Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8898; (P) 0.8932; (R1) 0.8954; More...

EUR/GBP was rejected below 0.9032 resistance and stays in range of 0.8732/9032. Intraday bias remains neutral first. With 0.9032 resistance intact, deeper decline is mildly in favor in the cross. Break of 0.8732 will resume the decline from 0.9305 and target 0.8303 key support level. However, on the upside, decisive break of 0.9032 will confirm completion of the decline from 0.9305. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.9305 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

USDCAD has been in a consolidation phase during the last two weeks. The market is soft and is trapped between the 50 and 200-day moving averages. Trend signals are weak and momentum is neutral.

The recent bullish bounce found resistance at the 50% Fibonacci of the decline from 1.3793 to 1.2061. Prices are currently pivoting around the 38.2% Fibonacci level in the mid-1.2700 handle. If the market can re-test the 50% Fibonacci (1.2922), prices would meet further resistance at a very key psychological level at 1.3000, near the 200-day MA. Rising above this area would shift the market’s focus to the 1.3500 level, bringing the 1.3793 peak into sight. From here the market would resume the longer-term uptrend.

A break below support at 1.2500 would set USDCAD on the path to re-test the September 8 low of 1.2061. From this point, an extension lower would confirm the resumption of the downtrend from 1.3793.

The bias is expected to remain neutral in the near-term. Only a move above 1.3000 would invalidate the broader bearish trend from 1.3793.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5476; (P) 1.5514; (R1) 1.5543; More....

EUR/AUD's rally resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 1.5623 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current medium term rally from 1.3624 should target 61.8% projection of 1.3624 to 1.5226 from 1.4949 at 1.5939 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.6551, which is close to 1.6587 key resistance. On the downside, break of 1.5483 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top (2015 high) has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. We'll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5226 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 1.6587 will resume long term rise from 1.1602 (2012 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1638; (P) 1.1663; (R1) 1.1679; More...

EUR/CHF's break of 1.1709 resistance confirms up trend resumption. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.1387 to 1.1709 from 1.1541 at 1.1740 first, and then 100% projection at 1.1863. On the downside, below 1.1638 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained well above 1.1541 support and bring up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1355 support holds. However, break of 1.1355 will indicate medium term topping. In that case, EUR/CHF should head back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.1123) and possibly below.

The Trump Administration is back in the spotlight with news of a report that Special counsel Robert Mueller's investigators have issued a subpoena to more than 12 officials in the Trump administration election campaign for documents related to Russia. According to the Wall Street Journal; Mueller's team issued the subpoena in mid-October, requesting documents and emails from more than a dozen campaign officials that include several keywords related to Russia. The subpoena does not compel testimony before a grand jury, but sources commented that Trump's campaign was surprised by the order after voluntarily cooperating with previous requests from Mueller's team. In fact, this is the first instance of Mueller ordering the Trump Administration to handover information. The news saw USD coming under pressure as Trump can ill-afford any more criticism of his leadership or, indeed, if Russia played a part in his election victory.

The news about the subpoena overshadowed the first legislative triumph for President Donald Trump as Republicans pushed a $1.5 trillion tax overhaul through the House on Thursday. But obstacles remain in the Senate, which is refining its own version of the legislation amid objections from key GOP senators.

The bill passed 227 vs 205, with 13 Republicans voting against the bill and no Democrats voting for it. Trump called the vote “a big step toward fulfilling our promise to deliver historic tax cuts for the American people by the end of the year.”

EURUSD is 0.35% higher in early Friday trading at around 1.1808.

USDJPY is 0.5% lower, currently trading around 112.52.

GBPUSD is 0.3% higher in early session trading at around 1.3230.

Gold is 0.33% higher, currently trading around $1,283.

WTI is little changed overnight, currently trading around $55.48.

Major data releases for today:

At 08:30 GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver a Keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress “Europe into a New Era – How to Seize the Opportunities” in Frankfurt, Germany.

At 13:30 GMT, the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce, will release several sets of data: Building Permits and Housing Starts (MoM) for October along with both Building Permits and Housing Starts Change for October. With the data sets all expected to post higher releases, this could result in USD buying. If the data is below expectations we can expect to see USD selling.

At 13:30 GMT, Statistics Canada will release CPI Core and CPI (MoM) for October along with CPI (YoY) for the same period. The annualized rate is forecast to come in at 1.4%, a decrease from the previous release of 1.6%. If the release is substantially different from forecast the markets will experience CAD volatility.

Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Window
    •    Time of formation: 24 April 2017
    •    Trend bias: Up

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Hammer
    •    Time of formation: 18 May 2017
    •    Trend bias: Up



EUR/JPY – 132.82




Although the single currency found support at 131.40 earlier this month and rebounded, as 133.89 capped euro’s upside and the pair has retreated, retaining our view that further consolidation below recent high of 134.50  (formed last month) would take place and mild downside bias remains for another retreat to 132.00, then test of said support at 131.40. Having said that, a daily close below latter level is needed to add credence to our view that top is possibly formed at 134.50, bring correction of recent upmove to 131.10, then test of the lower Kumo (now at 130.99), break there would provide confirmation, then subsequent fall to 130.40-50 would follow.

