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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD marginally rose against the JPY and closed at 111.19.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.06, with the USD trading 0.12% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

The Japanese Yen gained ground against the USD, after Japan's unemployment rate fell more-than-expected to 2.8% in June, as job availability improved further, boosting optimism over the health of the nation's labour market. In the past month, the nation's unemployment rate had registered a reading of 3.1%, while market participants had expected it to fall to 3.0%. Meanwhile, the nation's national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% on an annual basis in June, at par with market expectations. In the prior month, the CPI had registered a similar rise.

Another set of data revealed that Japan's seasonally adjusted retail trade rebounded 0.2% in June, compared to a fall of 1.6% in the previous month. Markets were anticipating retail trade to advance 0.4%. Moreover, the nation's large retailers' sales registered an unexpected rise of 0.2% in June, defying market consensus for a fall of 0.1% and following decline of 0.6% in the prior month.

Separately, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) summary of opinions report from its July meeting showed that policymakers discussed repeated delays in meeting the central bank's inflation target and that it could undermine the BoJ's credibility. Also, they called for an in-depth discussion on whether it was appropriate to continue buying exchange-traded funds.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.66, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.25. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.59, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.11.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 1.37% against the CHF and closed at 0.9645.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9701, with the USD trading 0.58% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9554, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9408. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9784, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9868.

Moving ahead, Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator data for July, due to release in a few hours, will be on investors’ radar.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.79% against the CAD and closed at 1.2551.

On the macro front, Canada's CFIB business barometer index fell to a level of 60.7 in July, after recording a level of 60.9 in the preceding month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2552, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2452, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2352. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2614, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2676.

This afternoon will bring a crucial Canadian release, namely the gross domestic product (GDP) data for May.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1184; (P) 1.1229; (R1) 1.1310; More...

EUR/CHF surges to as high as 1.1362 so far and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally is starting 161.8% projection of 1.0652 to 1.0986 from 1.0830 at 1.1370. Break there will target 200% projection at 1.1498 next. On the downside, below 1.1245 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But downside of retreat should be contained well above 1.1087 to bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.1198 key resistance confirms resumption of the long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015. In such case, EUR/CHF could eventually head back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.0986 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8900; (P) 0.8927; (R1) 0.8962; More

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8994 continues. Downside of retreat should be contained by 0.8828 minor support to bring another rally. Break of 0.8994 will extend the whole rise from 0.8312 towards 0.9304 high. here is no clear sign of up trend resumption yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304 to limit upside and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it is finished yet. But in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside and bring rebound. Whole up trend from 0.6935 is expected to resume after consolidation from 0.9304 completes.

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.70 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.05 %, Hang Seng declined 0.60 %, ASX 200 lost 1.50 %
• Commodities: Gold at $1258 (-0.15 %), Silver at $16.50 (-0.40 %), WTI Oil at $48.90 (-0.30 %), Brent Oil at $51.35 (-0.30 %)
• Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.30, UK 10-year yield at 1.20, German 10-year yield at 0.53

News & Data:

• Australia PPI q/q 0.5 % vs 0.6 % expected
• Australia PPI y/y 1.7 % vs 1.3 % previous
• Japan CPI 0.4 % vs 0.4 % expected
• Japan Unemployment Rate 2.8 % vs 3.0 % expected
• Japan Retail Sales y/y 2.1 % vs 2.3 % expected
• Japan Household Spending m/m 1.5 % vs -0.1 % expected
• Japan Household Spending y/y 2.3 % vs 0.6 % expected
• Asian shares pull back after U.S. techs knocked off highs – RTRS

Markets Update:

The US Dollar recovered overnight against most other major currency pairs. Risk appetite decreased, with stocks declining and the Japanese Yen catching a bid.

The focus of traders was on the Swiss Franc. The CHF pairs had a large move in the Asian session, with no fundamental reason behind it. USD/CHF rallied to a high of 0.9720, while EUR/CHF made it to 1.1360. There were rumours of the SNB being active in the market earlier this week.

EUR/USD consolidated in a 1.1670-90 range overnight. Key support is now seen at 1.1620, where the pair should run into decent demand. Meanwhile, GBP/USD failed to sustain momentum above 1.31 and reached a low of 1.3060 overnight.

USD/JPY suffered from the risk-off sentiment and fell to 110.90. Support is seen at 110.80 and 110.20, while resistance lies at 111.30 and 111.70.

The commodity currencies declined as well. AUD/USD reached a low of 0.7950. While the outlook remains positive, the pair is somewhat overbought in the short-term and could see another test of 0.79 soon.

Upcoming Events:

• 07:45 BST – French CPI
• 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
• 13:00 BST – German CPI
• 13:30 BST – US GDP
• 13:30 BST – Canadian GDP
• 15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4588; (P) 1.4630; (R1) 1.4696; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as it's bounded in range of 1.4421/4777. At this point, we're still favoring the case that correction from 1.5226 could have completed with three waves down to 1.4421 already. Therefore, another rally is expected in the cross. Break of 1.4777 will turn bias to the upside for 1.5073 resistance first. Break there will indicate resumption of whole rise from 1.3624. However, break of 1.4221 will invalidate our view and extend the decline from 1.5226 to 61.8% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4236.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the fall from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, further downside acceleration will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.80; (P) 145.68; (R1) 146.24; More

GBP/JPY's recovery from 144.01 quickly lost momentum and intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the upside, break of 147.76/148.42 key resistance zone will resume larger rebound from 122.36. On the downside, break of 144.01 will extend the sideway pattern from 148.20 with another fall back to 135.58/65 support zone.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 122.36 is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. In case the sideway pattern from 148.42 extends, we'd be looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside.

