Sample Category Title

EURUSD

The EURUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.1424. As you can see on my H4 chart below price is still moving convincingly above the trend line support and EMA 200 suggests a strong and valid bullish trend. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 1.1500 – 1.1530 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.1350. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.1285 support area but overall I remain bullish and any downside pullback should be seen as a good opportunity to buy. Fundamental focus today will be on the US NFP number.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 1.2982. The bias is bullish in nearest term retesting 1.3050 key resistance which remains a good place to sell with a tight stop loss as a clear break and daily/weekly close above that area would activate my bullish mode targeting 1.3350 area next week. Immediate support is seen around 1.2925 area. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 1.2875 region. Fundamental focus today will be on the US NFP number.

USDJPY

The USDJPY had another indecisive movement yesterday but traded higher earlier today in Asian session hit 113.83. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 114.30. Immediate support is seen around 113.20. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 112.75 support area which is a good place to buy. On the upside, a clear break and daily/weekly close above 114.30 would expose 115.50 region or higher next week. Fundamental focus today will be on the US NFP number.

USDCHF

The USDCHF had a bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 0.9601 and hit 0.9595 earlier today in Asian session. The bearish pin bar I showed you yesterday gave us a valid bearish signal. The bias is bearish in nearest term testing 0.9550 – 0.9450 key support area which remains a good place to buy with a tight stop loss below 0.9450 as a clear break and daily/weekly close below that area would expose 0.9250 region next week. Fundamental focus today will be on the US NFP number.

The euro is showing little movement in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading slightly above the 1.14 level. On the release front, German Industrial Production gained 1.2%, crushing the estimate of 0.2%. In the US, the week wraps up with key employment events. Average Hourly Earnings is expected to edge up to 0.3%, and Nonfarm Payrolls is forecast to jump to 175 thousand. As well, the Federal Reserve will release its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.

The ECB released the minutes of its June meeting on Thursday, and the euro responded with gains, as the ECB mulled policy adjustments. Policymakers discussed removing its 'easing bias' at the June meeting, but ultimately decided not to make a move, since stronger economic conditions had not resulted in higher inflation. At the same time, minutes were cautious in tone, noting that 'it was necessary to avoid signals that could trigger a premature tightening of financial conditions'. The minutes come after comments from ECB President Mario Draghi last week, who said that the eurozone growth was broadly distributed and that factors keeping inflation down were temporary. The markets jumped on his remarks, as speculation rose that the ECB was preparing to taper its stimulus program. Draghi's message did not seem to veer away from ECB policy, but the markets clearly thought otherwise. As well, ECB chief economist Peter Praet reiterated the bank's stance at a conference in Paris. Praet noted that eurozone economic growth is accelerating, but said that the ECB still needs to provide a 'steady hand' in order to spur stubbornly low inflation levels. Next stop for the ECB is the July policy meeting. In June, the bank removed an easing bias towards lowering interest rates. However, policymakers may now be wary about sending more signals of tightening policy, so as to avoid another run on the euro. The ECB doesn't want the rate statement to shake up markets, so we could see a bland statement, to the effect that the economy is headed in the right direction, but QE will remain in place until inflation levels move higher.

The dollar shrugged off the release of the Fed's June policy meeting, which didn't provide any clarity about the Fed's plans. The minutes pointed to a divided Fed over the key issues of inflation and the Fed's bloated balance sheet. Some members expressed unease at the Fed's current forecast of rate hikes, given the persistently low levels of inflation. According to the current 'dot plot', the Fed expects to raise rates in December, and three times in 2018. There was also division over the timing of reducing the $4.2 trillion balance sheet – some policymakers were in favor of starting in September, while others preferred later in the year. At the June meeting, the Fed stated that it would begin reducing the balance sheet this year, but provided no details. Analysts expect the Fed to start winding down the balance sheet in September, prior to a rate hike in December. The markets are lukewarm about a rate hike in December, with the odds at just 50%, according to the CME Group.

