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Oil tanked on Friday with an OPEC meeting today, but perversely Venezuela may end up doing what OPEC can’t.

Crude oil prices ran into a brick wall on Friday night with both contracts falling over 2.0% in late New York trading. The move itself was driven more by technical factors rather than any one piece of news, with traders squaring up ahead of the weekend and possibly ahead of OPEC/Non-OPEC’s technical meeting in St Petersburg today. This meeting should not provide any surprises in itself unless they announce that compliance has fallen or adjust their market rebalancing forecasts.

From a technical perspective however, Friday’s price action was not constructive, with Brent spot failing ahead of it’s 100-day moving average at 50.55 and WTI’s at 47.80. These two levels will now become key pivot areas as we move into a packed data week.

Looming on the horizon for oil traders is the 30th of July and Venezuela. This is the date the Venezuela intends to enact constitutional amendments the United States deems illegal and will impose immediate sanctions over. This has the potential to finally send Venezuela into bankruptcy torpedoing their oil exports. This would also impact U.S refiners already suffering from reduced heavy oil exports from Saudi Arabia. With U.S. refiners importing approximately 900,000 barrels a day from Venezuela, the sanctions could potentially send crudes prices higher.

Looking to today’s Asian session, Brent spot should open around 48.00 with ascending trend line support at 47.25 with resistance far away at 49.55.

WTI spot trades slightly higher from Friday at 45.50 with ascending trending support at 44.80 and resistance distantly at 47.00.

All eyes will now turn to the St Petersburg meeting this afternoon.

Global markets took a turn for the worse heading into weeks end as the lethal combination of political uncertainty and the void of encouraging US economic data weighed on investor confidence which was further dented by swooning oil prices.

G3 central bank's policy will continue to influence currencies while US political uncertainty sounds a harsh tone for the Greenback.

Australian Dollar

RBA's Debelle burst the AUD bulls balloon leaning heavy against the markets inference of the neutral nominal rate comment in an attempt to jawbone the currency lower. Aussie bears were quick to pounce driving the pair below .7900, but with the Greenback still labouring, bids held firm at .7875-80 .However, retracement momentum petered out into the weekend powered by positioning-led price action.

Traders have likely attached way too much emphasis on the RBA minutes which had dealers scrambling for topside exposure on the Aussie cores. The reality is the RBA was a reluctant rate cutter and never went as low as other central banks, so there is no need to follow the G-10 CB policy pivots just yet. Based on this view we could see a further washout of the short term long AUD positioning.Support comes in at .7875 ( Friday Low) but with a sagging Greenback, it's best to express any Aussie negative bias through the crosses.

Ultimately the RBA are caught between a rock and a hard place. Even if they wanted to hike rates, the huge levels of household debt which put Australia near the top the household indebtedness world ranking's would leave many unable to service their mortgage commitment.

This weeks focus will be on the key Aus domestic CPI, in the meantime, the ebb and flow of risk sentiment will show the way for the Australian Dollar

Euro

There has been very little backpedalling on the long EURO storyline as dealers continue to place much emphasis on Draghi declining the opportunity to talk down the currency post ECB minutes. And factoring in the expanding US political sinkhole which is weighing on broader USD sentiment, it's unlikely the market has run out of steam. With more FOMO (the fear of missing out) likely to kick in, it's odds on we test the August 2015 high of 1.1715 sooner than later.

EUR/USD's rally accelerated to as high as 1.1682 last week and took out 1.1615 resistance. There is no sign on topping yet and initial bias remains on the upside. Current rise should now extend to 1.2 handle next. On the downside, below 1.1582 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 1.1444 resistance turned support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 1.1760) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise fro 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it's developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. But for now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is now seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It's still early to decide whether price action form 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive move. But in either case, further rally would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516

USD/JPY's fall from 114.49 extended lower last week. The development affirmed the view that rebound from 108.81 is completed at 114.49. More importantly, whole correction from 118.65 is possibly still in progress. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 108.81 support first. Break there will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, break of 112.41 minor resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it's uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it's a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3125 last week but retreated sharply since then. With 1.2811 support intact, there is no indication of trend reversal yet. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3125 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3047 from 1.2588 at 1.3168. Overall, choppy rebound from 1.1946 is seen as a corrective pattern, hence, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.3168 to limit upside. But firm break of 1.3168 will bring further rise towards 1.3444 key resistance. Meanwhile, break of 1.2811 support will be the first sign of reversal and will turn bias to the downside to target 1.2588 key support next.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is expected, overall outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.7190 is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.

In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. On resumption, such decline would extend deeper to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. However, firm break of 1.3444 should confirm reversal and turn outlook bullish.

USD/CHF's fall accelerated to as low as 0.9437 last week and breached 0.9443 key support. There is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias remains on the downside. Firm break of 0.9443 key support will extend the down trend from 1.0342 to 161.8% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9860 from 1.0099 at 0.9319. On the upside, above 0.9521 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9699 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back 0.9443 key support level. Sustained break there indicate underlying bearish momentum and would target 0.9 handle and possibly below. Meanwhile, strong rebound from current level and break 0.9699 resistance will extend long term range trading between 0.9443/1.0342.

AUD/USD's rally continued last week and reached as high as 0.7988, meeting 61.8% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.7950. A temporary top is formed there. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidation first. Near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.7785 support holds and another rise is expected. Break of 0.7988 will target 100% projection at 0.8335 next. However, break of 0.7785 will argue that deeper pull back in under way and could target 55 day EMA (now at 0.7628).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we're favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we'd anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage.

USD/CAD continued to lose downside momentum last week. But after all, the down trend still extended. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.2460 low. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, we'll be cautious on strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.2700 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.2968 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Fall from 1.3793 is seen as the third leg and should target 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road. But firm break of 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048 will raise doubt over this view.

GBP/JPY's decline and break of 145.25 support last week clear up the outlook. Rise from 1.3865 should have completed at 147.76 after failing 148.09/42 resistance zone. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 144.04) will target 138.65 support and below. But we'd expect strong support from 135.58 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 146.27 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 147.76 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 122.36 is expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43. Decisive break there will carry long term bullish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. In case the sideway pattern from 148.42 extends, we'd be looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside.

In the longer term picture, it remains to be confirmed is whole down trend from 195.86 has completed at 122.36 already and there is no confirmation yet. But in any case, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.43 would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. And with that, the 55 month EMA will be firmly taken out which suggests that price actions from 116.83 is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade.

EUR/JPY continued to engage in consolidation below 130.76 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 127.43 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 122.39 to 130.76 at 127.56) and bring rebound. Above 130.76 will extend the larger rally to next key fibonacci level at 134.20.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is completed at 109.03 (2016 low). Current rally from 109.03 should be at the same degree as the fall from 149.76 to 109.03. Further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 124.08 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, at this point, there is no clear indication that rise from 109.03 is resuming that from 94.11. Hence, we'd be cautious on topping below 149.76 to extend range trading. Nonetheless, firm break of 149.76 will indicates strong underlying buying. In such case, EUR/JPY will target 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68.