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The euro has edged lower at the start of the week. Currently, the pair is trading slightly below the 1.14 level. It’s a quiet start to the week, with no major releases out of the eurozone or the US. On the release front, Germany’s trade deficit widened to EUR 20.3 billion, matching the forecast. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence edged up to 28.4, above the estimate of 28.1.

US employment numbers were a mix on Friday, and EUR/USD didn’t show much interest. Nonfarm Payrolls rebounded in June, climbing to 222 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 175 thousand. However, wage growth remained stuck at 0.2%, shy of the forecast of 0.3%. Wage growth has been soft in the first half of 2017, which has contributed to low inflation numbers.

The Fed has consistently said that it plans to raise interest rates for a third and final time in December. In June, Fed Chair Janet Yellen shrugged off inflation worries, saying that she expected inflation was mired at lows levels due to temporary factors. However, the markets don’t seem to be buying in, as the odds of a December hike have dropped to 47%, according to the CME Group. The US economy slowed down in the first quarter, and there are signs that Q2 will also be soft. Consumer spending, which comprises two-thirds of US economic growth, remains soft. Another sore point in the economy is inflation, which remains below the Fed’s target of 2%. If the economy doesn’t show signs of stronger growth and higher inflation, the Fed might change its tune about a December rate, which would likely send the US dollar lower.

With the eurozone economy showing broad improvement, the ECB is tiptoeing towards a tighter policy, as underscored by the ECB’s June minutes. Policymakers discussed removing its 'easing bias' at the June meeting, but ultimately decided not to make a move, since stronger economic conditions had not resulted in higher inflation. At the same time, minutes were cautious in tone, noting that 'it was necessary to avoid signals that could trigger a premature tightening of financial conditions'. ECB chief economist Peter Praet reiterated the bank’s stance at a conference in Paris last week. Praet noted that eurozone economic growth is accelerating, but said that the ECB still needs to provide a 'steady hand' in order to spur stubbornly low inflation levels. The ECB holds its next policy meeting on July 20. In June, the bank removed an easing bias towards lowering interest rates. However, policymakers may now be wary about sending more signals of tightening policy, so as to avoid another run on the euro, as was the case after Draghi’s comments at the ECB forum. The ECB doesn’t want the rate statement to shake up markets, so we could see an innocuous statement, to the effect that the economy is headed in the right direction, but QE will remain in place until inflation levels move higher.

Notes/Observations

European Equities trade higher seeing follow through from positive payrolls data out of the US on Friday

G20 Meeting over the weekend look to steps to reduce global overcapacity of steel

Overnight

Asia:

Japan govt cut its assessment of machinery orders for the first time since September 2016after May orders fell 3.6% m/m and only rose 0.6% y/y

PM Abe is looking to reshuffle his cabinet after according to Yomiuri poll Japan PM Abe approval rating fell to 36% from 49% in June (lowest reading since being in office)

China CPI falls slightly m/m, whilst PPI was in line with views

Cosco Shipping confirmed it will acquire Orient Overseas for HK$78.67/shr in a HK$49.2B deal.

Europe:

G20 Meeting in Hamburg over the weekend reiterated to fight protectionism and secure free trade. New elements include to agree by November steps to reduce global overcapacity of steel and in a first ever dissent: 19 members affirmed the Paris accord with the US (dissenter) saying it will help other countries "access and use fossil fuels more cleanly and efficiently.

German trade surplus rises in May following strong exports

EuroZone Sentix investor confidence dipped slightly from the prior month but came ahead of expectations

ECB 's Praet over the weekend noted Eurozone inflation will take a long time to rise back to target, with the reflation process being a long one.

Economic Data

(DE) GERMANY MAY CURRENT ACCOUNT: €17.3B V €15.4BE; TRADE BALANCE: €22.0B V €18.7BE

(FR) BANK OF FRANCE MAY BUSINESS SENTIMENT: 103 V 106E

(EU) EURO ZONE JULY SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: 28.3 V 28.1E

(NO) NORWAY JUN CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.7%E

Fixed Income Issuance:

Non seen

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATU

Equities

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.4% at 3,475, FTSE +0.3% at 7,374, DAX +0.6% at 12,464, CAC-40 +0.2% at 5,158, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10,460, FTSE MIB +0.6% at 21,147, SMI +0.7% at 8,944, S&P futures +0.1%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European markets opened higher and continued to remain positive as trading progressed; exception was Spain, being dragged down by Almirall, reportedly Congress to look into Popular Bank case; risk sentiment improved after major risk events of the weekend are over; consumer discretionary sector lead gains; energy stocks weighed on by weakness in oil prices; potential merger of Chinese container companies impacted shipping and port companies, as analyst see deal supportive of shipping prices, but negative to port administrators