Friday July 7: Five things the markets are talking about

Global bond yields remain elevated as investors wait for this week's main event, non-farm payrolls (NFP).

It seems that the market is becoming more anxious that central banks are moving towards reducing stimulus efforts that have supported debt markets. The eurozone remains at the center of the selling as the yield on 10-year German Bunds rallies to its highest level in 18-months.

The U.S Labor Department reports its official jobs figures for June at 08:30 am EDT. American employers are expected to have added around +175k jobs last month along with wage growth.

Average hourly earnings are expected to improve in today's employment report, but not very much, the market is looking for a +0.3% monthly gain versus June's very subdued +0.2% increase. Year-on-year, consensus is looking for earnings to rise to a +2.6%.

Note: +3% is considered the minimum necessary to boost the Fed's most closely watched inflation measure, the PCE core.

If average hourly earnings prove a surprise in June, either improving more than expected or slowing more than expected, other headline prints (NFP and unemployment rate) may actually take a back seat for intraday moves.

Also, the G-19 + 1 summit begins in Hamburg this morning – U.S President Trump is expected to hold his first meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin as well as meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

1. Global stocks under pressure from rising yields

Rising global interest rates continue to weigh on equity sentiment.

Overnight, benchmarks in Japan, Korea and Hong Kong all fell for the third session in four, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 has dropped three straight in recording a regional-worst -1% decline – the index has seen red for a third-consecutive week.

The outlier has been China to a certain extent; the Shanghai Composite has now risen for the ninth session in eleven with its overnight +0.2% climb.

In Europe, stocks remain under pressure following a barrage of macro data. Oil price continue to drag on energy stocks, while tightening concerns from central banks is providing added pressure.

U.S equities are set to open in the red (-0.1%).

Indices: Stoxx50 -0.2% at 3,455, FTSE -0.2% at 7,324, DAX -0.2% at 12,360, CAC-40 -0.4% at 5,133, IBEX-35 -0.4% at 10,463, FTSE MIB -0.6% at 20,967, SMI -0.3% at 8,860, S&P futures +0.1%

2. Oil prices fall on signs market still oversupplied, gold little changed

Ahead of the U.S open, oil prices are down more than -2% after data showed U.S production rose last week just as OPEC exports hit a 2017 high, basically casting doubt on efforts by producers to curb oversupply.

Brent futures are down -$1.07, or -2.2%, at +$47.04 a barrel, its weakest level in more than a week. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are trading at +$44.40 a barrel, down -$1.12 or -2.5%.

Weekly U.S government data showed yesterday that U.S. oil production rose +1% to +9.34m bpd, correcting a drop in the previous week that was down to one-off maintenance issues.

Note: The market has ignored news from the EIA that U.S crude inventories fell by -6.3m barrels in the week to June 30 to +502.9m barrels, the lowest since January.

For now, rising geopolitical risks is providing some support for gold. The precious metal is little changed (-0.2% to +$1,220.97 an ounce) overnight as tensions on the Korean peninsula stoked safe-haven demand for the metal. Nevertheless, the dollars strength is expected to provide weight for some metal prices.

3. Global yields rally on monetary policy fear

Global government bonds continue their sell off as anxiety toward less monetary policy support from central banks continue to drive investors to cut bond holdings.

The center of the selling remains in the eurozone where government bond yields have jumped broadly. The yield on the 10-year German Bund has moved back above the psychological +50 bps to +0.56%, a level not seen since early 2016. The selling pressure has spread to the U.K, the U.S, Canada, Denmark and Sweden.

Yesterday, the yield on U.S 10's touched +2.38%, the highest level since May 11.

Elsewhere, down-under, Australia's benchmark yield has gained +2 bps to +2.66%. Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Harper said that Aussie policy makers are “comfortable holding interest rates for now and see no reason to scare the horses at the moment” by signalling coming interest rate increases.

