Sample Category Title

AUD/USD is ready to go even lower showing that downside pressures are still lively. Hourly resistance is given at a distance at 0.7897 (13/10/2017 high). Expected to show renewed pressures towards key support at 0.7535 (22/06/2017 low).

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD has failed to clear resistance indicating downside risk. Resistance at 1.2820 (07/11/2017 high) has been broken. Hourly support lies at 1.2667 (10/11/2017 low). Expected to show continued upside pressures.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.

USD/CHF's bullish breakout is ending after the pair exited declinng trendline. The technical structure indicates further downside risks. The pair has failed to hold consistently above the parity. If the pair heads towards 0.98, there might be even more downside pressures. The road would be wide-open for further decline.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY has broken short-term uptrend channel. Hourly support is now given at 111.89 (20/11/2017 low). Stronger support is located at a distance at 111.12 (20/09/2017 low). Expected to show further decline.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD has broken 1.3230 resistance indicate an extension of bullish momentum. Support is given at 1.3027 (06/10/2017 low). Expected to show continued increase towards stronger resistance at 1.3338 (13/10/2017 high).

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD is edging lower. Hourly resistance is located at 1.1878 (12/10/2017 high). Hourly support is given at a distance at 1.1554 (07/11/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term consolidation before heading higher towards resistance at 1.1878 ( 12/10/2017 high).

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

The euro has posted slight gains in the Wednesday session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1770, up 26% on the day. On the release front, the sole eurozone indicator is Consumer Confidence, which is expected to remain unchanged at -1 point. In the US, it’s a busy day, so we could see some movement from the pair during the North American session. The markets are expecting Core Durable Goods to slow to 0.4%, and unemployment claims to drop to 241 thousand. UoM Consumer Sentiment is forecast to soften to 98.2 points. As well, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its November policy meeting. On Thursday, Germany and the Eurozone release manufacturing PMI reports, and Germany will publish final GDP. The ECB will release the summary from its October policy meeting.

The political deadlock continues in Germany, as President Angela Merkel faces her toughest challenge since coming to power 12 years ago. With the Free Democratic Party pulling out of coalition talks on the weekend, Merkel appears unable to form a coalition government. Merkel has said she would rather hold another election than try to govern with a shaky minority government. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has urged the parties to redouble their efforts in order to reach an agreement, warning that another election would cause uncertainty in German as well as Europe. The crisis in the eurozone’s largest economy could paralyze the European Union, as Merkel has become the unofficial leader of the bloc. Euro-supporters such as French President Emmanuel Macron have ambitious plans to strengthen European integration, but this will have to wait until Merkel can straighten out her domestic challenges.

US housing indicators continue to beat expectations. On Monday, it was the turn of Existing Home Sales, which climbed to a 4-month high. On Friday, Building Permits and Housing Starts impressed the markets. Building Permits for single-family homes jumped to 1.30 million, above the estimate of 1.25 million. The annualized pace of 839,000 building permits in October was the fastest since September 2007. Housing Starts also sparkled, accelerating to 1.29 million, compared to an estimate of 1.19 million. The catalyst for the strong numbers were hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which caused massive damage in the southern part of the US. With rebuilding efforts well underway, construction numbers should remain strong in the fourth quarter.

EURJPY has fallen back down to the lower end of its 2-month range. The pair is in a bearish phase in the short-term but neutral in the medium term, trapped between 131.50 and 134.50 since late September.

The sharp drop from the November 15 high of 133.87 appears to have become exhausted and the market looks a little oversold. But since RSI has not quite reached below the 30 (oversold) line there is room for further weakness towards 131.50 and 131.16 at the range low and November 20 low. This zone is expected to offer solid support.

A move above 132.46 (November 20 high) would shift the focus back to the upside with scope to re-test the upper end of the range. Only a sustained move above 134.50 would bring about a resumption of the underlying uptrend that started back in April.

In the bigger picture, EURJPY is consolidating the uptrend and is likely to maintain its neutral stance as long as support at 131.50 holds. The near-term bearish phase appears to have lost downside momentum as RSI is now flat.

Spot Gold was modestly higher on Wednesday and extended recovery from the previous, hitting session high at $1286.

Bulls were so far unable to hold gains and repeating scenario Tuesday's scenario of quick pullback after hitting new highs.

The yellow metal remains underpinned by expectations of Fed rate hike in December, with today's focus being on release of minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, as investors are looking for more information of the pace of potential rate hike in December.

Today's bullish acceleration probed above hourly cloud top (1286) which also marks 50% retracement of $1296/$1274 fall, with sustained break here needed to confirm near-term bullish structure and open way for further recovery.

Broken 10SMA offers initial support at $1281 while stronger bearish signal could be expected on return below 20SMA ($1277).

Res: 1286, 1290, 1294, 1296
Sup: 1281, 1277, 1274, 1270

We can see some USD weakness in the last few sessions while stocks made another strong leg up, especially US markets with E-mini S&P500 trading around 2600 psychological level, which can be an important short-term resistance so we think price may come lower after five waves up within wave three or c. As such, reversal may come down from a new high, at the same time when DAX can accomplish a five wave rally within wave C of a corrective advance from Nov 15th. We see resistance at 13240 from where we may see a very sharp drop based on a higher degree EW cycle.

S&P500, 1H

German DAX, 1H