Equities

Consumer discretionary [Air France AF.FR +0.9% (traffic), Remy Cointreau RCO.FR -0.6% (analyst action)]

Consumer staples [CHR Hansen CHR.DK +0.6% (analyst action)]

Energy [Norsk Hydro NHY.NO +0.5% (acquisition)]

Healthcare [Almirall ALM.ES -25.4% (cuts outlook), Stada Arzneimittel SAZ.DE +1.4% (raised offer), Cellnovo CLNV.FR +2.1% (financing agreement)]

Industrials [Orkla ORK.NO +2.4% (divestment), Carillion CLLN.UK -32.1% (cuts outlook)]

Speakers

(UK) UK PM May's Deputy Green: Confident can get repeal bill through parliament

Currencies

GBPUSD resumes its downtrend after a spate of weaker data last week with the pair dropping to a 10 day low. Dealers not immediate support at 1.2860 with a break targets support at 1.2840-50.

EURUSD remains above 1.14, with option barriers noted at 1.14 and 1.1450. Trading remains in a holding pattern, EURJPY has pared early gains but remains above 130.10 with upside tarts at 130.29 followed by 130.71.

Fixed Income

Bund futures trade at 160.82 up 29 ticks as volumes spike after taking out Friday’s high of 160.73. Resistance lies near the 161.50 level followed by 162.10. A break of the 160.00 support level could see lows target 159.25 followed by 157.50.

Gilt futures trade at 125.25 higher by 11 ticks following the move with Bunds and Treasuries. The focus this week is on the syndication of 0.125% 2056 gilt linker on Tuesday. Price finds key support at the 124.42 support level. An acceleration lower could test the 122.88 region. Resistance remains the noted 126.00 region, followed by 126.72.

Monday’s liquidity report showed Friday’s excess liquidity rose to €1.6646T a gain of €0.6B from €1.664T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility fell to €148M from €187M prior.

Corporate issuance saw $5.75B issued last week in a shortened holiday week. Next week’s forecast is $15-20B

Looking Ahead

15:00 (US) May Consumer Credit: No est v $8.2B prior

16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed the week marginally lower around 1.1400, as the dollar got help from a mixed US employment report that anyway is not enough to change the ongoing negative sentiment towards the American currency, as poor wages' growth keeps casting doubts over Fed's ability to keep on raising rates. The ECB account of the latest policy meeting, on the other hand, gave the common currency a boost on Thursday, as policy makers discussed the possibility of dropping the pledge to expand their bond-purchase programme if necessary, with the market seeing that as a step forward in the tightening path. The central bank finally decide to maintain it, waiting for higher inflation.

As for US employment data released on Friday, the economy added 222,000 new jobs in June, surpassing expectations, although the unemployment rate ticked higher, to 4.4% from previous 4.3%, whilst wages grew below market's expectations, up just by 0.2% in the month. The upcoming week will be quite busy in the data front, with inflation in the US topping the list of market movers for the pair.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the pair topped around 1.1440 for a second consecutive week, whilst technical indicators have begun easing from oversold levels, but are far from confirming an upcoming reversal, moreover as the price remains well above all of its moving averages, which continue heading north. The short term picture is quite alike with indicators pulling back modestly within positive territory, but the price above bullish moving averages. Declines will remain corrective as long as buying interest defends the 1.1290 region, the neckline of the mentioned double top figure. To the upside, a long term resistance stands at 1.1460, with large stops probably gathering above it.

Support levels: 1.1380 1.1340 1.1290

Resistance levels: 1.1460 1.1490 1.1525

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair's advance extended to 114.17 last week, its highest since May 11th, with the pair up for a fourth consecutive week. Dollar gains were backed by surging yields worldwide, on fresh signals that central banks' are moving away from ease-oriented monetary policies. On Thursday, the German bund 10-year yield rose to its highest in 18 months, after the ECB unveiled that discussed removing the easing bias from their statement in their latest meeting.  In the US, the 10-year note benchmark rose to 2.39%, its highest in two months. Over the weekend, news hit the wires that the BOJ will cut its inflation forecast, while maintaining the current stimulus in their upcoming meeting, according to "people familiar with the matter." The news can see the JPY regaining ground this Monday, particularly as demand for the USD remains limited. From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows that the positive stance persists, as the price has extended its advance beyond a bullish 200 DMA, although the 100 DMA keeps heading south below the largest. In the same chart, technical indicators head north near overbought levels. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the technical outlook is also positive, with the RSI indicator consolidating near 64 and the Momentum heading higher, but below previous highs. The pair has  a strong static resistance around 114.40, with a break above it signaling further gains ahead.

