Sample Category Title

Price is going down after the false breakout above the third warning line (WL3) of the former descending pitchfork. Has ignored the 0.7484 static support (resistance turned into support) and now is going down, a retest of the WL3 will bring us a perfect selling opportunity.

Price rallies and extends the latest gains, you could see that is very close to hit the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork, where he could find temporary support. Has increased aggressively, ignoring the USDX's drop, is trading much above the 0.9634 broken resistance.

A valid breakout above the median line (ml) will confirm a further increase, this scenario could take shape only if the US data will come in better later.

The currency pair decreased today and is trying to correct after the yesterday's impressive rally, is trading in the red also because is still under massive selling pressure. Remains to see how will react after the United States and Canadian data will be released.

You should be careful because the economic figures will bring life on the currency market, we may have a high volatility on this pair and you don't want to suffer a heavy loss.

The United States Advance GDP may increase by 2.5% i the second quarter, more versus the 1.4% in Q1, while the Advance GDP Price Index could increase by 1.3%, less compared to the 1.9% in the previous reading period. The Employment Cost Index is expected to increase by 0.6% in Q2, less versus the 0.8% in Q1, while the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment could climb from 93.1 to 93.2 points. The greenback needs a strong support from the US economy to be able to resume the yesterday's rebound.

Price rebounded in the yesterday's session and invalidated the breakdown below the 1.2460 long term support and below the confluence formed by the warning line (wl4) with the lower median line (lml) of the black descending pitchfork. Has slipped lower today and awaits the economic data, could increase further if the US numbers will impress.

Is trading right below the 1.2450 psychological level and could come down to retest the support levels, only a rejection from the mentioned downside obstacles will signal a reversal.

You can see that we had a false breakdown below from the black descending pitchfork, but the failure to reach the lower median line (lml) of the blue descending pitchfork and the lower median line (LML) of the major (red) descending pitchfork could send the rate much higher again, but unfortunately will be driven by the fundamental factors.

EUR/USD - 1.1745

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency found support at 1.1650 and has recovered, suggesting further recovery to 1.1755-60 cannot be ruled out, however, break of this week’s high at 1.1777 is needed to signal recent upmove has once again resumed and extend gain to 1.1784-85 (50% projection of 1.1370-1.1712 measuring from 1.1613). then 1.1800 but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.1820-25 (61.8% projection), risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

As near term outlook is mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 1.1700 would bring test of said support at 1.1650 but break there is needed to signal a temporary top is possibly formed, bring further weakness towards support at 1.1613, having said that, price should stay well above previous resistance at 1.1583 (now support), bring another rise later.

USD/JPY - 111.00

Original strategy  :

Sold at 111.45, Target: 110.45, Stop: 111.75

Position :  - Short at 111.45

Target :  - 110.45

Stop : - 111.75

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 111.45, Target: 110.45, Stop: 111.75

Position :  - Short at 111.45

Target :  - 110.45

Stop : - 111.75

Although the greenback staged a rebound from 110.78 to 111.71, the subsequent retreat has retained our bearishness for a retest of this week’s low at 110.62, however, break there is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend further weakness to 110.30-35 but reckon 110.00-05 would hold from here.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 111.45. Above said resistance at 111.71 would defer and prolong choppy trading, however, price should still falter below said resistance at 112.20, bring retreat later.

• Another major blow for Trump made traders angry
• French GDP matched the forecast and the euro moved higher

Over in Europe, the French GDP data brought more light for the Eurozone's economy. The problem child of the Eurozone is no longer a problem child, in fact, it has grown up and is living up to the expectations. The GDP number matched the forecast of 0.5% and this would stem the rally for the euro further. However, the overall focus in the market is on a much bigger picture which has taken over every single headline.

Trump had another fresh blow and this one is really an ugly one. The Senate did what Trump was not expecting, the repeal of Obamacare was blocked. It appears that the Obama Care has become a nightmare for Trump and no good news for the markets as well. The ability of Trump to deliver on his so many promises such as tax and stimulus packages are really shattered. This is going to have a negative impact on the markets as the trump trade would wind up even further. It will also bring more bleeding for the dollar which is already bruised badly.

