Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.17; (P) 112.43; (R1) 112.70; More...

USD/JPY's break of 111.88 indicates resumption of fall from 114.73. Intraday bias is back on the downside with focus on 111.64 support. Decisive break of 111.64 support will argue that whole rebound from 107.31 has completed. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 101.14 and below. On the upside, break of 112.71 minor resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 114.73 high.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is not completed yet. It should resume after corrective fall from 118.65 completes. Break of 114.49 resistance will likely resume the rise to 61.8% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 107.31 at 119.47 first. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 126.99. This will be the key level to decide whether long term up trend is resuming. However, firm break of 111.64 support will dampen this view and turn focus back to 107.31 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9893; (P) 0.9919; (R1) 0.9941; More....

No change in USD/CHF's outlook as it's staying in the corrective fall from 1.0337. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, firm break of 1.0037 resistance will extend the rise from 0.9420 and target 1.0342 high. However, sustained break of 0.9835 resistance turned support will argue that whole rebound form 0.9420 is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, USD/CHF should target 61.8% retracement of 0.9420 to 1.0037 at 0.9565 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could be a medium term up move and should target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. On the downside, break of 0.9736 support is now needed to indicate completion of the rise from 0.9420. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3208; (P) 1.3237; (R1) 1.3267; More....

GBP/USD's recovery continues today but it's still bounded in range of 1.3026/3337. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, recovery should be limited below 1.3337 resistance to bring fall resumption. Break of 1.3038 will now resume decline from 1.3651 to 1.2773 key support level. However, decisive break of 1.3337 will indicate that pull back from 1.3651 is completed and medium term rise from 1.1946 is resuming.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, GBP/USD hit strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. Current development is starting to favor that corrective rebound from 1.1946 low has completed at 1.3651. Decisive break of 1.2773 will confirm this bearish case and target a test on 1.1946 low next, with prospect of resuming the low term down trend. Nonetheless, break of 1.3320 resistance will restore the rise from 1.1946 for 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.

Dollar weakens in early US session after mixed economic data. Headline durable goods orders dropped -1.2% in October, much lower than expectation of 0.3% rise. Ex-transport orders rose 0.4%, in line with consensus. Initial jobless claims dropped -13k to 239k in the week ended November 18, slightly better than expectation of 241k. Four week moving average rose 1.25k to 239.75. Continuing claims rose 36k to 1.9m in the week ended November 11. The greenback is so far trading as the weakest major currency today as markets await FOMC minutes. Nonetheless, there is little chance for the minutes to give Dollar a lift. They will most likely just reaffirm the chance for a December Fed hike.

UK cut 2018 growth forecast, add GBP 3b for Brexit preparation

In UK, Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond delivered his Budget speech in Parliament today. The Office for Budget Responsibility lowered 2018 growth forecast to 1.4%, down from March projection at 1.6%. Regarding Brexit, Hammond said that "while we work to achieve this deep and special partnership, we are determined to ensure that the country is prepared for every possible outcome." And, in addition to the GBP 700m invested, Hammond announced to set aide another GBP 3b over the next two years for Brexit.

France, Italy and four others get EC warning on budget

In EU, European commission warned that the 2018 spending plans for France, Italy, Belgium, Austria, Portugal and Slovenia are "at risk of non-compliance" with EU rules. The commission emphasized that the budget plan for these counties "might result in a significant deviation from the adjustment paths towards the respective medium-term objective. The commission also urged a "broadly neutral fiscal stance" for the euro area. And, "member States with current account deficits or high external debt should seek to raise productivity, while Member States with current account surpluses should promote wage growth and foster investment and domestic demand,"

Elsewhere

Australia Westpac leading index rose 0.1% mom in October, construction work done rose 15.7% in Q3.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1714; (P) 1.1736 (R1) 1.1759; More....

EUR/USD recovers after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA again. But it's staying below 1.1860 and intraday bias stays neutral first. Near term outlook remains cautiously bullish with 1.1677 support intact. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1553 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. Above 1.1860 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.2091 high. However, break of 1.1677 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.1553 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we'd be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1373) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Economic Indicators Update

EUR/GBP - 0.8870

Original strategy  :

Sell at 0.8950, Target: 0.8820, Stop: 0.8990

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 0.8950, Target: 0.8820, Stop: 0.8990

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

 
As the single currency has remained under pressure after retreating from 0.9015 (last week’s high), adding credence to our view that top has possibly been formed there and bearishness remains for the fall from there to extend weakness to 0.8840, however, break of support at 0.8812 is needed to signal the rebound from 0.8733 has ended at 0.9015, bring subsequent fall towards 0.8791 support.

