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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8907; (P) 0.8937; (R1) 0.8955; More...

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook despite loss of upside momentum. With 0.8877 minor support intact, further rise is expected. Prior break of 0.8928 resistance indicates near term trend reversal. Decline from 0.9305 has completed at 0.8686 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305. Further rise should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8686 at 0.9069. Firm break there will target retest of 0.9305 high. On the downside, below 0.8877 minor support will dampen this bullish view and target 0.8771 support instead.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.65% against the CHF and closed at 0.9433.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9431, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9378, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9326. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9463, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9496.

Moving ahead, investors would focus on Switzerland’s unemployment rate data for February, scheduled to release in a while.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.07% against the CAD and closed at 1.2910.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada (BoC), at its March monetary policy meeting, opted to keep the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1.25%, as widely expected. In the post-meeting statement, the central bank noted that recent trade policy developments have clouded growth outlook for Canada as well as global economy. Nevertheless, the central bank described the current global growth momentum as positive and added that Canadian inflation was running close to its target, while wage growth has improved.

On the data front, Canada’s international merchandise trade deficit narrowed to C$1.91 billion in January, compared to a revised deficit of C$3.05 billion in the previous month. Markets were expecting the nation to record a trade deficit of C$2.50 billion.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2881, with the USD trading 0.22% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2832, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2784. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2965, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3050.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5807; (P) 1.5859; (R1) 1.5895; More....

EUR/AUD lost momentum after hitting 61.8% projection of 1.5258 to 1.5816 from 1.5626 at 1.5971. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Another rise is expected as long as 1.5823 minor support holds. Break of 1.5976 will target 100% projection at 1.6184 next. Nonetheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.5823 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 1.5626 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is still in progress for 1.6587 key resistance. At this point, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. But decisive break will confirm resumption of long term rise from 1.1602. On the downside, break of 1.5153 support is needed to indicate completion of the medium term rise. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1655; (P) 1.1683; (R1) 1.1736; More...

EUR/CHF's rebound extends to as high as 1.1712 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside for retesting 1.1832 high. At this point, we'll stay cautious strong resistance from there to bring another fall. Corrective pattern from 1.1832 might still have an attempt on 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372) before completion. On the downside, below 1.1584 minor support will target 1.1455 low again.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7786; (P) 0.7807; (R1) 0.7846; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7712. With 0.7892 minor resistance intact, near term outlook stays mildly bearish. On the downside, break of 0.7712 will extend the fall from 0.8135 towards 0.7500 key support level. However, break of 0.7892 will suggest that the pull back from 0.8135 is already completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.7988 and then 0.8135 again.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2857; (P) 1.2928; (R1) 1.2983; More....

USD/CAD is staying in consolidation below 1.3000 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 1.2757 resistance turned support holds. Another rise is still in favor. Above 1.3000 will extend the rise from 1.2246 to t 1.3065 fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 1.2757 will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.2450 support.

In the bigger picture, strong break of 1.2919 resistance adds much credence to the bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4589 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.60; (P) 105.91; (R1) 106.37; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. With 107.67 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish and further fall is expected. On the downside, break of 105.24 will resume larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. Firm break there will pave the way to 98.97 key support level and below. However, break of 107.67 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, stronger rebound would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 108.93) first.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9380; (P) 0.9411; (R1) 0.9465; More...

USD/CHF is staying in range of 0.9321/9490 and intraday bias remains on the downside. On the upside, break of 0.9490 will revive the case of near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In that case, outlook will be turned bullish. On the downside, break of 0.9321 will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9186. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.9186 first. Break will resume larger down trend to 0.9115 projection level.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9420 from 1.0037 at 0.9115. Break will target 161.8% projection at 0.8545. In any case, sustained trading above 55 day EMA is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3862; (P) 1.3887; (R1) 1.3928; More....

GBP/USD is still staying in the corrective pattern from 1.3711 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. Decline from 1.4345 is in favor to extend. Below 1.3711 will resume the fall from 1.4345 through 1.3651 resistance turned support. We'll look for strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4345 at 1.3429 to contain downside and bring rebound. This will be the preferred case as long as 1.4144 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.