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USD/CAD Losing Momentum

USD/CAD dropped a little today because is still under massive selling pressure, but most likely will find a strong support in the upcoming days and will start a rebound. Technically, we should have a bounce back on the short term after the massive drop.

Price extends the sell-off as the USDX could slide further, could approach and reach the 1.2460 major static support, where he may find strong support again. A failure to reach the lower median line (lml) will signal an oversold, this situation will send the rate much higher in the upcoming period.

EUR/GBP Still Bullish

The EUR/GBP drops a little after the impressive rally, but maintains a bullish bias despite the minor correction. Is trading near 0.8930 level, much below the 0.8993 yesterday's high, the Euro lost significant ground versus its rivals as the Euro-zone data have disappointed in the morning.

The Euro-zone Flash Services PMI remains steady at the 55.4, but has come below the 55.5 estimate, while the Flash Manufacturing PMI decreased from 57.4 points to 56.8 points in July, even if the estimate was 57.3 points.

Moreover the German Flash Services PMI decreased from 54.0 points to 53.5 points in July, even if the traders have expected to see an increase to 54.4 points, while the Flash Manufacturing PMI plunged from 59.6 to 58.3, much below the 59.1 estimate, signalling that the expansion has slowed down aggressively.

French Flash Services PMI was reported at 55.9 points, much below the 56.6 estimate and below the 56.9 in the former reading period, has received support from Flash Manufacturing PMI, which has increased from 54.8 to 55.4 points, beating the 54.6 estimate.

Price is trading in the red and retreats after the upside momentum, but don't worry because the perspective remains bullish on the Daily chart after the valid breakout from the extended sideways movement and above the warning line (wl2).

The next upside target will be at the 50% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line), could also be attracted by the upper median line (UML) of the major ascending pitchfork and by the third warning line (wl3) in the upcoming period.

Technically, should increase further as long as is located above the median line (ML) of the major ascending pitchfork, could approach the 0.9226 major static resistance, where he could find strong resistance again.

DAX Drops as German Manufacturing PMI Slows

The DAX index has started the week with losses. In Monday's European session, the DAX is trading at 12,190.00, down 0.40% on the day. On the release front, German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs softened in July and missed expectations. On Tuesday, Germany will release Ifo Business Climate.

The new trading week started on a sour note, as Eurozone and German manufacturing PMIs both in July and missed expectations. Still, the soft numbers are unlikely to weigh on the markets, as the PMIs continue to point to expansion in the German and eurozone manufacturing sectors. A stronger global economy has resulted in increased demand for European exports, and domestic consumer consumption has also boosted the manufacturing industry. The German economy continues to perform well in 2017, and this has helped boost the eurozone economy, which is showing stronger growth and lower unemployment. The German finance ministry sounded upbeat on Thursday, saying that "the current picture of economic indicators suggests that the economic upswing continued vigorously in the second quarter". GDP expanded at a strong clip of 0.6% in the first quarter, and Q2 is expected to post another gain of 0.6%. The economy received a thumbs-up from the IMF, which has raised its growth projections to 1.8% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018. The fly in the ointment has been inflation, as both Germany and the eurozone continue to struggle with inflation levels well below the ECB's inflation target of 2%. German policymakers have long argued that the German economy needs higher interest rates. However, the ECB has to also look after eurozone members who are not doing as well as Germany, and has insisted that it will not withdraw stimulus until inflation in the eurozone moves closer to the bank's inflation target.

There were no surprises from the ECB last week, as policymakers maintained interest rates at 0.00% and the bank's asset-purchase scheme (QE) at EUR 60 billion/month. The ECB has said that it will maintain QE until December "or beyond, if necessary". There had been speculation that the ECB might remove that "wiggle room" phrase, but the bank did not make any changes – perhaps Draghi was being careful not to provide the markets with an excuse to rush on euros, which occurred in June after Draghi left open the door to tapering QE prior to December.