Support levels: 113.50 113.10 112.65

Resistance levels: 114.05 114.40 114.75

GBP/USD

The Pound edged lower against all of its major rivals on Friday, as worse-than-expected industrial and manufacturing production figures for May point to weaker growth of the UK economy, with the first down 0.1% and the second 0.2%, while construction output also fell in the month, and the trade balance's deficit widened more than expected, to £3.796B. The numbers cooled down expectations of a tighter monetary policy, resulting in the GBP/USD pair breaking below the 1.2900 level. US mixed employment data had little effect on the pair, but prevent it from recovering ground. The pair has an immediate support at 1.2860, the 38.2% retracement of the 1.2588/1.3029 rally from late June, with technical indicators heading lower within bearish territory, and the 20 DMA heading north below the mentioned Fibonacci support. Overall, the downward move remains corrective, albeit below the mentioned static support, the pair has room to extend its decline down towards 1.2750, the 61.8% retracement of the same rally. In the 4 hours chart, the scale leans towards the downside, as the 20 SMA gains bearish strength above the current level, while technical indicators hold within bearish territory, with limited directional strength.

Support levels: 1.2860 1.2820 1.2785

Resistance levels: 1.2925 1.2960 1.3000

GOLD

Gold prices fell further on Friday, with spot ending the week at $1,212.15, its lowest settlement in four months, following a mixed US employment report. A strong jobs' creation was balanced with poor wages' growth, not enough to deviate the Fed's from its tightening path, albeit uncertainty remains strong on the case. US inflation data, to be released this week, can shed some light over the matter and determinate gold's trend. Also, denting sentiment towards the commodity is the latest flip in central banks' stance, now inclined to tighten their monetary policies. The technical picture for the safe-haven is bearish according to the daily chart, with the price having extended its decline below the 200 DMA and indicators heading south near oversold readings. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that a bearish 20 SMA keeps capping the upside, currently at 1,222.10, while the RSI indicator has managed to correct partially oversold readings, while the Momentum indicator lost upward strength well below its mid-line.

Support levels: 1,207.24 1,198.20 1,189.90

Resistance levels: 1,222.10 1,228.00 1,236.50

WTI CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices closed the week in the red, with West Texas Intermediate futures down to $44.33 a barrel, shedding roughly 3% this past week, amid persistent fears of a global glut, and news that Russia is not willing to back further OPEC's output cuts. US government data released last Thursday showed that, despite crude oil stockpiles fell by 6.3 million, oil production rose on1.0% to 9.34 million barrels per day. Additionally, the Baker Hughes report released on Friday showed that the number of US active rigs drilling for oil rose by 7 to 763 last week. The daily chart for WTI shows that the price settled below its 20 SMA, and around the 23.6% retracement of its latest bearish run, after correcting half of the decline in the previous week, increasing chances of a downward extension. In the same chart, the Momentum indicator holds flat within positive territory, but the RSI indicator also supports a downward move by heading south around 41. In the 4 hours chart, the price settled below all of its moving averages, while technical indicators bounced from oversold levels, heading higher within positive territory, not enough to support a recovery.

Support levels: 43.70 43.10 42.60

Resistance levels: 44.80 45.50 46.10

DJIA

US indexes surged on Friday, ending the week with gains, helped the employment report released on Friday, indicating strong jobs' creation in June, and despite soft wages arise doubts over upcoming rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 94 points, to settle at 21,414.34, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 63 points, to 6,153.08. The S&P closed at 2,425.18, up 0.64%. Within the Dow, Goldman Sachs led decliners with a 0.62% loss, followed by General Electric that shed 0.61% and Chevron, this last hit by oil's decline. McDonald's led advancers, up 2.08%, followed by Nike that gained 1.43%. The daily chart for the DJIA shows that the index closed right around its 20 DMA, unable to recover above it, but far above the larger ones, whilst technical indicators turned higher within neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart, the advance was contained by the 20 and 100 SMAs, both converging around 21,420, whilst technical indicators recovered from oversold readings, but lost upward momentum below their mid-lines, limiting chances of a stronger advance in the short term.