4. Dollar range bound until NFP

Major currency pairs sit atop some key levels ahead of NFP.

The EUR (€1.1412) remains at the high end of yesterday's rise as recent 'hawkish' commentary from ECB officials continue to keep the 'single' unit supported. Through €1.1427 the bulls are targeting June's high of €1.1447.

Sterling (£1.2907) is under pressure from weaker UK IP/MP data (see below), techies note support around £1.2890 area, which corresponds to the weekly lows. EUR/GBP has spiked to €0.8838, with resistance seen at €0.8845 initially.

Yen (¥113.65) is weaker in the overnight session as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) acts to slow JGB yield rise – officials announced that they would increase purchases of 5-10 year JGB's to +¥500B from +¥450B at its upcoming QE operation.

5. British Industrial Output Falls Unexpectedly

Data this morning showed that U.K. industrial production shrank unexpectedly in May, falling -0.1% vs. +0.3% gain expected, while factory output fell by -0.2%, against expectations of +0.3% growth.

Note: Industrial output was dragged lower by a fall in manufacturing output and lower energy production.

It's further proof that U.K economic growth has failed to pick up in Q2 after a sluggish start to the year.

Similar to other Central Bank rhetoric of late, the Bank of England (BoE) is considering raising interest rates given high inflation, however, disappointing economic data like this should surely give sterling 'bulls' pause for thought?

The Greenback held steady against its major counterparts during Friday's trading session, as investors awaited the heavily anticipated US employment report this afternoon for further insight on the health of the US job market. With the disappointing ADP data showing that US private employers added 158k jobs in June vs the 188k estimates, markets will be closely observing whetherthe pending NFP headline figure follows a similar pattern. June's jobs report is a big deal and has the potential to impact rate hike expectations this year, especially when considering how policy makers remain split on the outlook for inflation. Much attention will be directed towards average hourly wages, as a decline in wage growth may raise concerns over inflation picking up, consequently weighing on the prospect of higher rates this year. From a technical standpoint, although the Dollar is flexing against other major currencies today, this could be deflated if June's jobs report disappoints.

Sterling tumbles after industrial production falls

Sterling was vulnerable to heavy losses on Friday after industrial output data unexpectedly contracted in May, consequently fueling the Brexit fears. With the string of economic data from the UK this week proving nothing to celebrate about, investors may be forced to re-evaluate the possibility of a UK rate hike this year. With uncertainty still the name of the game when dealing with Sterling and Brexit woes weighing on sentiment, Sterling may be instore for further punishment. The GBPUSD is coming under increasing pressure on the daily charts. A breakdown below 1.2850 could encourage a further decline towards 1.2750.

WTI Crude under pressure again

WTI Crude dipped below $45 on Friday after reports of a rise in US production overshadowed data that showed US Crude oil and gasoline inventories declined sharply last week. Earlier reports of Russia being opposed to any further supply cuts and OPEC's output in June rising to its highest levels so far this year have also complimented oil's downside. With the unshakeable oversupply dynamics weighing heavily on investor sentiment and the increasingly clear fact that OPEC may be losing its grip over the industry, oversupply woes may remain a dominant theme. From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude is coming under increasing pressure on the daily charts. Weakness below $44.50 could encourage a further decline back towards $42.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold prices depreciated during early trading on Friday, as investors adopted a cautious approach ahead of the heavily anticipated NFP report that is being released later today. A slightly stronger US Dollar complimented Gold's decline, with the metal edging towards $1220 at the time of writing. It is becoming quite clear that the rising prospect of tighter global monetary policies has punished the zero-yielding metal with the short-term outlook tilted to the downside. Although the heightening geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea, Brexit developments and on-going political risk in Washington may stimulate the flight to safety and offer some support down the line, Gold currently remains pressured. From a technical standpoint, weakness below $1220 may open a path towards $1214.