With no news in the rate statement, the markets focused on the ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference. Draghi sounded upbeat about the eurozone economy, noting there were signs of "unquestionable improvement" in the eurozone economy. Draghi acknowledged that inflation remains stubbornly low, and said that it was a question of time until the stronger economic conditions pushed inflation to higher levels. As for monetary policy, Draghi said the bank had not set an exact time for revisiting any changes to the current accommodative policy, but added that the ECB would review policy in September. These comments did not seem to break any new ground, but were perceived as hawkish by the markets and boosted the euro on Thursday.

Daily Technical Analysis: USDCHF

The USDCHF had a bearish momentum last week bottomed at 0.9438. We have a bearish pin bar as you can see on my daily chart below, indicates that price is ready to continue the bearish run after a rejection to move higher. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 0.0.9400 – 0.9350 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 0.9500 – 0.9550. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but overall I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and any upside pullback should be seen as a good opportunity to sell.

Daily Technical Analysis: USDJPY

The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum last week, broke below the daily EMA 200 and 111.45 key support as you can see on my daily chart below. This fact gives us further confirmation of bearish continuation scenario after formed double top formation and bearish pin bar at 114.50 as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 110.25/00 and the major trend line support located around 119.00/50 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 111.45. A clear break back above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear. Overall I remain neutral.

Daily Technical Analysis: GBPUSD

The GBPUSD was corrected lower last week bottomed at 1.2932 but still unable to break below the trend line support as you can see on my daily chart below. The bearish pin bar scenario remains valid, but need a clear break below the trend line support and 1.2935 key support to continue the bearish scenario testing 1.2810/00 or lower. On the upside, 1.3100 remains a key resistance at this phase. A clear break above that resistance would reactivate my bullish mode targeting 1.3350 area.

Daily Technical Analysis: EURUSD

The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum last week, topped at 1.1682. Price closed above weekly EMA 200, suggests further potential bullish scenario. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 1.1712 (2015 high). A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.1875 (2010 low) before targeting 1.2000 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.1650. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.1600 – 1.1580 region but overall I remain bullish and any downside pullback should be seen as a good opportunity to buy.

CAD/USD: Retail Sales

The Canadian Dollar advanced against the Greenback as Friday's retail sales report showed better-than-expected figures. Following the data release, the USD/CAD currency pair marked a sharp decline, falling 0.24% to 1.2572. Statistics Canada reported that the country's retail sales rose for the third consecutive month in May, surging 0.6% to a record-high of C$48.9B, which was well above expectations for a 0.3% gain. An increase was mainly supported by higher sales of motor vehicles and parts. Moreover, the Bank of Canada, after making the first rate hike in seven years earlier in the month, is expected to make one more rate increase in October, as the strong figures confirmed healthy economic growth.

EUR/USD Analysis: Rebounds Near 1.1681

An early Monday's morning showed that the EUR/USD stopped the surge that was triggered by a speech delivered by Mario Draghi last Thursday. The point, at which the pair made a u-turn, represents a reaction high of a three month long ascending channel. Taking into account how easily the Euro fell through the 20-hour SMA and the monthly R2 at 1.1657, allows assuming that it will not be stopped by the 55-hour SMA as well. The closest barrier that has a chance to slow down the drop is the weekly PP at 1.1594 that will be additionally backed up by the 100-hour SMA. Nevertheless, traders should take into account that a release of a number of fundamental data today and tomorrow might either accelerate the fall, or facilitate to a premature rebound.

GBP/USD Analysis: Surpasses 1.3020 Mark

The Sterling has been appreciating against the US Dollar for consecutive three days. It reached the 1.3020 mark mid-Friday prior to passing through the 200-hour SMA. The rate managed to recover all losses and surpass from below the 200-, 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Subsequently, the Pound was stranded between the latter two for a brief period of time before large price swings resulted in a push north. Bullish trend indicators are starting to lose ground, suggesting that some downside potential may prevail. This assumption is in line with characteristics of the ascending wedge in which the pair is currently trading. Thus, it is likely that the price goes up for a momentum but then remains relatively stable. A breakout of the 55- and 200-hour SMAs should eventually work as a bearish indication of further momentum down.