So the trade would be to go heavy against the Trump trade and that is what most investors would focus on. Let's just say that without those stimulus packages and the tax reforms, we could say good bye to the Trump dream. The GDP growth of 3 percent or higher which he promised is not going to see the daylight anytime soon.

The only card which is left for President Trump to play is perhaps the debt ceiling and he may have some chance to twist the arms of others to get what he wants. The other option is that he just moves on from here and admit defeat.

The only element which could support the dollar today is the US advance GDP data and the bar is set high. The forecast is 2.5% while the previous reading was at 1.4%.

If the repealing of Obamacare is bad news for the dollar, it brings fresh fuel for the gold rally. We do think that maybe after a small pullback in the gold price, the path of least resistance would remain skewed to the upside. The Fed would have to be very careful in terms of their current strategy.

The CAC index has posted sharp losses in the Friday session. The CAC is currently at 12,116.00, down 1.33% on the day. On the release front, it's a busy day for French indicators. Consumer spending came in at -0.8%, missing the estimate of -0.3%. On the inflation front, Preliminary CPI declined 0.3%, just above the forecast of -0.4%. This marked the indicator's weakest reading since January. There was better news from Flash GDP, which improved to 0.5% in the second quarter, matching the forecast. This was the strongest quarter of growth since Q1 in 2016. Later in the day, the US releases Advance GDP, with the estimate standing at 2.5%. If GDP is not within expectations, we could see some volatility from French stock markets.

It's become an all-too-familiar pattern out of Washington – trouble for the White House has translated into losses on global stock markets, as higher political risk has made investors jittery. It was déjà vu on Thursday, as President's struggling healthcare bill gasped its final breath as the bill was defeated in the Senate after three Republican lawmakers joined the Democrats and voted against the bill. This is another setback for President Trump, who has been unable to get Congress to pass any significant legislation, despite the Republicans controlling both the House and the Senate. Trump will now be able to focus on other issues such as tax reform, but investors are skeptical as to whether the President will have the support he needs in Congress to pass major legislation.

With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 1.25% at this week's policy meeting, the markets focused on the rate statement, as investors looked for clues about future rate moves. The statement was cautiously optimistic in tone, with policymakers saying that the economy was growing at a moderate pace and that the labor market remained strong. The statement made note of low inflation, but said that the Fed expected the economy to continue to expand. Another key issue on the Fed's plate is the $4.2 trillion balance sheet. The rate statement said that the Fed plans to taper asset purchases 'relatively soon', which is a likely nod at September as the start date. This would involve the Fed tapering its purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage securities, with an initial taper likely of $10 billion/month. Although the Fed continues to talk about another rate hike in 2017, investors remain skeptical. The rate statement did not change many minds, as the odds of rate increase in December stand at 47%, according to the CME Group.

Overnight, the Bank of Japan released the summary of opinions from its July policy meeting. The summary is released ahead of the minutes, and outlines the individual views of BoJ policymakers. It was very interesting to see that some officials expressed a desire to wind down their ultra-loose stimulus program somewhat. One opinion was that the Bank should reduce its annual purchases of JGBs to 45 trillion JPY, from 80 trillion currently. Another indicated the BoJ should place more emphasis on financial stability and thus, it should abolish yield-curve control altogether. Finally, a third view was that the Bank's target level of 10-year JGB yields of 'around zero percent' should not be interpreted too strictly, implying officials should be more tolerant of yields rising a bit higher than 0%.

The yen did not really react to these points, perhaps because market participants were not at all convinced the Bank will actually reduce its stimulus anytime soon. Even though we hold the same view given very subdued inflation, we will monitor incoming comments from BoJ officials very carefully. Any further signals in the foreseeable future that the 'hawkish' camp among the BoJ may be growing larger, could prove positive for the yen.