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action...

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails ... essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

We typically search for lower-timeframe confirmation between the M15 and H1 timeframes, since most of our higher-timeframe areas begin with the H4. Stops are usually placed 1-3 pips beyond confirming structures.

EUR/USD

During the course of yesterday's segment, the EUR/USD underwent a rather aggressive downside correction from a H4 resistance level seen at 1.1755. Likely influenced by the daily channel resistance line extended from the high 1.1263 and a weekly resistance level seen at 1.1759 (we missed this weekly level yesterday), the single currency managed to run through the 1.17 handle and cross swords with the H4 mid-level barrier at 1.1650 going into the closing bell.

According to weekly structure, price could stretch down as low as the support area seen at 1.1533-1.1278. On the daily timeframe, nonetheless, the next downside target is seen a little closer at 1.1615 (a support level). Therefore, a H4 close beyond 1.1650 is not necessarily an indication to short!

Our suggestions: As price is nearing a daily support right now, our team is reluctant to sell this market. By the same token, buying the pair would also be a risky move, in our opinion, given where both the weekly and daily candles are trading from at the moment (see above). On that note, remaining flat may very well be the better path to take today.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures q/q at 1.30pm, FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 6.20pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GBP/USD

Strong sellers came into the market yesterday after price shook hands with a H4 mid-level resistance at 1.3150. The approach to this barrier, as we highlighted in Thursday's report, was a nice-looking H4 AB=CD bearish formation which terminated at exactly 1.3150 (see blue arrows). We did not take this trade as we were looking for price to connect with the daily supply seen above this line at 1.3278-1.3179 (converges with a daily channel resistance line drawn from the high1.2774).

Moving forward, we can see that weekly price is currently trading back within the walls of supply at 1.3120-1.2957, and daily action is now seen challenging the top edge of a support area coming in at 1.3058-1.2979. Over on the H4 chart, the pair is hovering above the mid-level number 1.3050.

Our suggestions: At current prices, similar to the EUR/USD, we have conflicting signals in this market. A buy would place one against potential weekly sellers, whereas a sell would have you shorting into a daily support area.

We would, nonetheless, still be interested in selling from the daily supply base mentioned above at 1.3278-1.3179, given the potential AB=CD bearish pattern (green arrows) that completes within the supply, and the aforesaid converging daily channel resistance line.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures q/q at 1.30pm, FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 6.20pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.3278-1.3179 ([waiting for a H4 bear candle to form – preferably a full, or near-full-bodied candle – before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's wick).

AUD/USD

Coming in from the top this morning, the weekly timeframe shows that price came within ten pips of connecting with a major resistance line at 0.8075 yesterday, before selling off. Assuming that the bears remain in a dominant position here, this could lead to price trading as far down as the support area seen at 0.7849-0.7752. Turning our attention to the daily candles, the Quasimodo resistance at 0.8030 has managed to hold firm which could force the unit down to demand at 0.7874-0.7922.

Sliding across to the H4 timeframe, price is now seen challenging a support at 0.7963, after driving through the nearby psychological band at 0.80. As you can see, this support also fuses nicely with a trendline support taken from the high 0.7987, a nearby mid-level support at 0.7950 and also a 61.8% Fib support at 0.7950 drawn from the low 0.7877.

Our suggestions: While H4 price is seen holding steady above 0.7963 right now, both the weekly and daily charts suggest further selling may be on the cards. In view of this, despite the surrounding H4 confluence, we are reluctant to buy this market at this time.

With longs out of the question, what about shorts? Well, a close below the 0.9550 neighborhood would likely open the trapdoor down to the 0.79 handle. However, seeing as how the top edge of the current daily demand is sited at 0.7922, there's a good chance 0.79 may not be challenged!

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures q/q at 1.30pm, FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 6.20pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/JPY

For those who read Thursday's report, you may recall that our team placed a pending buy order at 110.77. As you can see, the order came within a pip of being filled before the market turned in our desired direction! Well done to any of our readers who managed to get on board with this one.

Despite yesterday's movement, there's been little change in the overall structure of this market, hence the daily indecision candle recently printed. Weekly price continues to range between supply at 115.50-113.85 and demand at 108.13-108.95. In addition to this, daily flow is also still seen sandwiched between support coming in at 110.76 and resistance at 111.91.