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro on recovery as 0.8950 should limit upside and bring another decline. Only above said resistance at 0.9015 would risk test of previous resistance at 0.9033 but only a breach of this level would signal an upside break of recent established broad range has occurred, then subsequent rise to 0.9070-75 would follow.

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.

EURUSD: The pair remains weak and vulnerable to the downside despite its price hesitation. Resistance comes in at 1.1800 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1850 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1900 level where a break will expose the 1.1950 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1700 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1650 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1600 level. Below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 1.1550. All in all, EURUSD faces further corrective pullback threats.

The Canadian dollar has ticked higher in the Wednesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2744, down 0.27% on the day. On the release front, it's a busy day, so we could see some movement from the pair during the North American session. The markets are expecting Core Durable Goods to slow to 0.4%, and unemployment claims to drop to 241 thousand. UoM Consumer Sentiment is forecast to soften to 98.2 points. As well, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its November policy meeting. On Thursday, Canada releases Core Retail Sales.

US housing indicators continue to impress the markets. On Monday, it was the turn of Existing Home Sales, which climbed to a 4-month high. On Friday, Building Permits and Housing Starts impressed the markets. Building Permits for single-family homes jumped to 1.30 million, above the estimate of 1.25 million. The annualized pace of 839,000 building permits in October was the fastest since September 2007. Housing Starts also sparkled, accelerating to 1.29 million, compared to an estimate of 1.19 million. The catalyst for the strong numbers were hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which caused massive damage in the southern part of the US. With rebuilding efforts well underway, construction numbers should remain strong in the fourth quarter.

The cross retested Tuesday's high at 0.8885 on Wednesday but failed to hold gains and fell back below daily Kijun-sen which also acts as solid barrier at 0.8877. No stronger upside action was seen after Tuesday's trading ended in long-legged Doji, signaling possible formation of reversal pattern on daily chart. Weakening momentum studies suggest limited upside and extended consolidation while Tuesday's low at 0.8841 holds. Underlying bears maintain downside risk as thickening daily cloud continues to weigh. Sustained break below 0.8841 would open way for bearish extension towards 0.8791 (07 Nov trough) for full retracement of 0.8791/0.9013 upleg. Conversely, close above daily Kijun-sen is seen as minimum requirement for recovery signal and possible extension towards daily cloud base (0.8920).

Res: 0.8877; 0.8886; 0.8920; 0.8953
Sup: 0.8854; 0.8841; 0.8811; 0.8791

Gold spot - XAU/USD is currently forming a bearish SHS pattern (head and shoulders) while still capped below the descending trendline. At this time we need to see if the retracement will reach the POC zone. The POC zone 1286.55-1289.58 (W L3, ATR pivot, historical double top/sellers) if reached could reject the price towards 1279 and below 1274.10 X cross (ATR + trendline) we could see a continuation towards 1266.53. Currently the price is consolidating and we could see a movement soon.

• H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)
• W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)
• D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)
• D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)
• D L4 - Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)
• PPR - Progressive Polynomial Channel
• POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

The euro has continued to recover against the U.S dollar, hitting 1.1773 during the European trading session. Dip-buyers came out in force from 1.1713 technical level, which denotes the 2015 price-high for the EURUSD. The EURUSD pair currently trades around the 1.1750 level, after giving back some intraday gains, during another tight-ranging trading session. Traders now await weekly jobless data from the U.S, and CORE Durable Goods Orders before the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

The EURUSD pair remains intraday bullish while trading above the key 1.1713 level. Further upside towards the 1.1773 and 1.1807 level remains possible if euros buyers can defend the 1.1713 level. Extended EURUSD resistance is found at the 1.1860 and 1.1910 levels.

Any loss of the 1.1713 technical level will likely see euro sellers target below the 1.1700 handle. Medium-term support zones are found at the 1.1680 and 1.1640 levels.