Support levels: 21,366 21,305 21,278

Resistance levels: 21,420 21,459 21,515

FTSE100

The FTSE 100 found support in a weaker Pound last Friday, ending the day up 13 points or 0.19%, at 7,350.92. The mining sector edged lower on gold and silver weakness, with Fresnillo and Randgold Resources shedding over 1.0% each. EasyJet was the best performer, up 5.35%, followed by Centrica that added 2.87% on rumors of a takeover of the company. Royal mail led decliners, ending the day down 3.35%, while ITV shed 2.91%. The index remains biased lower according to technical readings, as in the daily chart, the recovery stalled below the 100 DMA while the 20 SMA extended its downward move above the largest. Indicators in the mentioned chart remain within negative territory with little directional strength. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have turned horizontal below their mid--lines, while the index settled a few points above a bullish 20 SMA, yet below the 100 and 200 SMAs, indicating limited buying interest.

Support levels: 7,327 7,294 7,256

Resistance levels: 7,372 7,424 7,452

DAX

European equities closed mostly lower on Friday, as persistent weakness in oil prices weighed, although the German DAX managed to close the day at 12,388.68, up by 7 points. Speculation that the easing monetary policy is getting closer to an end, undermined investors' confidence despite the economic recovery, indicating that stocks may remain under pressure this week. Within the German benchmark, ProSiebenSat.1 led decliners for a second consecutive session, down 1.29%, and followed by Commerzbank that shed 0.52%. RWE AG was the best performer, up 3.72%, followed by E.ON that added 2.55%. The index has held once again above a bullish 100 DMA in the daily chart, but remains nearby, and with technical indicators holding near oversold readings, which increase the risk of further declines ahead. In the 4 hours chart, the latest recovery was contained by a now flat 20 SMA, with the index holding around it, while technical indicators consolidate below their mid-lines, limiting chances of a steeper recovery. The index bottomed at 12,310 this past week, the level to break to confirm a new leg lower.

Support levels: 12,366 12,310 12,272

Resistance levels: 12,445 12,490 12,536

GOLD Bearish breakout.

Gold's is trading lower towards strong support given at 1214 (09/05/2017 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 1258 (23/06/2017 high). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER Strong bearish momentum.

Silver has broken support at 15.63 (27/12/2016 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 17.75 (06/06/2017 high). The road seems wide open for further decline.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Profit-taking after the strong increase.

Crude oil is back to bearish again. Support is given at 42.05 (21/06/2017 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

The US labor market posted another month of solid employment gains in June, data showed on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 222k, much more than the forecast of 179k. Meanwhile, May's print was revised up to 152k from 138k. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, missing its forecast of staying unchanged, but this is still a number consistent with full employment. The disappointment was wage growth, with average hourly earnings coming in below the forecast, while last month's print was revised lower. As a result, the dollar tumbled somewhat, but quickly recovered its losses to trade more or less unchanged in the following minutes.

Overall, these data are unlikely to change much within the divided FOMC in our view, as policymakers are still faced with the conundrum of a strong labor market, but lackluster inflationary pressures. As such, we think the greenback could trade in a consolidative manner over the next couple of days, as investors await for fresh data or new signals by the Fed. The next events that could dictate the currency's forthcoming direction are Fed Chair Yellen's semi-annual testimony on Wednesday (and Thursday) and subsequently, the CPI prints for June that are due out Friday. On balance, the CPIs may be more important for investors, as they could determine which of the two FOMC camps will prevail, the hawks or the doves.

USD/JPY traded higher on Friday, breaking above the resistance (now turned into support) barrier of 113.90 (S1). The rate continues to trade above the short-term uptrend line taken from the low of the 14th of June, while on Friday, it cleared the longer-term downside resistance line taken from the peak of the 11th of January. Bearing these in mind, we would expect the pair to continue trading north and perhaps challenge the 114.40 (R1) barrier soon. A decisive break above that resistance is likely to open the way for our next obstacle of 114.90 (R2).
Solid Canadian jobs data boost the Loonie

On Friday, we got employment data for June from Canada as well. The report was much stronger than expected, with the unemployment rate surprisingly declining and the net change in employment coming in much higher than anticipated. Combined with the strong GDP for Q1 and the robust retail sales for April, another strong employment report probably added further fuel to speculation that the BoC is likely to hike rates this week.

However, despite the heightened market expectations with regards to a hike on Wednesday, we don't share that view. We do expect the Bank to hike soon, but we think this week is too early. Even though the Canadian economy is strong, inflationary pressures are still missing. The nation's core inflation rate tells the story, as it has declined for 3 consecutive months and now rests at +0.9% yoy. It would be very strange for the BoC to hike while underlying inflation is trending lower, in our view. As for the Loonie, it could continue to gain as we head into the meeting on expectations for a hike. However, if the Bank acts like we expect, CAD could reverse some of its latest gains.