On the upside, whilst recovery to 133.40-45 cannot be ruled out, said resistance at 133.89 should cap upside and bring another retreat. Only a break of said resistance at 134.50 would abort and signal recent upmove has resumed for further gain to 135.00, however, overbought condition should limit upside to 136.00-10 and reckon 136.90-00 would hold from here, price should falter well below 138.45-50 (1.618 times extension of 109.49-124.10 measuring from 114.85), risk from there has increased for a much-needed correction to take place later.

Recommendation: Hold short entered at 133.70 for 131.70 with stop above 133.90.

On the weekly chart, euro’s rebound after finding support at 131.40 formed a doji star, suggesting consolidation would be seen, however, reckon upside would be limited to 133.89 resistance and last month’s high at 134.50 should remain intact, bring another retreat later, below said support at 131.40 would add credence to our view that a temporary top has possibly been formed at 134.50, bring retracement of recent rise to 130.90-00, then 130.20-25 but reckon downside would be limited to 129.37 support and previous support at 127.56 should remain intact.

On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 133.40-50 and said resistance at 133.89 should hold, bring another retreat. Above said resistance at 134.50 would signal recent upmove from 109.49 (2016 low) has resumed and extend gain to 135.00, then 136.00-10, however, reckon upside would be limited and 136.95-00 should hold, price should fatter below 138.45-50 (1.618 times extension of 109.49-124.10 measuring from 114.85), bring retreat later.

USD/CHF - 0.9918

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9923

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9917

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9909

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9884

Original strategy :

Sold at 0.9935, Target: 0.9835, Stop: 0.9970

Position : - Short at 0.9935

Target :  - 0.9835

Stop : - 0.9970

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 0.9935, Target: 0.9835, Stop: 0.9950

Position : - Short at 0.9935

Target :  - 0.9835

Stop : - 0.9950

Although the greenback staged a strong rebound after falling to 0.9846 earlier this week, dollar’s broad-based weakness should prevent sharp move from here and reckon 0.9945-50 would limit upside, bring retreat later, below 0.9900 would bring weakness to 0.9875-80 but break of latter level is needed do signal the rebound from 0.9846 has ended, bring retest of this level first. Once this level is penetrated, this would signal the erratic decline from 1.0038 top has resumed for at least a retracement of early upmove to previous resistance at 0.9837, break below there would encourage for subsequent decline towards 0.9795-00.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 0.9935. Above 0.9945-50 would defer and risk test of 0.9970-75 but price should alter below resistance at 0.9987, bring another decline later. 

GBP/USD - 1.3239

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.3217

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.3190

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.3174

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.3145

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.3100, Target: 1.3210, Stop: 1.3065

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.3180, Target: 1.3280, Stop: 1.3145

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the British pound has rallied after finding renewed buying interest just above support at 1.3134 and broke above indicated previous resistance at 1.3230, adding credence to our view that the erratic rise from 1.3039 is still in progress, hence mild upside bias remains for this move to extend gain to 1.3280-90, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited and another previous resistance at 1.3321 should remain intact, bring retreat later.

In view of this, we are still looking to buy cable on dips but at a higher level as 1.3180-90 should limit downside. Below 1.3170-75 would risk correction to 1.3150 but only break of said support at 1.3134 would abort and signal top is formed instead, bring weakness to 1.3100, then towards support at 1.3062.

EUR/USD - 1.1813

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1794

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1790

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1798

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1763

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.1745, Target: 1.1845, Stop: 1.1710

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.1790, Target: 1.1890, Stop: 1.1755

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has rebounded after continued finding support just above yesterday’s low at 1.1757, suggesting the pullback from 1.1861 (this week’s high) has ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for a retest of this level, however, break there is needed to confirm recent upmove from 1.1554 low has resumed and extend gain to previous resistance at 1.1880, then 1.1900-10.

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on dips as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1790) should limit downside and bring another rise. Only below said support at 1.1757 would abort and signal a temporary top has been formed, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.1720-25 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1638-1.1861) but reckon 1.1700 would limit downside and previous resistance at 1.1678 (now support) should remain intact. 

USD/JPY - 112.55

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 112.77

Kijun-Sen level                  : 112.86

Ichimoku cloud top             : 113.20

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 112.90

Original strategy  :

Bought at 112.60, stopped at break-even

Position :  - Long at 112.60

Target :  -

Stop : - 112.60

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Despite this week’s anticipated rebound to 113.33, as the greenback met renewed selling interest there and has dropped quite sharply today, dampening our near term bullishness and downside risk remains for the fall from 114.74 top to extend weakness to 112.26-30 (100% projection of 114.74-113.09 measuring from 113.91 and previous support) but loss of momentum should prevent sharp fall below 112.00-05, price should stay above 111.70, bring rebound later. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the  meantime. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 112.86) would bring recovery to 113.00-10 but only break of said resistance at 113.33 would suggest low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 113.60, however, price should falter well below resistance at 113.91.