EU Mid-Market Update: UK data continues to underwhelm; European Indices drift lower ahead of US Jobs data

Notes/Observations

UK economic data continues to disappoint, pushing Sterling towards week lows

2 day G20 summit begins today in Hamburg

European Bond futures stabilize ahead of the US Jobs data, following sharp falls yesterday

Overnight

Asia:

Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it would increase purchases of 5-10 year JGBs to ¥500B from ¥450B at its upcoming QE operation.

JAPAN MAY LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.4%E; REAL +0.1% V 0.1%E; Government said the May, regular pay (base wages) had the largest annual gain since March 2000.

China Foreign reserves rises for fifth straight month

Europe:

UK Industrial and Manufacturing production falls short of expectations, continuing the recent run of weaker data

Continued hawkish commentary overnight from ECB's Weidmann noting economic recovery now raises prospect of monetary policy normalization, followed by comments by ECB's Coeure reiterating that if needed Governing council can adjust its instruments both qualitatively and quantitatively, although he noted underlying inflationary pressures remain weak.

French and German Industrial production record strong beats of estimates and of prior months reading

BoE McCafferty acknowledges a modest loss of momentum in the UK economy into H1, noting however that pick up inflation is not something that can be ignored

UK house prices fall for the third quarter running according to the Halifax survey

2 day G20 Summit begins today

America:

Fed’s Mester (hawkish, non-voter) said Fed should launch portfolio runoff sooner rather than later; Expects inflation to resume climb toward 2%, but recent slowdown requires attention.

June NonFarm Payroll report due 8:30ET, Change in Payrolls expected at +178K.

Economic Data

(UK) MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.1% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: -0.2% V 0.2%E

Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 1.0%e

(DE) GERMANY MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 5.0% V 4.0%E

(FR) FRANCE MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.9% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 3.2% V 1.4%E

(UK) JUN HALIFAX HOUSE PRICE M/M: -1.0% V +0.2%E; 3M/Y: 2.6% V 3.1%E

(CN) CHINA JUN FOREIGN RESERVES: $3.0568T V $3.061TE (5th straight increase)

(UK) MAY VISIBLE TRADE BALANCE: -£11.9B V -£10.9BE

(CH) SWISS JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.0% V 3.0%E

(FR) FRANCE MAY TRADE BALANCE: €-4.9B V -€5.1BE

(NO) Norway May Industrial Production M/M: -0.7% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.9% prior

(IT) Italy May Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.2% prior

Fixed Income Issuance:

Non seen

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.2% at 3,455, FTSE -0.2% at 7,324, DAX -0.2% at 12,360, CAC-40 -0.4% at 5,133, IBEX-35 -0.4% at 10,463, FTSE MIB -0.6% at 20,967, SMI -0.3% at 8,860, S&P futures +0.1%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European stocks open slightly lower and remained under pressure following a barrage of macro data; oil price dragging on energy stocks; risk sentiment remains muted following poor performance in Asia and risk events over coming weekend; materials stocks continue downward trend; equities in general under pressure following several days of concern over potential tightening from central banks; attention on comments from G-20 meeting, and upcoming NFP in the US

Equities

Consumer discretionary [Carrefour CA.FR -4.2% (Q2 sales), Dunelm DNLM.UK 4.8% (trading update), Aurelius AR4.DE +0.1% (raised guidance)]

Energy [Centrica CNA.UK +4.9% (takeover speculation)]

Financials [Protector Forsikring PROTCT.NO +2.4% (outlook)]

Healthcare [Cellnovo CLNV.FR 10.9% (placement)]

Industrials [Cape CIU.UK 45.8% (to be acquired), Fenner FENR.UK +7.7% (trading update), Deutz DEZ.DE 2.0% (Volvo sells stake)]

Technology [Future FUTR.UK +6.4% (acquisition)]

Telecom [Com Hem COMH.SE +4.0% (analyst action)]

Speakers

(EU) ECB's Coeure: Reiterates that if needed Governing council can adjust its instruments both qualitatively and quantitatively; Underlying inflationary pressures are still weak

EU's Juncker: Will respond adequately if US take punitive trade measures.on steel - comments before G20

Currencies

GBPUSD drops on weaker UK IP/MP data falling almost 40 pips to 1.2916, dealers note support around 1.2890 area which corresponds to the weekly lows. EURGBP spikes to 0.8838, with resistance seen at 0.8845 initially.