USD/CAD tumbled on Friday following Canada's stellar employment report. The pair came under selling interest after it tested the psychological zone of 1.3000 (R2), to break below the support (turned into resistance) level of 1.2920 (R1). The decline was stopped at 1.2860 (R1). Given that the rate is trading below the 1.3000 (R2) zone, which acted as the lower bound of the sideways range that contained the price action since the 9th of September, we would consider the outlook to be negative. We would expect the rate to continue trading south, at least until Wednesday's BoC meeting. A clear dip below 1.2860 (S1) is likely to initially aim for our next support of 1.2820 (S2), where another break is possible to target the 1.2770 (S3) zone.

Today's highlights:

During the European day, we get Norway's CPI data for June and expectations are for both the headline and the core rates to have declined. Even though something like that could hurt NOK on the news, we don't expect any negative reaction to be massive. The Norges Bank already noted at its latest meeting that inflation is lower than expected and may continue to drift lower in the months ahead.

As for the rest of the week:

On Tuesday, the economic calendar is relatively light. On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the BoC rate decision, as we already outlined above. Meanwhile in the US, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver her semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. In the UK, employment figures for May will be in focus. On Thursday, during the Asian morning, China's trade balance for June is due out while during the European day, we get Sweden's CPI prints for June. Finally on Friday, in the US the main event will be the release of CPI and retail sales data for June.

USD/JPY

Support: 113.90 (S1), 113.45 (S2), 112.90 (S3)

Resistance: 114.40 (R1), 114.90 (R2), 115.50 (R3)

USD/CAD

Support: 1.2860 (S1), 1.2820 (S2), 1.2770 (S3)

Resistance: 1.2920 (R1), 1.3000 (R2), 1.3080 (R3)

EUR/JPY Continued increase.

EUR/JPY is back above 130 for the first time in a year and half. Hourly support can be found at 127.10 (30/06/2017). Next support is given at 122.56 (18/05/2017 low). Further upside is favored.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Testing resistance area.

EUR/GBP is testing for the third time in two months resistance area around 0.8900. Hourly support is given at 0.8719 (16/06/2017 low). Expected to show further buying pressures.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Monitoring 1.1000.

EUR/CHF is now heading towards psychological level at 1.1000. Selling pressures are important at this mark. Hourly support is located at a distance at 1.0922 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to inch higher.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

USD/CHF Weakening.

USD/CHF is pushing lower. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9771 (09/06/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 1.0107 (10/04/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.9553 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Heading lower.

USD/CAD's bearish momentum continues. Support given at 1.2913 (04/07/2017 low) has been broken. Resistance is located at 1.3014 (02/15/2017). Expected to show continued downside pressures.

In the longer term, the pair lies in a bullish channel since a year. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Strengthening.

AUD/USD's technical structure is bullish since early May despite some consolidation move. The pair should further head back towards resistance at 0.7712 (30/06/2017 high). However, a break of support at 0.7520 (09/06/2017 low) would nonetheless indicate a renewed bearish trend.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Ready for another leg higher.

EUR/USD is still consolidating and should target resistance at 1.1445 (29/06/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.1292 (28/06/2017 low). Stronger support lies at 1.1076 (18/05/2017 low).

In the longer term, the momentum is clearly negative. We favour a continued bearish bias towards parity. Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBP/USD Continued short-term selling pressures.

GBP/USD is still trading lower. The pair failed to monitor resistance given at 1.3046 (18/05/2017 high). The road is wide-open for further weakness.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Ready for a bullish breakout.

USD/JPY is still riding within symmetrical triangle towards resistance given at 114.37 (10/05/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 112.83 (05/07/2017 low). Stronger support is located at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show continued bullish pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

AUD/USD has been moving in a very narrow range. The ATR for last 14 days is 48 pips and it suggest slow moving price. If the price managed to stay below 0.7645 that is the ATR projected high and W H3 camarilla, bears would have an upper hand. At this point we might see a rejection from the POC 0.7600-15 ( D H3, 38.2, inner trend line, ATR pivot) towards 0.7570 and eventually 0.7550.

The yellow metal has declined once more to the lower trend line of the long term descending channel pattern. The commodity price tested the strength of the support line already on Friday. On Monday morning the bullion continued to test the support. If it gets passed, and the pattern is broken, the bullion would retreat down to the 1,198.51 level, where the second monthly support is located at. Meanwhile, if the support line proves its strength, the commodity price might jump back up to the 1,220 mark, where the monthly S1 together with the 55 and 100- hour simple moving averages are located. In either of the cases Monday's trading session is most likely set to reveal the direction of the metal for the rest of the week.