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USD/CHF declining trendline has halted progress. The technical structure indicates further downside risks. The pair has failed to hold consistently above the parity. If the pair heads towards 0.98, there might be even more downside pressures. The road would be wideopen for further decline.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY has broken short-term uptrend channel. Hourly support is now given at 111.89 (20/11/2017 low). Stronger support is located at a distance at 111.12 (20/09/2017 low). Expected to show further decline.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 99.02 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD has broken 1.3230 resistance indicate an extension of bullish momentum. Support is given at 1.3027 (06/10/2017 low). Expected to show continued increase.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline. Long-term support can be found at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low). Long-term resistance given around 1.35 is at stake and indicates a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD is consolidating. Hourly resistance is located at 1.1878 (12/10/2017 high). Hourly support is given at a distance at 1.1554 (07/11/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term consolidation before heading higher towards resistance at 1.1878 ( 12/10/2017 high).

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2252 (25/12/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

Spot Gold price is higher on Tuesday, recovering from low at $1274, posted after Monday's fall which marks the biggest one-day loss since late September.

Fast bearish acceleration was triggered after repeated rejection at the base of thickening daily cloud, which marks strong obstacle.

Investors are looking for clearer signal about the US monetary policy in coming months, as markets are expecting one more rate hike by the end of the year.

Another important factor for Gold was comment of US President Trump who put North Korea on a list of stated sponsoring terrorism, which could result in stronger safe-haven buying.

Immediate risk is expected to remain shifted lower while recovery stays capped by converged 10/100SMA's ($1280), while stronger recovery needs sustained break here to re-expose key barriers at $1290 (daily cloud base / 55SMA).

On the downside, cracked 55SMA still acts as valid support at $1277 and firm break here is needed to confirm negative near-term bias.

Res: 1280, 1284, 1290, 1296
Sup: 1277, 1274, 1270, 1263

The Turkish lira hit new all-time low against the dollar at 3.9775 on Tuesday, in extension of previous day's strong rally.

Persisting inflation risks and monetary policy uncertainty, along with Turkey's strained relations with the United States, keep lira under strong pressure that resulted in lira's 17% fall since September.

Strong bullish acceleration on Monday which eventually broke above the top of near-term congestion, signaled further upside and full retracement of 3.9414/3.3883 correction and further upside on break.

Fresh bulls need close above former USDTRY's record high at 3.9414 for confirmation that would open way towards psychological 4.00 barrier in coming sessions.

Former top at 3.9414 now acts as initial support, followed by session low at 3.9161, with deeper dips expected to hold above rising 10SMA (currently at 3.8834).

Res: 3.9775, 4.0000, 4.0500, 4.0720
Sup: 3.9414, 3.9161, 3.8834, 3.8448

EURUSD is still trading in a three-wave decline; with wave c) leading the way. Downside can be limited near the Fibonacci projection zone of 100.0, from where a new bounce higher can come in play.

EURUSD, 1H

Crude oil is displaying a nice rally away from 54.95 level, which could indicate more upside. We labeled blue waves one and two as finished and current intra-day recovery can be wave three in action. We may see high at 58.10 broken in sessions ahead.

Crude oil, 1H

AUD tumbles amid cautious RBA

The Australian dollar extended losses on Tuesday morning with AUD/USD testing once again the 0.7530 support area. The publication of the November RBA minutes showed, as expected, that the central bank maintained its dovish tone. In addition, the minutes revealed that the Reserve Bank was concerned about the job market outlook and persistent weakness in wage growth. Against such a backdrop, momentum is fading for the Aussie and sovereign rates are sliding. Moreover, spread between Australian and US treasuries reached a new bottom. The 2-y spread fell to 0.01%, while the 10-y year spread slid to 0.18%.

The monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the RBA suggests that the Aussie is not out of the wood yet. This should translate into further debasement for the Aussie. On the data front, it is going to be very quiet for the next couple of weeks. The RBA is holding its last meeting of the year on the 5th, while the third quarter GDP is due for release on the 6th. A break of the $0.75 threshold should open the road towards $0.7330 (low from May 9th).

Euro does not suffer much despite German political crisis

There is major political crisis that is happening now in Germany. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor is unable to build a majority within the Bundestag. The coalition that Merkel was trying to build with the liberals and the ecologists has failed. This is the first time since 1949 that this occurs.

The main reason why the collation failed was the migration issue. Liberals clearly didn’t want to pursue the current politics. Some voices now declare that the Liberal party is a “light far right party”. We recall that around 1.2 million migrants have been welcomed in Germany during 2015 and 2016. There is clear willingness for more borders controls in the political German landscape.

How this political issue can be solved? Actually, Germany could be called to vote again at the start of next year even though they just voted in September. Merkel is definitely in a difficult position.

Right now, the euro has not suffered from the ongoing political crisis. Yet, the euro is down from 1.18 to 1.17 since yesterday amid uncertainties. We believe the euro should continue to go down as the correlation with Germany is significant. Problems of the first European economy are also Eurozone’s problems.

The British pound is consolidating towards the top-end of its recent trading-range against the U.S dollar, in thin-market trading conditions. The GBPUSD pair currently trades around the 1.3240 level, with sellers unable to break-below the 1.3220 level, and buyers unable to close price-action above the 1.3268 technical level. The upcoming UK Inflation Report Hearing is the main risk event for the pair today, with the Bank of England likely to further raise interest rates if UK inflation continues to rise, while UK wage levels remain depressed.

The GBPUSD pair remains intraday bullish while holding above the 1.3220 technical level. Further upside towards the 1.3268 and 1.3307 levels still appears likely.
Should price-action decline below the 1.3220 level, sellers will likely target the 1.3200 and 1.368 support zones.

The U.S dollar has risen close to three quarters of one percent against the Japanese yen, hitting 112.70, as the pair recovers from 4-week trading lows. A stronger bid in U.S treasury yields and global stocks markets, have helped the pair gradually move higher. Thin market trading conditions, ahead of the U.S Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, have also helped to negate a strong downtrend emerging in the USDJPY pair. Traders now look to key U.S housing data, and a key-note speech from outgoing FED Chair Janet Yellen later today.

The USDJPY pair remains intraday bullish while trading above the 112.47 technical level. Further upside towards 112.80 and 113.06 resistance levels appears likely.

Should price decline back below the 112.47 level, sellers may target the 111.90 price-low, and the 111.60 support level.