EURUSD consolidates above 1.14 following the strong rise seen yesterday, with a move above 1.1427 paving the way to target June highs. Recent hawkish commentary from ECB officials continue to keep the Euro supported.

USD/RUB drops to the lowest since January on the back of continued weakness in OIl.

Fixed Income

Bund futures trade at 160.55 down 5 ticks continuing its move after yesterday’s dramatic breaking of the 10-year yield 0.50% level. All eyes are on today’s US nonfarm payroll number. Resistance lies near the 160.75 level followed by 161.50. A break of the 160.00 support level could see lows target 159.25 followed by 157.50.

Gilt futures trade at 124.74 higher by 2 ticks as core European government bond yields have edged lower after yesterday's sharp rise but the market is unlikely to do much ahead of today's US non-farm payroll release. Gilts are near 5-month lows. Price finds key support at the 124.42 support level. An acceleration lower could test the 122.88 region. Resistance remains the noted 126.00 region, followed by 126.72.

Friday’s liquidity report showed Thursday’s deposits dropped rose to €612.9B from €611.0B prior. Use of the marginal lending facility fell to €187M from €136M prior.

Corporate issuance saw $5.75B come to market via 2 issues headlined by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group $4.25B 3-part offering. This week’s issuance is at $5.75B. For the week ending July 5th Lipper US fund flows reported IG funds net inflows $2.5B bringing YTD inflows to $69.1B, High yield funds reported outflows of $1.1B bringing YTD outflows to $7.7B.

Looking Ahead

06:00 (PT) Portugal May Retail Sales M/M: No est v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.9% prior

07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: -0.7%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.2%e v +1.1% prior

07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves

08:00 (PL) Poland Jun Official Reserves: No est v $109.7B prior

08:00 (UK) Jun NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.2% prior

08:00 (BR) Brazil Jun IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: -0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.6% prior

08:00 (CL) Chile Jun CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.6% prior

08:00 (CL) Chile Jun CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.5% prior

08:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

08:30 (US) Jun Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +178Ke v +138K prior, Change in Private Payrolls: +170Ke v +147K prior, Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +5Ke v -1K prior

08:30 (US) Jun Unemployment Rate: 4.3%e v 4.3% prior, Underemployment Rate: No est v 8.4% prior, Change in Household Employment (civilian labor force): No est v 159.8K prior, Civilian Labor Participation Rate: 62.7%e v 62.7% prior

08:30 (US) Jun Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.6%e v 2.5% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.4e v 34.4 prior

08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Net Change in Employment: +10.0Ke v +54.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.6%e v 6.6% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v 77.0K; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -22.3K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 65.8% prior

08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales

08:30 (CL) Chile Jun Trade Balance: $0.1Be v $0.7B prior

08:30 (CL) Chile Jun International Reserves: No est v $38.9B prior

09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun CPI M/M: +0.3%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 6.3%e v 6.2% prior; Core CPI Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior

09:00 (RU) Russia Jun Official Reserve Assets: $407.3Be v $405.7B prior

10:00 (CA) Canada Jun Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): 58.0e v 53.8 prior

10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories

13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data

GOLD Monitoring support at 1214.

Gold's is trading lower towards strong support given at 1214 (09/05/2017 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 1258 (23/06/2017 high). Expected to show further weakness.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER Monitoring support at 1214. Sharp decline.

