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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.1% against the USD and closed at 0.7811.

LME Copper prices declined 0.7% or $49.5/MT to $6959.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 1.2% or $25.5/MT to $2133.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7820, with the AUD trading 0.12% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7799, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7778. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7838, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7856.

Moving ahead, investors will focus on Australia’s consumer price index for 3Q 2017, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2619; (P) 1.2639; (R1) 1.2665; More....

At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally. Current rebound from 1.2061 should extend to 1.2777 resistance first. Decisive break there will confirm medium term reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 next. On the downside, break of 1.2450 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4869 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Break of 1.2777 will further affirm this bullish case. That is, larger up trend from 0.9406 is not completed. And in that case, USD/CAD should target 1.3793 key resistance next. However, on the other hand, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

Dollar trades generally lower in quiet markets today. Economic data released this week so far are generally shrugged off by traders. The more important events are BoC and ECB meeting, as well as UK and US GDP. Waiting for the key events, traders seem to be spending their time on speculating who will US President Donald Trump nominate for the post of Fed chair. Current Fed chair Janet Yellen is still in the race and would provide status quo stability. But it's clear that Yellen is never a favorite of Trump. Fed Governor Jerome Powell is seen as the favorite by bookies, as he has knowledge of Fed and monetary policy. Stanford University economists John Taylor is so far the dark horse. Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and White House economic advisor Gary Cohn are out of the race already.

Speculations of Nov BoE hike cooled mildly

In UK, speculations of a November rate hike cooled mildly since a string of weaker than expected data, and some dovish comments from MPC members. Markets are now pricing in 78% chance of a 25bps hike in November, down from near 90% at the beginning of this month. The dilemma for BoE is that inflation has surged to 3% due to depreciation of Pound's exchange wage. But that hasn't really transferred into wage growth. And recent data shows that retail sales are faltering. And in the background, the deadlock of Brexit negotiation is still unresolved, and that would tie businesses' hands in investing. But still, we'd like to point out that a 25bps hike will just bring the Bank Rate back to pre-Brexit referendum level. Thereafter, BoE will wait till there's some significant progress in Brexit talks before acting again. Hike or not, Sterling could face some pressure against Dollar afterwards.

Talking about Brexit, UK Prime Minister Theresa May said that "important progress" was made at last week's EU summit. And, she had a "degree of confidence" of achieving sufficient progress to move to to trade talks by December. It's reported by some German newspaper, and then UK press, that May was tired, exhausted, and begged for help in last week's summit. But European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker rubbished those reports. He said that "I had an excellent working dinner with Theresa May. She was in good shape, she was noted tired, she was fighting, as is her duty, so everything for me was OK."

Japan PMI manufacturing dropped

In Japan, Nikkei continues to push higher today, riding on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's landslide victory in Sunday's snap election. At the time of writing, Nikkei is trading up 57pts, or 0.25%. Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.5 in October, down from 52.9, and missed expectation of 53.1. Nonetheless, that's still the 14th straight months of expansionary reading. Markit noted that "although still improving solidly, the Japanese manufacturing sector appeared to lose some momentum in October, as growth eased from September's four-month high." And, "softer expansions were seen for both output and new orders." The output component dropped to 52.6, down from 53.2. New orders dropped to 52.4, down from 53.4. Expectation on output also dropped to 57.5, down from 61.2.

Looking ahead

PMI data will be the main focuses today with Eurozone PMIs featured in European session. US will also release PMIs later today.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2619; (P) 1.2639; (R1) 1.2665; More....

At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally. Current rebound from 1.2061 should extend to 1.2777 resistance first. Decisive break there will confirm medium term reversal and target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 next. On the downside, break of 1.2450 support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4869 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Break of 1.2777 will further affirm this bullish case. That is, larger up trend from 0.9406 is not completed. And in that case, USD/CAD should target 1.3793 key resistance next. However, on the other hand, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

Economic Indicators Update

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.1750.

In economic news, data showed that the Euro-zone's flash consumer confidence index improved to a level of -1.0 in October, notching its highest level since April 2001, indicating that consumers continued to gain confidence as the region's economic recovery picks up further momentum. Markets had expected the index to advance to a level of -1.1, following a reading of -1.2 in the prior month.

Separately, the Bundesbank's monthly report indicated that German economic growth will maintain its strong momentum in the third quarter of 2017, driven by robust industrial orders and noted that industrial sector is likely to remain one of the bright spots for the economy. Further, it revealed that construction has probably made no further contribution to growth.