EUR/JPY traded lower yesterday after it hit resistance slightly below 130.70 (R1), the upper bound of the sideways range that has been containing the price action since the 6th of July. Given that the rate remains within that range, we maintain the view that the short-term outlook is flat for now. Having said that, given that yesterday's slide started after the pair tested the upper bound of the sideways path, it could continue lower for a while. Now, the pair is testing the 129.50 (S1) support line, where a decisive dip could open the way towards the lower bound of the range, at 128.60 (S2). Zooming out to the longer-term timeframes, we see that EUR/JPY is still trading above the prior downside resistance line drawn from the peaks of June 2015. As such, although the short-term path is to the sideways, we still consider the broader one to be positive.

Dollar rebounds somewhat ahead of GDP data

The US dollar recovered somewhat yesterday, ahead of today's 1st estimate of GDP for Q2. The forecast is for US economic growth to have accelerated notably, something supported by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. We believe these data will be closely watched, as they may prove critical for market expectations regarding the timing of the next Fed rate hike.

If growth regains momentum as anticipated, that would confirm the Fed's view that the slowdown in Q1 was only transitory, and is likely to increase speculation regarding another rate hike this year. Something like that could help the dollar recover some more of its latest losses. That said though, even in that case we think that the currency's short-term outlook could remain negative. We believe that a strong rebound in inflation is needed before rate-hike expectations rise materially and help the dollar reverse its latest downtrend.

USD/CAD traded higher yesterday after it hit support at 1.2415 (S2) and then, it emerged above the 1.2525 (S1) line. The price structure still suggests a downtrend but for now, we see the likelihood for yesterday's rebound to continue a bit more. Accelerating US GDP combined with a flat growth rate in Canada, later in the day, could prove the trigger for the continuation of yesterday's corrective wave. A break above 1.2615 (R1) would confirm the case and may pave the way for extensions towards the next resistance of 1.2700 (R2).

As for the rest of today's highlights:

During the European morning, Germany's preliminary CPI data for July will be in focus. The forecast is for the nation's inflation rate to have ticked down. Even though such a decline could reverse some of the euro's latest gains, given that Germany does not report a core CPI rate, we believe investors will focus primarily on Eurozone's core CPI print due out Monday in order to gauge when and how the ECB may act next. From Sweden, we get GDP data for Q2 and expectations are for growth to have accelerated notably from the previous quarter, which could support SEK. We also get the nation's retail sales for June.

From Canada, as we already noted, we get GDP data for May and expectations are for an unchanged rate of growth. If that is indeed the case, the reaction in CAD may be limited.

We have only one speaker on the agenda: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.

EUR/JPY

Support: 129.50 (S1), 128.60 (S2), 128.00 (S3)

Resistance: 130.70 (R1), 131.60 (R2), 132.20 (R3)

USD/CAD

Support: 1.2525 (S1), 1.2415 (S2), 1.2300 (S3)

Resistance: 1.2615 (R1), 1.2700 (R2), 1.2770 (R3)

The DAX index remains under pressure in the Friday session. In the European session, the DAX is at 12,125, down 0.79% on the day. On the release front, German Preliminary CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%. Later in the day, the US releases Advance GDP, with the estimate standing at 2.5%. If GDP is not within expectations, we could see some volatility from the German stock markets.

The German economy continues to impress, powered by strong global demand for German products and solid domestic demand. Consumers continue to give a thumbs-up to the economy, as underscored by GfK German Consumer Climate. The indicator strengthened for a fourth straight month, improving to 10.8 in the July report. This edged above the estimate of 10.7 points. Importantly, strong consumer confidence has translated into increased consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. However, the fly in the ointment remains inflation, which is stuck at low levels. The lack of inflation is a pressing concern for ECB policymakers, and there is little chance that the bank will end its quantitative easing program before December, if inflation levels don’t move upwards.