Silver's short-term decline should continue until support at 15.63 (27/12/2016 low). Key resistance is given at a distance at 17.75 (06/06/2017 high). The road seems wide open for further decline.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Profit-taking after the strong increase.

Crude Oilis back to bearish again. Support is given at 42.05 (21/06/2017 low). Expected to show renewed weakness.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/JPY Continued increase.

EUR/JPY has broken resistance area around 129.00. Hourly support can be found at 127.10 (30/06/2017). Next support is given at 122.56 (18/05/2017 low). Further upside is favored.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Low volatility and sideways price action.

EUR/GBP has broken downtrend resistance triggering a move lower. Hourly support is given at 0.8719 (16/06/2017 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Bullish breakout.

EUR/CHF is now heading towards psychological level at 1.1000. Selling pressures are important at this mark. Hourly support is located at a distance at 1.0922 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to inch higher.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

USD/CHF Pushing lower.

USD/CHF is pushing lower. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9771 (09/06/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 1.0107 (10/04/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.9553 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Sideways price action.

USD/CAD is moving sideways. Support given at 1.2913 (04/07/2017 low). Resistance is located at 1.3014 (02/15/2017). Expected to show continued downside pressures.

In the longer term, the pair lies in a bullish channel since a year. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Weakening.

AUD/USD's technical structure is bullish since early May despite ongoing bearish move. The pair should further head back towards resistance at 0.7712 (30/06/2017 high). However, a break of support at 0.7520 (09/06/2017 low) would nonetheless indicate a deeper bearish trend.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Back to bullish.

EUR/USD is back to bullish and should target resistance at 1.1445 (29/06/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.1292 (28/06/2017 low). Stronger support lies at 1.1076 (18/05/2017 low).

In the longer term, the momentum is clearly negative. We favour a continued bearish bias towards parity. Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBP/USD Short-term selling pressures.

GBP/USD is still lower. The pair failed to monitor resistance given at 1.3046 (18/05/2017 high). The road is wide-open for further weakness.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Riding within symmetrical triangle.

USD/JPY is riding within symmetrical triangle towards resistance given at 114.37 (10/05/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 112.83 (05/07/2017 low). Stronger support is located at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show continued bullish pressures within symmetrical triangle.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

• Higher bond yields weighing on equity markets;
• Wages key in US jobs report, Canadian data also key ahead of BoC decision next week.

US equity markets are expected to open relatively flat on Friday, with bond yields back in focus as we await the June labour market data from the US and Canada.

Bond yields have been rising once again this week as investors continue to prepare for the prospect of less monetary accommodation from central banks around the world. Recent commentary from a number of policy makers has done nothing to alter people's views, if anything they've supported them. While it seems an odd time for such coordinated moves, something has clearly spooked policy makers and triggered this change.

The moves in bond markets appear largely responsible for the stalling stock market rally and is likely what's weighing on them once again today. Still, it's important to note that we're still far from correction territory in the vast majority of indices, even the NASDAQ which has been hit particularly hard by the tech sell-off. There's certainly no reason to panic at this stage and the moves could prove to be nothing more than a temporary adjustment.

It's not even certain in some cases whether central banks will follow through on their warnings. We'll see the first test of this next week when the Bank of Canada announces its decision on interest rates. The ECB has long been expected to reduce its bond buying again at the end of the year, while the Fed's position has not changed and the Bank of England may still hold off, given the Brexit uncertainty that's hanging over the economy.

With central banks in mind, focus will now shift to the economic data for a fundamental justification for tighter monetary policy. It's jobs report day in the US – widely viewed as the most important economic report for the world's largest economy – and people will be looking for signs that the labour market remains on track but, arguably more importantly, that wages are rising. Higher wages will be the clearest sign yet that inflation is likely to pick up in the future but we haven't seen the tighter labour market reflected here yet. Canadian jobs data will also attract a lot of attention ahead of next week's BoC decision.