In the US, the Chicago Fed national activity index climbed to a level of 0.17 in September, compared to a revised reading of -0.37 in the previous month, while markets had anticipated for a rise to a level of -0.10.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1762, with the EUR trading 0.1% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1732, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1703. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1784, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1807.

Trading trend in the Euro today is expected to be determined by the release of preliminary Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for October across the Euro-zone, slated in a few hours. Moreover, the US flash Markit manufacturing and services PMIs, due to release later in the day, will pique significant amount of market attention.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.07% against the USD and closed at 1.3203, after the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, remained optimistic over Brexit talks, stating that she is “ambitious and positive” about UK's future with the European Union and added that constructive progress had been made in Brexit negotiations.

Meanwhile, data revealed that UK's CBI industrial trends total orders surprisingly fell to a level of -2.0 in October, against market consensus for a rise to a level of 9.0 and hitting its the lowest since November 2016. The CBI industrial trends total orders had recorded a level of 7.0 in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3218, with the GBP trading 0.11% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3175, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3132. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3244, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3270.

In absence of any macroeconomic releases in the UK today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic news.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

USD/CHF - 0.9854

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Up

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9847

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9857

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9841

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9801

Original strategy :

Buy at 0.9795, Target: 0.9895, Stop: 0.9760

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.9795, Target: 0.9895, Stop: 0.9760

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 0.9882 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.9815-20 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon support at 0.9796 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 0.9882 would add credence to our view that recent upmove from 0.9421 has resumed and bullishness remains for this move to extend headway to 0.9870 and possibly towards 0.9900, having said that, overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter below 0.9940-50, bring retreat later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy dollar again on pullback as support at 0.9796 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 0.9765-70 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk test of indicated support at 0.9730-37, however, break there is needed to provide confirmation, then further fall to previous support at 0.9705 would follow.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.36% against the JPY and closed at 113.40.

Macroeconomic data indicated that Japan's final leading economic index climbed to a level of 107.2 in August, revised higher from a level of 106.8 registered in the preliminary print. The index had recorded a reading of 105.2 in the previous month. Further, the nation's final coincident index rose more than initially estimated to a level of 117.7 in August, compared to a reading of 115.7 in the previous month, while the flash print had indicated an increase to a level of 117.6.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 113.35, with the USD trading marginally lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that Japan's flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI eased to a level of 52.5 in October, following a level of 52.9 in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 113.08, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.8. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.8, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.24.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GBP/USD - 1.3215

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.3210

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.3193

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.3165

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.3155

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.3285, Target: 1.3155, Stop: 1.3320

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.3285, Target: 1.3155, Stop: 1.3320

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable found renewed buying interest at 1.3158 yesterday and has risen again, adding credence to our view that a temporary low was formed at 1.3088 late last week, hence near term upside risk remains for this move to extend gain to 1.3240-45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3338-1.3088), however, price should falter below indicated resistance at 1.3287 and bring retreat later, below said support at 1.3158 would signal the rebound from 1.3088 has ended, brig weakness to 1.3125-30, break there would bring retest of said support at 1.3088, a drop below there would extend the fall from 1.3338 to 1.3050, then towards recent low at 1.3027.

In view of this, wee are looking to sell cable on further subsequent recovery as resistance at 1.3287 should limit upside and bring another decline later. Only above 1.3312 resistance would abort and extend further gain to said recent high at 1.3338 which is likely to hold from here.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly rose against the CHF and closed at 0.9850.

On the macro front, Switzerland’s total sight deposits inched up to a level of CHF578.6 billion in the week ended 20 October, from a level of CHF578.5 billion reported in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9845, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9824, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9802. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9874, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9902.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

EUR/USD - 1.1755

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1758

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1751

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1805

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1778

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the single currency broke below previous support at 1.1730, lac of follow through selling and the subsequent rebound from 1.1725 suggest further consolidation would take place and recovery to 1.1780-90 cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 1.1820-25 and price should falter well below resistance at 1.1858, bring further choppy trading later.

On the downside, below said support at 1.1725 would extend the fall from 1.1880 top to 1.1700 and possibly towards indicated previous support at 1.1669 but break of latter level is needed to retain bearishness and extend further subsequent decline to 1.1640-45 first. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.