Global stock markets remain jittery as political risk in Washington continues to intensify. On Thursday, Trump’s troubled healthcare bill gasped its last breath, as the bill was defeated in the Senate after three Republican lawmakers joined the Democrats and voted against the bill. This is another setback for President Trump, who has been unable to get Congress to pass any significant legislation, despite the Republicans controlling both the House and the Senate. Trump will now focus on other issues such as tax reform, but investors are skeptical as to whether the President will have better luck with other bills.

With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 1.25% at this week’s policy meeting, attention shifted to the rate statement, as investors looked for clues about future rate moves. The statement was cautiously optimistic in tone, with policymakers saying that the economy was growing at a moderate pace and that the labor market remained strong. The statement made note of low inflation, but said that the Fed expected the economy to continue to expand. Another key issue on the Fed’s plate is the $4.2 trillion balance sheet. The rate statement said that the Fed plans to taper asset purchases “relatively soon”, which is a likely nod at September as the start date. This would involve the Fed tapering its purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage securities, with an initial taper likely of $10 billion/month. Although the Fed continues to talk about another rate hike in 2017, investors remain skeptical. The rate statement did not change many minds, as the odds of rate increase in December stand at 47%, according to the CME Group.

Notes/Observations

Senate 'skinny repeal' bill fails; GOP dealt stiff blow in Senate's bid to repeal 'Obamacare' (Republican Senators McCain, Murkowski and Collins all voted against the amendment)

European Q2 GDP coming in better-than-expected (France, German , Sweden YoY beat)

Overnight

Asia:

Japan Jun Jobless Rate matched lowest rate since Jun 1994 ( 2.8% 3.0%e); Job-To-Applicant Ratio saw its 4th month of improvement and highest since 1974 (1.51 v 1.50e)

Japan Jun Overall Household Spending registered its 1st rise in 16 months and largest increase since Aug 2015) Y/Y: (+2.3% v +0.5%e)

Japan Jun National CPI rose for the 6th straight month in June but failed to gain momentum (Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e; CPI Ex Fresh Food (Core) Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e; CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy (Core-core) Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.1%e

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Summary of Opinions for the July 19-20 policy meeting reiterates CPI likely to approach 2% around FY19 (in-line with new timeline). Reiterated that no additional easing was necessary as price momentum had been maintained

South Korea Jun Industrial Production M/M: -0.2% v +1.9%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +1.3%e - China FX Regulator SAFE: Will safeguard and increase value of forex reserves; Will crackdown on 'forex irregularities', including underground banks

Europe:

July GfK Consumer Confidence: -12 v -11e

UK Home Sec Rudd: EU citizens will be still allowed to come to the UK to live and work after Brexit as long as they register with Home Office

Chancellor of Exchequer Hammond (Fin Min) said to seek a two phase Brexit starting with an "off the shelf" transition period. Believes the two phases should end by 2022 and does not believe there was enough time for bespoke deal to be negotiated before April 2019

Americas:

Speaker Ryan, Maj Leader McConnell and Sec Mnuchin release joint statement on tax reform; plan to move it through committee in the autumn

Fed nominee Quarles: Do not support the adoption of the Taylor rule to guide monetary policy

Economic Calendar

(NL) Netherland July Producer Confidence Index: 6.6 v 7.2 prior

(FR) France Q2 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.6%e

(NO) Norway Jun Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel M/M: -0.6% v +1.4% prior

(FR) France July Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e

(FR) France July Preliminary EU Harmonized CPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%

(FR) France Jun Consumer Spending M/M: -0.8% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 1.0%e

(ES) Spain Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.0%e

(ES) Spain July Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e

(ES) Spain July Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -1.2% v -1.3%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6%e

(DE) Germany July CPI Saxony M/M: 0.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7% prior

(CH) Swiss July KOF Leading Indicator: 106.8 v 106.0e

(TR) Turkey July Economic Confidence: 103.4 v 98.9 prior

(AT) Austria Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.5% prior

(SE) Sweden Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 2.7%e

(DE) Germany July CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5% prior

(DE) Germany July CPI Hesse M/M: 0.4% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9% prior