Our suggestions: Personally, there is very little that interests us at the moment. Stop-loss orders have likely all been squeezed below 111 and the buy orders from the H4 Quasimodo support at 110.76/June's opening level at 110.83 have also likely been consumed. Why not sell then? Good question! The simple reason we are not willing sellers here is due to the daily support at 110.76! Given its history, it is very difficult to judge whether this level is on the verge of giving way or not. It is just not worth the risk, in our humble opinion.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures q/q at 1.30pm, FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 6.20pm GMT+1

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CAD

In recent trading, we've seen the current weekly candle begin to chalk in a fairly substantial buying tail. Should this market remain bid today and end the week closing back above the nearby weekly support level at 1.2538, this may suggest that the bulls could be attempting to make a play here. As you can see from the daily chart, the recent advance was helped by demand pegged at 1.2303-1.2423, which has consequently now placed the pair within striking distance of a broken Quasimodo line coming in at 1.2592.

Thursday's advance saw H4 action run through offers at the 1.25 handle and connect with the mid-level resistance at 1.2550 going into the closing bell. Until 1.2550 is consumed, it'll be difficult for the unit to attack the aforesaid daily broken Quasimodo line.

Our suggestions: This pair has been entrenched within a substantial downtrend for almost two months now. As such, yesterday's bounce to the upside may only be just that: a bounce! Even if the weekly candle closes back above the weekly support level this week, we would need to see both the current daily broken Quasimodo line as well as the daily resistance area at 1.2654-1.2734 taken out, before we become willing buyers.

We feel that the daily broken Quasimodo line at 1.2592, coupled with the nearby 1.26 handle, will likely hold this market lower today, therefore a trade from here is an option. Waiting for additional confirmation, however, is strongly advised, since if weekly buyers do kick into action from the current weekly support, being on the wrong side of this move would be a rather painful experience!

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures q/q at 1.30pm, FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 6.20pm. Canadian growth data at 1.30pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.26 region ([waiting for a H4 bear candle to form – preferably a full, or near-full-bodied candle – before pulling the trigger is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's wick).

USD/CHF

A stronger-than-expected bounce has been seen from the weekly support area at 0.9443-0.9515, consequently forcing daily action to challenge supply at 0.9738-0.9691. This area also happens to converge with a daily channel resistance extended from the high 0.9808 and a daily 38.2% Fib resistance at 0.9693 taken from the high 1.0099.

Although weekly price looks bull strong at the moment, the confluence surrounding the daily supply zone, coupled with H4 price reacting so well off of a minor trendline resistance extended from the low 0.9675 seen positioned just above 0.97, strongly suggests that sellers may make an appearance.

Our suggestions: We have entered short at 0.9694 and placed the stop above the current daily supply at 0.9740, with an overall target objective set at 0.9546: a daily support level. Should the trade come to fruition, this will net over three times our initial risk.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures q/q at 1.30pm, FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 6.20pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.9694 ([live] stop loss: 0.9740).

DOW 30

US equities recorded a third consecutive bull candle on Thursday, reaching an all-time high of 21778 on the day. With both the weekly and daily charts showing room for further buying, we are watching for H4 price to pullback and test the 50.0% support value at 21640 extended from the low 21484 for a possible long trade. The reason we like this level is due to it converging closely with two trendline supports – one taken from the low 21273 and the other taken from a high at 21677 (blue area).

Our suggestions: While we expect a bounce to be seen from the aforesaid blue zone, we would not feel comfortable placing pending orders here, since the area is small and therefore susceptible to a fakeout. With that in mind, waiting for a H4 bull candle to form (preferably a full-bodied candle) would be ideal since this would show buyer intent.

Data points to consider: US Advance GDP figures q/q at 1.30pm, FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 6.20pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watch for H4 price to retest 21640 ([waiting for a full, or near-full-bodied H4 bull candle to form following the retest is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GOLD

In recent trading, the yellow metal topped at a high of 1265.2 and retested daily support at 1258.9, which for the time being is holding firm. Should this level remain in play, the next area of interest on the H4 chart can be seen at 1269.8 (resistance), followed closely by supply at 1281.1-1275.4.

With daily price remaining afloat above support and weekly flow showing room to extend north as far as the area comprised of two Fibonacci extensions 161.8/127.2% at 1312.2/1284.3 taken from the low 1188.1 (green zone), we would not really feel comfortable selling at the H4 resistance mentioned above at 1269.8. The H4 supply above on the other hand, is interesting. Although it equally boasts little higher-timeframe structure, it does have potential for a bounce. Encased within the area is a H4 AB=CD (blue arrows) 161.8% Fib ext. at 1278.4 drawn from the low 1243.6, and a H4 78.6% Fib resistance at 1276.5 taken from the high 1296.0.

Our suggestions: Despite the confluence, we would strongly recommend waiting for additional candle confirmation to form from the current H4 supply, before pulling the trigger, as we are effectively trading against higher-timeframe flow here.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1281.1-1275.4 ([waiting for a full, or near-full-bodied H4 bear candle to form is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's wick).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.44; (P) 130.01; (R1) 130.48; More...

No change in EUR/JPY;s outlook as consolidation from 130.76 is still unfolding. Another fall could be seen but downside should be contained by 127.43 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 122.39 to 130.76 at 127.56) and bring rebound. Above 130.76 will extend the larger rally to next key fibonacci level at 134.20.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds.