).