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USD/CAD Edging Lower

USD/CAD is weakening after having broken hourly resistance at 1.2520 (17/01/2018 high). Resistance is now given at 1.2589 (01/01/2018). The technical structure indicates that further short-term weakness is expected.

In the longer term, the pair is trading between resistance point at 1.3805 (05/05/2017 high) and support at 1.2128 (18/06/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head lower. The pairs is trading below 200 DMA.

USD/CHF Pushing Higher

USD/CHF is strengthening. Hourly resistance is at 0.9449 (25/01/2018 high). Expected to show further short-term upside move.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Support at 0.9259 (24/08/2015 low) is attainable. Key support remains at 0.9072 (07/05/2015 low) while resistance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high) is distanced. The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY Recovering After Sharp Decline

USD/JPY is rising back following weakness and trades above 109. Hourly resistance remains at 111.50 (18/01/2018 high). The technical structure suggests further short-term upside moves.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 107.32 (08/09/2017 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 101.20 (09/11/2016 low).

GBP/USD Slight Ascent Following Free Fall

GBP/USD is bearish pressure pushed the pair at the range of 1.40. The technical structure suggests further potential downside move. Hourly support at 1.3916 (23/01/2018 low) is approaching.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline but the pair is now moving up to 2016 highs. A long-term support given at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low) and a strong resistance at 1.5018 (24/06/2016 high) are identified.

EUR/USD Bouncing Again

EUR/USD is trading mixed. The pair is now retracing and lies well above 1.2325 (17/01/2018 high). Hourly support is given at 1.2223 (23/01/2018 low). The technical structure suggests further short-term upside moves.

In the longer term, the momentum is turning largely positive. We favor a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2856 (15/10/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.1554 (08/11/2017 low).

Technical Outlook: GBPUSD – Further Downside While Risk-Off Rules, 1.40 To Ideally Cap Upticks

Recovery attempts from new two-week low at 1.3937, posted after strong fall in past two days, stays so far under broken 1.40 support which reverted to solid resistance (psychological barrier/broken Fibo 38.2% of 1.3457/1.4344 rally).

Pound is expected to remain under pressure on risk-off mode which emerged after strong fall in global stocks.

Close below 1.40 support on Monday was negative signal, with near-term techs now in bearish mode and supportive for further easing.

Completion of failure swing pattern on daily chart adds of growing bearish pressure.

Fresh bears would look for next target at 1.3900 (rising daily Kijun-sen/50% retracement of 1.3457/1.4344) and could extend towards 1.3800 support (rising 30 SMA/near Fibo 61.8%). Corrective actions should ideally stay capped under 1.40 handle, with extended upticks not ruled out and expected to stall under pivotal barrier at 1.4124 (broken 10SMA).

Res: 1.4000, 1.4025, 1.4043, 1.4091
Sup: 1.3937, 1.3900, 1.3850, 1.3800

GBP/USD: UK Services PMI

The Sterling fell sharply against the US Dollar, after the report by Markit on the UK services industry. The GBP/USD exchange rate decreased 24 base points or 0.17% to the 1.4123 mark and continued to decline.

Britain's economy revealed notably slower growth in January with the recent survey casting doubts on stronger investors' expectations that the Bank of England was about to raise rates in the following months. IHS Markit released its survey showing that the UK economic growth is likely to slow to 0.3% in the Q1, after a 0.5% gain in the last quarter of 2017. The weakening was mostly triggered by the country's dominants services industry, where activity growth decreased to the lowest level in 16 months of 53.0 in January.

EUR/USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

The EUR/USD currency pair was not exposed strongly to the influence of fundamentals on Monday. The Greenback weakened against the European single currency 7 base points to near the 1.2400 level.

Economic activity in the US services sector was the strongest in more than 12 years, supported by rising new orders, suggesting that the economy sustained the strong momentum in the beginning of the year. The ISM survey showed that its non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 59.9 in January, from 55.9 in the prior month. The US economy kept expanding even before the stimulus from a $1.5T tax cut program has begun to filter through. However, that is likely to cause some concerns that the country's economy could overheat.

USD/AUD: RBA Interest Rate Decision

The Australian retail sales data as well as the RBA interest rate statement added to the strength of the Aussie against the US Dollar. The first-mentioned report caused a 0.24% or 19 pips drop in the pair, followed by a 0.15% decline on the RBA release.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed that the country's retail sales eased more than anticipated in December, but still made a rebound in the final quarter of 2017. Retail sales fell 0.5% in the reported month, following an upwardly revised 1.3% increase registered previously. In the further release, the Reserve Bank of Australia stuck to its upbeat assessment of the country's economy, keeping the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%.

Technical Outlook: USDJPY Bounces Back Above 109 But Overall Outlook Remains Bearish

The pair bounces from session low at 108.45 on Tuesday, after extension of Monday’s strong fall threatened key near-term support at 108.28 (26 Jan low).

Strong bearish acceleration on Monday came after repeated failure to clear important double-Fibo barriers at 110.26/32 (Fibo 61.8% of 111.48/108.28 and Fibo 38.2% of 113.63/108.28) which heavily weighs on near-term action.

Fresh weakness was triggered by strong fall in global equities which boosted yen’s safe-haven appeal in fresh risk-off action.

Bounce off 108.45 low extended above 109 handle and is seen as hesitation ahead of 108.28 pivot but also as positioning for renewed attack at 108.28 target.

Falling 10SMA (109.25), which so far capped recovery attempts, along with Fibo 38.2% of 110.48/108.45 bear-leg, should ideally keep the upside limited, to keep immediate bears intact.

However, stronger upticks cannot be ruled out and expected to stall under the top of thick hourly cloud (109.84).

Overall outlook remains bearish and favors further weakness, with eventual break below 108.28 pivot to open psychological 108.00 support and unmask key med-term support at 107.31 (08 Sep low).

Alternative scenario requires firm break above 110.00 barrier (falling 20SMA) and cracked Fibo resistances at 110.26/32, to neutralize bears and shift focus higher.

Res: 109.31, 109.47, 109.70, 110.00
Sup: 109.00, 108.45, 108.28, 108.00