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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2096; (P) 1.2255; (R1) 1.2385; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for next long term fibonacci level at 1.2048. Downside momentum as seen in daily MACD is picking up again. Firm break of 1.2048 will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% projection of 1.3793 to 1.2412 from 1.2777 at 1.1924 next. On the upside, above 1.2335 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2662 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.2777 resistance will indicate reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.3793 key resistance. However, sustained break of 1.2048 will dampen this view and carry larger bearish implications and bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR marginally rose against the USD and closed at 1.1925.

On the data front, Germany's seasonally adjusted factory orders unexpectedly dropped 0.7% on a monthly basis in July, defying market expectations for an advance of 0.2%. In the previous month, factory orders had gained by a revised 0.9%. Additionally, the nation's Markit construction PMI dropped to a level of 54.9 in August, after recording a level of 55.8 in the prior month.

The US Dollar declined against a basket of currencies, after the Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer, surprisingly announced his resignation months before his term was due to end.

However, losses in the greenback were trimmed, after the US President, Donald Trump and top Democrats forged a deal to pass an extension of the debt limit for around three months.

Separately, macroeconomic data indicated that the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI advanced less-than-expected to a level of 55.3 in August, compared to a reading of 53.9 in the previous month, while markets were anticipating for a rise to a level of 55.5. Moreover, the nation's trade deficit advanced to $43.7 billion in July, while investors had envisaged the nation's trade deficit to rise to a level $44.7 billion. In the previous month, the nation had posted a revised deficit of $43.5 billion.

Other economic data showed that the US final Markit services PMI climbed less than initially estimated to a level of 56.0 in August, while the preliminary figures had indicated an increase to a level of 56.9. In the previous month, the PMI had registered a level of 54.7. Also, the nation's mortgage applications rebounded 3.3% in the week ended 01 September, after recording a drop of 2.3% in the prior week.

Meanwhile, the Fed's Beige Book report showed that the US economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace in July through mid-August, but signs of an acceleration in inflation remained slight. Also, it reported scant wage pressures, modest to moderate wage growth and worker shortages in numerous industries. Also, business contacts raised concerns about a prolonged slowdown in the auto industry.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1925, with the EUR trading flat against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1904, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1883. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1948, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1971.

Moving ahead, traders will eye the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting, scheduled later in the day, to get clarity on the central bank's plans of tapering its bond-purchasing programme. Moreover, final reading on the Euro-zone's 2Q GDP as well as Germany's industrial production data for July, will be on investors' radar. Separately, the US initial jobless claims data, set to release later in the day, will also attract market attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP marginally rose against the USD and closed at 1.3048.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3043, with the GBP trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3014, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2985. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3077, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3111.

Looking forward, investors will focus on UK’s Halifax house prices data for August, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7969; (P) 0.7994; (R1) 0.8026; More...

AUD/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 0.8065 and intraday bias stays neutral first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.8065 will resume the medium term rise and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8087) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.53% against the JPY and closed at 109.20.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 109.10, with the USD trading 0.09% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.57, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.03. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.52, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.93.

Going ahead, market participants will look forward to Japan’s final GDP numbers for 2Q 2017 and trade balance (BOP basis) data for July, slated to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.22% against the CHF and closed at 0.9560.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9563, with the USD trading a tad higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9529, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9496. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9595, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9628.

With no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment will be governed by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1897; (P) 1.1923 (R1) 1.1944; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook as consolidation from 1.2069 continues. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Below 1.1822 will bring deeper fall. But after all, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1661 holds. Break of 1.2069 will extend larger rise from 1.0339 to next key fibonacci level at 1.2516. Nonetheless, break of 1.1661 will bring much lengthier consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1774) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it's developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD - 1.1918

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1925

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1929

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1909

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1905

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.1980, Target: 1.1880, Stop: 1.2015

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.1980, Target: 1.1880, Stop: 1.2015

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The single currency has remained confined within near term established range and further sideways trading is in store, whilst gain to 1.1950-55 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 1.1980 and bring another decline later. Below 1.1885-90 would bring weakness to 1.1850, break there would signal the rebound from 1.1823 has ended, then test of this level would follow, break there would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.2070 earlier and extend the fall from there to 1.1815-18 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1662-1.2070), then 1.1790-00 but downside should be limited to previous support at 1.1773. 

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro again on subsequent recovery as 1.1980 resistance should limit upside. Only a firm break above said resistance at 1.1980 would abort and signal the fall from 1.2070 has ended at 1.1823, bring further gain to 1.2000 and possibly towards 1.2025-30.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 1.06% against the CAD and closed at 1.2236.

The Canadian Dollar surged against the USD, after the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised investors with its second interest rate rise in three months.

The BoC, at its latest monetary policy meeting, raised its benchmark interest rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, on the heels of robust economic data that supported the central bank’s view that growth in Canada is becoming more broadly-based and self-sustaining. However, the BoC indicated that its appetite for further tightening may be curbed by a rising domestic currency and sluggish price pressures.

In other economic news, Canada’s international merchandise trade deficit fell more-than-expected to C$3.04 billion in July, from a revised deficit of C$3.76 billion in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2234, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2115, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1996. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2384, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2534.

Ahead in the day, market participants will keep a close watch on Canada’s building permits for July followed by Ivey PMI for August.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3013; (P) 1.3047; (R1) 1.3077; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.2773 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.3267 resistance. Break will target 1.3444 key resistance level next. Price actions from 1.1946 are still seen as a corrective pattern. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.3444 to limit upside to bring larger down trend reversal eventually. On the downside, below 1.2908 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2773.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.