(DE) Germany July CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.4% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.4% prior

(AT) Austria July Manufacturing PMI: 60.0 v 60.7 prior (19th month of expansion)

(NO) Norway July Unemployment Rate: 2.8% v 2.8%e

(TW) Taiwan Q2 Preliminary GDP Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.2%e

(DE) Germany July CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.4% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.6% prior

(PT) Portugal July Consumer Confidence: 1.1 v 0.8 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: 2.2 v 2.1 prior

(EU) Euro Zone July Business Climate Indicator: 1.05 v 1.14e ; Consumer Confidence: -1.7 v -1.7e

(DE) Germany July CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.4% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6% prior

Fixed Income Issuance:

(IN) India sold total INR150B in 2024, 2027, 2034 and 2046 bonds

(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €6.25B vs. €5.25-6.25B indicated range in 5-year and 10-year BTP Bonds

Sold €4.0B vs €3.5-4.0B indicated in new 0.90% Aug 2022 BTP; Avg Yield: 0.88% v 0.83% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.34x v 1.28x prior

Sold €2.25B vs €1.75-2.25B indicated in 2.2% Aug 2027 BTP; Avg Yield: 2.16% v 2.16% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.71x v 1.39x prior

(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €1.5B vs. €1.0-1.5B indicated range in Oct 2024 CCTeu (Floating Rate Note); Avg Yield 0.77% v 0.83% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.65x v 1.63x prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -1.1% at 378, FTSE -0.7% at 7391, DAX -0.8% at 12112, CAC-40 -1.4% at 5113, IBEX-35 -0.8% at 10518, FTSE MIB -1.0% at 21417, SMI -0.7% at 8959, S&P 500 Futures -0.3%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade lower after another heavy bout of earnings, with the negative tone set by disappointing results from Amazon overnight. This morning key banking names reported, with good results out of Credit Suisse and BNP Paribas, while Barclays shares were in focus after charges related to its divestment of its African Unit, as well as provisions for miss selling PPI. Share of French Auto manufacturer Renault trades sharply lower after strong H1 results, but an affirmation of guidance disappointing the market. In Germany Adidas outperforms after raising outlook, and reporting strong prelim results. Looking ahead, notable earners include Loews, and Dana Hlds.

Equities

Consumer discretionary [Adidas [ADS.DE] +9% (Prelim results, raises outlook), Kering [KER.FR] -2% (Earnings), Essilor [EI.FR] -3.8% (Earnings), Air France [AF.FR] +0.9% (Earnings)]

Industrials: [Renault [RNO.FR] -6.2% (Earnings), Air Liquide [AI.FR] -2.4%, Safran [SAF.FR] -0.4% (Earnings), OHL [OHL.ES] -9% (Earnings)]

Financials: [Barclays [BARC.UK] +0.3% (Earnings), Credit Suisse [CSGN.CH] +1.9% (Earnings), UBS [UBSG.CH] -3.9% (Earnings)]

Speakers

Chancellor of Exchequer Hammond (Fin Min): Brexit transition could take up to three years, length to be determined by the facts

Ireland PM Varadkar said to be pushing for Irish Sea to become the post Brexit border with the UK. Warned UK PM May that her proposal for Irish Border was unworkable and would jeopardize Northern Ireland peace process

South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Kganyago: Worst is behind on the growth situation; inflation outlook broadly balanced. CPI forecasts showed marked improvement but would not hesitate to reverse rates if inflation worsened

US Senate rejected the 'skinny' Obamacare repeal (as expected ). Republican Senators McCain, Murkowski and Collins voted against the amendment

Russia said to have ordered the US to reduce its diplomatic staff in the country to 455 in retaliation for more US sanctions (Staff number will reflect the same level as Russia diplomats in Washington)

Japan PM Abe's Adviser Nakahara: Japan should adopt a policy mix of fiscal and monetary instruments under a new BoJ chief. Govt should spend ¥100T on infrastructure projects by issuing 60-year bonds the next decade and have the BoJ buy some of them through the market

China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS): To increase CNY currency (Yuan) Reference Rates release; effective July 31st (5 times vs. 2 times prior per day)

Currencies

USD was trying to muster more consolidation in the wake of its recent weakness. The spat of better European GDP and inflation data was giving the greenback some headwinds. A batch of European Q2 GDP came in better-than-expected with France, German, Sweden YoY readings all beating expectations

The SEK currency was the session outperformer following its GDP performance. The Kroner shaking off recent political events and firmed against the Euro. EUR/SEK moving from 9.59 to under 9.52 following the GDP beat.

Dealers noted that CHF currency weakness had been the main market theme this week as the SNB remained the lone dove central bank in Europe as its appeared to be drifting away from the stance of most other G10 central banks. USD/CHF above the 0.97 level while EUR/USD was edging closer towards the 1.14 level for its highest reading since the floor was removed back in Jan 2015

Fixed Income

Bund futures trade at 161.70 down 48 ticks extending its drop after the latest round of German regional CPI readings. Resistance lies near the 162.10 level followed by 162.75. A break of the 160.00 support level could see lows target 159.25 followed by 157.50.

Gilt futures trade at 126.20 lower by 18 ticks as global stock indices slide. Price finds key support at the 125.42 support level. An acceleration lower could test the 122.88 region. Resistance remains the noted 126.51 region, followed by 127.50.

Friday's liquidity report showed use of the marginal lending facility fell to €225M from €1.2B prior.

Corporate issuance saw $26B come to market via 4 issuers headlined by AT&T $22.5B -7part senior unsecured offering and American Express $2.25B senior unsecured note offering. This week's issuance is at $36.4B. For the week ending July 26th Lipper US fund flows reported IG funds net inflows $2.3B bringing YTD inflows to $77.5B, High yield funds reported outflows of $20.8M bringing YTD outflows to $6.7B.

Looking Ahead

(BE) Belgium July CPI M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior

(MX) Mexico Jun YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v 381.7B prior

05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR650M in 2029, 2033 and 2046 I/L bonds

06:00 (DE) Germany July Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.6% prior

06:00 (DE) Germany July Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.5% prior

06:00 (PT) Portugal Jun Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior

06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.3% prior

06:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined £2.05B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £0.5B and £1.0B respectively)

06:30 (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave 1-Week Auction rate unchanged at 9.00%

06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

07:00 (BR) Brazil July FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: -0.6%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: -1.6%e v -0.8% prior

07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves

08:00 (ZA) South Africa Jun Budget Balance (ZAR): +21.9Be v -21.2B prior

08:00 (BR) Brazil Jun National Unemployment Rate: 13.3%e v 13.3% prior

08:00 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces upcoming Bond issuance

08:30 (US) Q2 Advance GDP Annualized Q/Q: 2.5%e v 1.4% prior; Personal Consumption: 2.9%e v 1.1% prior (**Note: Revisions: GDP revised from 2014-16; reference yr remains 2009)

08:30 (US) Q2 Advance GDP Price Index: 1.3%e v 1.9% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.7%e v 2.0% prior

08:30 (US) Q2 Employment Cost Index (ECI): 0.6%e v 0.8% prior

08:30 (CA) Canada May GDP M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 3.3% prior

09:00 (CL) Chile Jun Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.9% prior; Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.2%e v 0.1% prior

09:00 (CL) Chile Jun Total Copper Production: No est v 469.2K tons prior

09:30 (BR) Brazil Jun Primary Budget Balance (BRL): -20.0Be v -30.8B prior; Nominal Budget Balance: -54.6 v -67.0B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 48.5%e v 48.1% prior

10:00 (US) July Final University of Michigan Confidence: 93.1e v 93.1 prelim

11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close

13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data

13:20 (US) Fed's Kashkari (dove, FOMC voter) speaks at Townhall Event